After the loss to the worst-team-in-the-NBA Cleveland Cavaliers last night (for the second time this season by the way), I'm very glass half empty on the Wizards right now. This post is for all the Wizards fans out there who are still clinging to playoff hope. I'm here today to mercilessly crush your spirit. And I'm going to do it with math.
I looked at the NBA standings this morning and noted the Wizards are just 3-1/2 games back of the Charlotte Hornets for the eight seed and like I've said I don't know how many times in years past I thought "Hey, we're only a few games out of the playoffs. That much ground is going to be easy to make up the rest of the way. All we need is Charlotte to lose four more games than us and we'll be in. Heck, maybe we even get the seven seed and take the Division from Miami."
So...to address all that: yes we are, no it won't, that won't happen and there's no way. Here's why.
Right now the Charlotte Hornets are 24-25. If they keep performing at that level they will win 40 games. I can totally see the eight seed in the East having a losing record so I'm on board with Charlotte making the playoffs with a 40-42 record.
The Washington Wizards currently sport a 21-29 record. There are 32 games left on their schedule. To get to 40 wins, they will need to go 19-13 the rest of the way. What universe does anyone see this Wizards team going 19-13 in? Not me. Not this year. Sure, they have more home games left than roadies so that helps but if they execute at the same win percentage home and away they will win 10.6 more home games and 3.46 more road games. Let's round up on both and call it 11 and 4 shall we? That's still only 15 wins. They need 19. Think there's no way the Wiz can't improve on their current 6-20 road win pace? They lost to Cleveland last night. That should kill that one.
Too much of a downer so far? Need some hope? I won't give you any. Let's say Charlotte fails. Let's say the Wizards get 15 more wins and end up 36-44 and Charlotte somehow goes 8-19 the rest of the way. Can that happen? Sure. Will it? At this point in the season? Probably not. What's going to cause Charlotte's performance to crater? Also remember the Detroit Pistons are still ahead of the Wizards. Even if Charlotte bottoms out, we'd still have to pass Detroit also.
Can turnarounds happen mid-season? Sure. The Brooklyn Nets started out 8-18 this season and they've gone 20-6 since. But this late in the season? And this Wizards team? Not likely. I Tweeted last night that if the Wizards lost to the Cavs last night, the playoff dream was dead. I'm sticking by that prediction. It's up to this team to prove me wrong.
And yes, I know the Cavs don't have the worst record in the NBA anymore. Thank the Wiz for that. The New York Knicks (who the Wizards just beat by 1 with 0.4 seconds left in the game) hold that honor now. I'm sticking by my Tweet.
Wiz don’t win this #WizCavs game and they aren’t making the playoffs. Not sure they are making it anyway and I’m not sure it would be a bad thing. Just saying they won’t make it with a loss here.— Jonathan Hopwood (@jonathanhopwood) January 30, 2019
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