Looking Forward To Summer League

It's been a week since the 2014-2015 Washington Wizards season ended in stunning fashion. Last Friday night I stood in the upper deck of Verizon Center and went nuts as Paul Pierce hit his miracle game tying shot to send game six against the Atlanta Hawks into overtime and preserve the Wizards' season at least for five more game minutes. Not wanting to miss even a second of the extra session, I rushed to the bathroom so I'd be back to see the opening tip and every other moment of overtime ball.

By the time I got back to my seat, the replay had been studied and restudied and the officials determined Pierce's shot was still in his hand as time expired. Game over. Season over! What a crushing blow. I'm not sure there's been an end to a Wizards season quite like this. Half the crowd filed out; the other half lingered like their feet were glued to the floor in front of their seats. I couldn't move for about two or three minutes. Then I left.

I think the statutory mourning period for the Wizards season is probably over. Over the past six days, I haven't watched a single whole game of either the Eastern or Western Conference Finals and I've done my best to stay off Twitter, although let's face it there are few things more difficult in life than staying off Twitter. That site has changed my life for the better in so many ways, especially when it comes to my favorite basketball team.

In the last week, we've not only had both conference finals start but we've also seen (I actually did see this although honestly I almost missed it) the Minnesota Timberwolves snag the number one overall pick in next month's NBA Draft via the annual Draft Lottery show, which is probably the least exciting NBA event outside of a Knicks-Sixers game last year. The Wizards were mercifully absent from the Lottery this year for the second consecutive year. So for the Wizards, the Draft is next on June 25 and then it's time for Summer League.

2013 with Wizards forward Chris Singleton.

Can I get a "Woot! Woot!" for Summer League? God I love this event. Las Vegas. Mid-July. NBA games featuring most of the 2015 Draft class and a bunch of folks who will likely never make an NBA team. How does life get any better than this, at least for the three nights maximum that I seem to be able to stand Vegas for on any single trip? The Wizards have been going to the desert each July since the event was founded in 2004. I've been there every year since I found out about it in 2008. Every year I say I'm not going to Summer League and every year I go back. I can't possibly miss this event. It's too good. There is absolutely no place else you can get up close interactions with general managers, coaches and players from around the league. It's essential for the die hard, no-life-outside-of-basketball, NBA fan.

Summer League this year starts Friday, July 10. I'll be on a plane out there the very next morning in time for tip-off that afternoon if the Wizards are playing that day. While I'm out there I know I'm going to run into some of the same Wizards fans I see every year, familiar faces from past years. I also know I'm going to get a chance to possibly check in with Wizards President Ernie Grunfeld and head coach Randy Wittman. My favorite moment from last year's Summer League was when I congratulated Ernie on the Paul Pierce signing as he walked past my seat and got a pat on the shoulder in return. Where else could that happen?

I don't know how many Wizards season ticket holders head to Vegas for Summer League but I'm sure there's someone there besides me. It would be great if we could get a core base of fans each year out there in the desert, at least for a few days. So if there are any Wizards fans headed out there, find me on Twitter and we can spend a few minutes maybe talking about our favorite hoops team. And for the Wizards organization, I'd love it if they would host an event each year for season ticket holders. For me, that would be a small gesture that could add a ton of value for this 15 year season ticket holder. Heck, Wizards season ticket holder Jose Andres has a couple of places out there now, maybe there's a deal in there somewhere. Can't wait for July 11!!!

Where else would a Wizards fan stay except in a castle? Excalibur is cheap, convenient and reliable. I assume I'm staying here again, but you never know.

D.C. Doesn't Deserve The Wizards

Last year, the Washington Wizards won a second round playoff game for the first time since 1982. Public confidence in the team was sky high. They had just beaten the Chicago Bulls 4-1 in round one and had taken game one in Indiana from the top seeded Indiana Pacers. Fans I didn't even know were Wizards fans were seemingly everywhere. I had requests from people to buy in to the presales for season ticket holders where upper deck tickets against the Pacers were selling for over $100 as a discounted price. The secondary market was exploding. Everyone wanted in. And I'm sure the team sold a ton of season tickets. Finally, the Wizards were popular. Surely this would carry over into this season and beyond, right?

Wrong. The Wizards managed only 63 points in game three at Verizon Center against the Pacers and the whole thing came tumbling down. The secondary market dried up. My friends who were so eager to pay more than $100 for those upper deck seats could have bought better seats for way less than they paid. Game six, which turned out to be the Wizards' elimination game, didn't even sell out. Are you kidding me? A major professional sports franchise in a city where playoff games are few and far between can't sell out a game? Wow!

This season I attended 41 Wizards games during the regular season: 39 at Verizon Center and two on the road in Toronto and Miami. I've attended all three home playoff games so far and I'm going tonight. I structure significant parts of my life around this team and I love that after 15 years of doing this year in year out, my team is finally in the second round of the playoffs in consecutive years. This is significant. In watching the playoff contests in the Eastern Conference, I can't believe the Wizards don't stand as good a chance as any team of coming out of the East, even without John Wall if he can't make it back this postseason. I'm serious. Who looks really scary on our half of the bracket?

So given all that enthusiasm from this long time fan and considering how crazy things got during the playoffs last year when the team was ahead, Wizards fever must be at an all time high, right?

Cheapest ticket on Stubhub to Braves-Nats regular season game today-$36-cheapest to Wizards second round playoff game-$39

— Nick Bilka (@nbilka) May 9, 2015

Wrong again. I get that the Atlanta Hawks are not the most glamorous opponent but the secondary market for Wizards tickets is really flat, like totally down. If you wanted to make a last minute decision and head to tonight's game, you could have bought pretty decent upper deck tickets for less than $50 this morning. That's cheaper than the season ticket holder additional tickets discount price, even with all the Ticketmaster taxes and fees added to the price. I know this by the way because I bought some additional tickets for game three and ended up selling them at a loss.

I understand how deflating John Wall's injury is but come on, people, let's go out there and support our team. In round one, the support from the Verizon Center crowd was absolutely pathetic. There were times you could hear chants of "Let's go Raptors!" quite clearly in the building. Let's go Raptors?? Are you kidding me? This is not a popular franchise from north of the border, folks. We had them outnumbered at least 20-1 in my estimate and the only thing we could do is boo loudly while our guys were bringing the ball up court to drown out the opposition's chants. Not much of a home court advantage there.

I don't expect Hawks fans to be at tonight's game in any sort of numbers. I guess it's sad for the Hawks that their fans travel poorer than a franchise (Toronto) that has won only one postseason series in its history. And to be a little fair to our crowd on Saturday night, there was a lot of noise being made and I didn't hear any boos when the Hawks closed a 21 point gap to zero with about 14 seconds remaining. But tonight the Wizards are giving tickets away for people who will permit their head to be shaved before the game. This is a playoff game! Tickets aren't supposed to be free!

Now I get that this lack of popular support is as much the Wizards' doing as anything else. The team hasn't won anything in 36 years so it's understandable that about two generations of Washingtonians have grown up not caring about the Bullets / Wizards. If we actually make it through this round, we'll end up playing either the Chicago Bulls or the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals. I guarantee those games will be sold out because both those teams have significant fan bases. We'll end up with "Let's go Bulls" or "Let's go Cavs" chants at Verizon Center during that series for sure.

This year's Wizards are exciting to watch and they win. Maybe not enough for some folks (especially all the Randy Wittman critics out there) in the regular season but the playoffs are what matter aren't they? Look I know I'm preaching to the handful of die hard Wizards fans out there when I say that the entire city should be behind this team. We shouldn't be in a spot where the playoff tickets for this team are about the same price as tickets to see the Washington Nationals play the Atlanta Braves. Not in May. No way. If the city of Washington can't turn out to see this team play this week and hopefully beyond, then maybe the city just doesn't deserve this team. Either that or long time season ticket holders like me really do deserve this and so much more. Go Wizards! Let's make it 3-1 tonight.

Empty seats in Section 109 right before tipoff of game three.

New Blood

Since I arrived in the United States in 1979, just nine franchises have won an NBA title. It's the most exclusive club over those 35 plus years in the four major American sports. Over that span, there have been 16 different Super Bowl winners, 17 different Stanley Cup champions and 20 different World Series champions. In the NBA, just nine. And two of those franchises (Philadelphia and Dallas) won the title only once. The sport has been dominated by just seven franchises over the last three and a half decades. 

Last night, the Los Angeles Clippers defeated the reigning champion San Antonio Spurs in game seven of their first round series. That means that the teams that have won the NBA title for the last 16 years are no longer in the NBA playoffs and for the first time in a while, we may actually have an NBA Champion who hasn't won it recently. As a measure of how much the landscape has changed this year, consider this: there are only two franchises that have made the second round of the playoffs both this year and last year and those are the Los Angeles Clippers and the Washington Wizards. How crazy is that?

Because it might be difficult for the average NBA fan to recall when each of the remaining NBA franchises won a title (I know it was for me), here's a look back at the last time the final eight won it all.

Atlanta Hawks (1958)

The last time the Hawks hoisted an NBA trophy, they were in St. Louis and there were eight franchises in the league. EIGHT!!! And six of the eight teams made the playoffs. That year the Warriors were in Philadelphia, the 76ers were still in Syracuse and known as the Nationals, the Lakers were still in Minneapolis on the westernmost edge of the NBA and the Kings were still in Cincinnati named the Royals. How different things are now.

That year the Hawks had a first round bye and knocked off the Boston Celtics, who had won the title the previous year and would win the subsequent eight, despite Boston having home court advantage. This year, the Hawks posted the second best record in the NBA and despite that accomplishment, most folks don't seem to be giving them much of a chance, preferring the Bulls or Cavaliers as the Eastern Conference champs. For my part, I hope the Hawks really are done, but I obviously don't want the Bulls or Cavs in the Finals either.

Golden State Warriors (1975)

Before this season, the Warriors last won a division title in 1976. That was their second division title since they moved to California, having won it the previous season when they won it all. It's the only NBA title in team history. The 1974-1975 NBA season had to have been one of the tightest ever. The Warriors were the best team in the Western Conference with a 48-34 record. This year, that record would have secured them the eighth and final spot in the West.

Despite the field being a little wide open this year, the Warriors have to be considered the favorite to win it all. They killed the entire rest of the NBA; were the second best best offensive team and the best defensive team; and the only team with any success against the Dubs this year (the Spurs) were eliminated by the Clippers last night. Crazily enough, if the Warriors don't win the title, the season might be a waste. They get the banged up Grizzlies in round two then have to face the winner of the Houston Rockets - Clippers matchup.

Washington Wizards (1978)

The last time the Wizards made it to the second round of the NBA playoffs two years in a row, it was the year after the one and only title in franchise history, which they won as the Bullets. Since then, it's been mostly futility. There were a series of first round losses in the 1980s, one playoff appearance in the 1990s and a brief run of mostly non-success with Antawn Jamison and Gilbert Arenas during the last decade. 

Now it's John Wall's turn and for the first time I've been a Wizards fan, it looks like the team might actually make the Eastern Conference Finals. Either that or the sweep that the team just completed over the Toronto Raptors was just our team mopping up a group of guys that were done months ago north of the border. We'll see how we stack up against the Hawks, who sort of genuinely struggled against the Brooklyn Nets over the last two weeks and are maybe a little banged up with Al Horford and Paul Millsap nursing injuries and Thabo Sefolosha having been taken care of by New York City's finest. Series starts in a couple of hours.

Houston Rockets (1995)

When the Hawks, Warriors and Wizards (Bullets) last won NBA titles, I either didn't exist or didn't know what basketball was. But I remember all too well the Rockets' back to back titles in 1994 and 1995. Fresh out of college and a budding New York Knicks fan, the Rockets killed me in 1994 on my birthday by knocking off the Knicks in game seven in a game when John Starks, who I still love, couldn't hit a shot to save his life.

Hakeem Olajuwon, Mario Elie, Kenny Smith, Robert Horry and the newly arrrived Clyde Drexler with Sam Cassell off the bench managed to sneak in the second of their two consecutive titles in 1995. I say sneak because they won both while Michael Jordan was off playing minor league baseball. This was supposed to be the Knicks' window, but it ended up being the Rockets'. In 1995 they swept the Orlando Magic in their only finals appearance. Those unis…wow!

Chicago Bulls (1998)

I hate Michael Jordan but damn, he was good. The best even. I first hated him as a Knicks fan during the 1990s. Then in an odd twist of fate cheered loudly as he led the Wizards to two consecutive 37 win, non-playoff seasons in 2001-2002 and 2002-2003. Then applauded Abe Pollin as he showed Jordan the door in Washington and I renewed my hatred with perhaps a little less enmity after that as I realized Jordan just put our franchise's development on hold for a couple of years while wasting a number one overall pick. 

The Bulls won six titles in the 1990s and honestly, I'd hate for them to win another one. Ever. This year with Derrick Rose back at pretty much full strength the Bulls think they can knock off the Cavaliers (I hope so; hate the Cavs more than the Bulls) and then whoever they face next (I hope not). The Cavs-Bulls series promises to be one of the best in recent years. I hope it is. And I still hate Michael Jordan.

Los Angeles Clippers / Cleveland Cavaliers / Memphis Grizzlies (NEVER!)

The Los Angeles Clippers (as the Buffalo Braves) and Cleveland Cavaliers entered the NBA together in 1970 and neither has ever won a title. The Cavaliers came won one conference championship in 2007 but then were unceremoniously swept by the San Antonio Spurs in a Finals that was pretty much over before it began. Other than the current incarnation of each of these franchises (I'm counting LeBron's first go-round in Cleveland as part of the current run), neither has had much success.

This year the Cavaliers seem to be most people's favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference; it will be interesting to see the effect of the team losing Kevin Love for the rest of the season in the finale against the Boston Celtics in round one. Other than the Derrick Rose ACL tear in the 2012 playoffs, I can't remember an injury to someone this important to their team in a playoff run. I'm of course hoping the Cavs can't recover. On the Clippers' side of things, why not? I mean other than the Warriors, it's an open heat in the West, which might mean it's not open at all of course.

Then there are the Grizzlies, one of two teams who have never won anything at all (the other is the current incarnation of the Charlotte Hornets). The Grizz have it tough this year. With point guard Mike Conley on the floor, you could almost talk yourself into thinking this team has a chance against the Warriors (who they will face in the second round) but with Conley out with a facial fracture at least the first two games, they are likely to be on the path to getting the Dubs a whole lot of rest before the Western Conference finals. I'm pulling for the Grizzlies out West, but I'm not sure it's going to do any good.

The second round starts today at 1 p.m. eastern time with my beloved Washington Wizards taking on the Hawks in Atlanta. This is absolutely the best time of year. Go Wizards! I mean, why not?

The Curious Case Of Randy Wittman

It's time for what seems to be my annual blog post about Randy Wittman, in which I fly in the face of popular convention and the wishes of pretty much every diehard, casual and bandwagon Washington Wizards fan and make the case that our coach is not doing all that bad a job.

Consider Randy Wittman. Right now he has the Washington Wizards up 2-0 in their first round playoff series with the Toronto Raptors, having just completed a sweep of the first two games in Canada after losing all three games played vs. the Raps in the regular season. Speaking of the regular season, this year the Wizards posted their best single season record since the 1978-1979 season, the year after they won the NBA title and the last time they appeared in the NBA finals. Yet most Wizards fans and some national media folks are labeling Randy one of the worst coaches in the NBA and calling for his head. My question is why?

OK, so Randy's regular season record is really not that good at all. After six full seasons and three partial seasons in Cleveland, Minnesota and Washington, Randy has amassed a not so impressive 237-365 regular season record. Have you looked at some of the rosters he's had to work with in his past coaching stints? He had out of shape Shawn Kemp in Cleveland to deal with and before his first full season in Minnesota the Timberwolves traded Kevin Garnett for Al Jefferson and told Randy to make lemonade with a team whose second leading scorer that year was Rashad McCants.

It didn't start any better in Washington when he was offered the job. In D.C. he was stuck with JaVale McGee, Nick Young and an out of shape Andray Blatche as three fifths of the starting unit. But this time he checked with the team about ground rules for playing guys who he didn't believe deserved time on the court before he took the job which allowed him to bring the kind of accountability he wanted to the team and ended in his first season with him sending Blatche home for good because he was just plain out of shape and refused to try. The result for the Wizards the past two years has been two winning seasons and two playoff appearances for a roster that is totally bought into Randy's way.

I don't really think that Randy's regular season record is why ESPN ranked him 26th out of 30 coaches in the NBA this year or why that network's Bill Simmons offered the opinion  on Tony Kornheiser's radio show that Wittman should be "Fired right now. This minute, he should be fired. He's a terrible coach. He just is." These words from Simmons came immediately after talking about how much he enjoyed working with former NBA coach Doug Collins, a guy who is the poster child for not having his team's support in the trenches after flaming out in Chicago, Detroit, Washington and Philadelphia. I assume Simmons holds Collins in higher esteem as a coach that he does Randy. I'm not sure he should. Coaching isn't all about Xs and Os. Ask Collins about that.

So if it's not Randy's regular season record that's rubbing fans and ESPN the wrong way, what is it? Is it that player development has been a real problem in Washington? Or that the offense bogs down for minutes at a time in games, especially when the team holds a lead? Or is it that Randy's a little awkward and doesn't necessarily inspire confidence in the team's fans and the media? Should we pick one of those?

Let's face it, Randy is awkward. Sometimes he looks and acts like an out of touch dad struggling to deal with the kind of stuff his kids are into. He has bad knees and walks strangely; wears glasses in press conferences but not during the games; denies the value of analytics when others who are seemingly hipper and more in touch are hailing them as the wave of the future; and sometimes does stuff like spinning his clipboard around six or eight times during a critical time out while Bradley Beal looks on like "dude, what the hell are you doing?" And those faces! I'm making a #wittmanface now as I'm writing this (look it up on Twitter).

I don't think it's the awkwardness. I also don't think it's the player development, although in my opinion there's reason to be concerned with what's going on there at Verizon Center. Both Bradley Beal and Otto Porter have not made the jump I would expect of a number three overall draft pick, no matter how weak you might argue the class is. I'm not going to discuss player development with regards to Jan Vesely or Chris Singleton. I'm chalking those up to poor drafting. It's not like just the Wizards are alone in not wanting those two in the NBA. The other 29 franchises seem to agree too.

So that leaves me with offensive stagnation or something else. The offense sputtering (kind word there) sometimes is a big problem. It's especially frustrating when we blow a big lead because we decide to kill as much clock as possible. Killing clock for the Wizards generally involves John Wall dribbling for about 15 seconds or so and then trying to create something. The Wizards offense doesn't work that way. It relies on player movement and passing primarily because we don't have any isolation players, including Wall. Randy's talked about this in press conferences and we regularly see him screaming at players to move the ball and speed the game up at the ends of games.

I think the real objection Wizards fans and observers, including our friends at ESPN, have to Randy Wittman coaching the Wizards is that they are convinced there's someone out there who could turn this five-seed team into the best team in the Eastern Conference. They are looking for this team's Steve Kerr or Phil Jackson, someone to replace the coach who's taken the team from terrible to OK and can lead the team to glory. Division titles, conference titles, whatever. My opinion on this is that we better be careful what we wish for. Instead of hiring the next Steve Kerr, we might end up hiring the next Flip Saunders or Byron Scott or Brian Shaw or George Karl.

I'm not picking on Karl here, but in his last nine playoff appearances, he made it out of the first round once. Randy did that in his first try. Karl by the way was ranked 16th on ESPN's recent coaches ranking, ten spots ahead of Randy. Randy was one spot behind his former boss Saunders, the guy who led the Minnesota Timberwolves to just 16 wins this year and whose performance at the helm of the Wizards was way below the Wittman standard. Tom Thibodeau, who Randy outcoached in last year's first round playoff series, is ranked fifth; Dwane Casey, the Raptors' coach, is 13th. Hmm...

So like it or not Wizards fans, unless the Wizards fail in this first round series or they get swept in round two, I think we'll see Randy Wittman back at the helm next year. If it bothers you to have the guy who's coached the Wizards to a top 10 defensive efficiency rating in the NBA three years in a row (fifth this year by the way), has a winning postseason record and is at this point an NBA historical best 7-1 as a coach in road playoff games, then that's too bad; you are just going to have to deal with it. I'm OK with it at least for another year or so. I also think Randy's deserved it. We'll see how it goes the rest of the way in the playoffs.

Maybe a little postscript is in order, considering there are probably some Wizards fans out there foaming at the mouth at what I've written. I'm a patient guy when it comes to sports teams. I have to be: I'm a Wizards fan and season ticket holder who misses maybe two games a year and I'm a New York Jets fan. But don't for a minute think that I'm content with my beloved Wizards merely exceeding their performance of the last three and a half decades. Let me be really clear when I say that the Wizards performance since 1979 and even in the last 15 years has been a little pathetic to very pathetic.

The Wizards are the only franchise other than the Charlotte Hornets (the current version, not the ones that are now the New Orleans Pelicans) that has failed to record 49 wins in a season in the last 15 years. Heck, the Wizards haven't even gotten to 47 in a season in the past 36. They are also one of only three franchises to not win a division title in the last 36 years, joining the Memphis Grizzlies and the aforementioned Hornets in that group. 36 years and zero division titles!!! Wow!!! At least the Grizzlies and Hornets have sort of an excuse that they haven't been around that long.

So while I'm OK giving Randy another year, I want to see progress every year. The bar set by past Wizards coaches including Flip Saunders, Leonard Hamilton and Doug Collins is pretty easy to clear and Randy's doing that with flying colors. But the ultimate measuring stick is the rest of the NBA. How about a division title? Or an Eastern Conference Finals appearance? I believe Ted Leonsis and the rest of the Wizards ownership group has the same sort of standard as I'm using. We better see something soon. Go Wizards! Go Wittman!

Time Off

During the 2008-2009 NBA season, the Washington Wizards managed a mere 19 wins against 63 losses. It was the second such season turned in by the Wizards since I became a season ticket holder in the fall of 2000. That 2008-2009 season was one of failed expectations after four straight playoff appearances and the misery was capped off by a somewhat famous locker room gun incident resulting in the suspension of Gilbert Arenas. Despite all the dysfunction that season, I managed to show up for every home game that year.

My goal at the beginning of each new Wizards season is to be in my seat for all 41 regular season home contests. I am not a fair weather fan who shows up when the team is performing well and bails or sells his tickets during tough times. My obligation as a fan is to be there to show support every game and I take that obligation seriously.

Despite my best intentions, I have never had a perfect attendance record any season other than 2008-2009. Something always seems to get in the way, whether it's being away for the Christmas holidays, or a work trip or just being sick. Sick meaning in poor health by the way, not sick of the Wizards' poor play. This year, I'm failing again, having missed a game just before Christmas and I'm going to miss the last home game of the year against Atlanta because I'm taking some time off.

Taking time off during the season is extremely unusual for me. I can't remember intentionally traveling when there was a Wizards home game since maybe 2001. And that's a big maybe. I've traveled frequently during the season in the last five years but I always time my vacation with a Wizards road trip, typically a west coast, week long road trip. But this year, I'm skipping the last home game and I won't be back doing my job at Verizon Center until the playoffs. I think some of the Wizards should do the same thing I'm doing. Maybe not travel, but just skip work for a few days.

With the end of the season just six games away, the Wizards are sitting firmly in fifth place. The only team behind us who can catch up is Milwaukee and they would have to win every game and we would need to lose every game for that to happen. The Bucks have improved a lot this year, but I don't see a team that has won three of their last ten winning out.

Looking up in the standings, realistically the team can only really finish as high as fourth. The Cleveland Cavaliers (currently second) can be caught if we win every game and they lose every game and that's just not happening. There's a slim chance of catching the Toronto Raptors but we'd have to best them in win totals, since they hold the first tiebreaker as a division winner. The Chicago Bulls are sitting in third right now if they falter and the Wizards play really well, there's a slim chance we could tie them and win the tiebreaker by virtue of better conference record. But realistically, we are stuck in fifth. If nothing else, the game tonight in Memphis is almost surely a loss.

In my mind, the Wizards can do one of two things the rest of the way: (1) push hard to catch Chicago and hope things go the right way and get home court advantage for round one or (2) get ready for the playoffs by resting some folks. I'm not talking a total shutdown but maybe playing John Wall, Paul Pierce and Nenê every other game or so and giving Bradley Beal maybe two of the last six off. At this point it seems like we should be focused on trying to duplicate last year's playoff success rather than worrying about the regular season. Plus maybe it gives a guy like Otto Porter a chance to get some playing time, something our coach seems a little reluctant to do consistently.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have the team get to a 47 win mark, something I lamented a couple of years ago in this blog but if this team doesn't make the second round of the playoffs and win a couple of games, this season will be labeled a failure. Sounds strange to Wizards fans, doesn't it? In a couple of weeks, there are going to be 14 NBA teams with nothing to do; the Wizards won't be one of them. Let's do the right thing and make sure we maximize our chances the rest of the way this year. Please.

Last overpriced Verizon Center Budweiser of the regular season.

Not The Same As Last Year

I realize there's been a disgraceful lack of blogging from me recently regarding the Wizards' on court play and for that I apologize. Instead, I've focused my attention in the last month or so on exhaustively documenting how awesome my All-Star Weekend experience was this year. There are two reasons for this: (1) All-Star Weekend WAS awesome and (2) the Wizards' on court play has been quite frankly as disgraceful over the past month or so as my lack of blogging about their on court play. A 10-18 run over the past two months with two at least five game losing streaks while I've been asked to pony up $800 more per person for my seats next year doesn't exactly fill me with enthusiasm about my team. Having said that, I remain as committed as ever.

As a side note, the Wizards likely should have had a third five plus game losing streak in the last two months. We needed a clutch end of regulation shot by John Wall and double overtime against Charlotte last Friday night to manage to salvage a 1-5 record between March 20 and 29. I've left a number of games early in my 15 years as a Wizards season ticket holder. Last Friday's game was the only one I've had to return to my seat after watching the end of regulation on one of the tiny TVs on the 100 level concourse. Call me cynical, damaged or whatever you want.

But the Wizards did get some good news last night: with the Boston Celtics' victory over the Charlotte Hornets last night, the team managed to make the playoffs for the second straight year. Now I realize when you win more than two thirds of your games through the first half of the season, you should have some sort of expectation that the postseason is securely in sight but we are talking about the Wizards here after all. Things are never that easy.

Although there are still eight games to go, it looks like the Wizards are going to slide into the five slot in the Eastern Conference and end up as a road opponent taking on the Toronto Raptors, a team that has slid down the ladder almost as much as the Wizards have since January 27. The Raptors have managed a record of 14-15 since the Wizards beat the Lakers in Los Angeles. Sure, there's a possibility we could outplay the Raps by two games the rest of the way, but honestly we are probably not cleaning up with our remaining schedule, not with five of the last six on the road. A couple of weeks ago coming off a five game winning streak it looked like we might be able to get the third seed, now not so much.

Last year the Wizards were playing well down the stretch, although they only managed to get to 44 wins, which admittedly is tied for second most by the franchise in 35 years. But the team last year was facing no expectations and making the playoffs alone was a meaningful goal. This year the team has obviously faltered, and what looked like a 50 win season is more likely to end up as another 44 win season. Maybe we'll get lucky and win a couple of more games. That would get the team their highest win total since 1979.

But in order for real success to be declared this season, the team has to realistically get back to the second round of the playoffs. The measuring stick this year is not the same as it was last year. The Wizards might just make it. For one they have a weaker opponent facing them than they might have had, although I remember all too well that Toronto has posted a 3-0 record against Washington this year. And as suspect as I think our roster is sometimes, when the team is playing well, they look like they can beat just about anyone. Well, a four seed in the Eastern Conference anyway.

This is not the same as last year. There are expectations based on last year's performance. Just being there is not enough. We'll see in a couple of weeks if our team is worthy.

Championship this year? Maybe not. Not counting the Wizards out. Just being realistic.

The Arenas Effect

DISCLAIMER: I had this post mostly ready to go in mid-January of this year but got distracted with other things. I figured I could hold it a bit. After all, who's going to write something about the number zero in the NBA during the 2014-2015 season? Well, about six weeks ago, Tom Ziller, whom I follow on Twitter and read regularly, beat me to the punch. Go figure. Before you read my post, go read Tom's post. He said it first after all. Plus he has a really cool graph.

I was sitting with my girlfriend a couple of months ago watching some Wizards game on TV (I believe it was the January 14 game at Chicago) when she asked me "What's with all these guys wearing zero?" My immediate response was "It's because of Gilbert Arenas." This was not the first time she had asked me this question. That night it was because Aaron Brooks was playing in the game for Chicago but before that I'm sure I'd been asked the question about Russell Westbrook, Damian Lillard, Avery Bradley and probably a handful of other players. Each time I was asked the same question in the past, I gave the same response. So in between work, an All-Star Weekend in New York and some discouraging play from my favorite basketball squad, I thought I'd better find out if I was right.

My uneducated and unresearched  impression about zero jerseys was that the number of players wearing that jersey had been on the rise recently. Like really noticeably. Turns out that hunch is correct. According to Basketball-Reference.com, there have been 62 players who have worn the number zero since the 1946-1947 season, which the NBA now considers its first season. Of those 62 players, only 11 wore the number before the 2001-2002 season, which was Gilbert Arenas' rookie season. In case you are counting seasons, that's 11 players in the first 55 years of the league's existence and 51 in the last 14 years.

So something's going on there, right? There's an average of one player every five years until the end of the 2000-2001 season and an average of 3.64 players per year after that. That's a 1821% increase in zero wearers between those two spans. The numbers are a bit skewed here. The first player to wear zero was Johnny Jorgensen who played just one game for the Chicago Stags during the 1948-1949 season. The next time someone donned a zero jersey was 1982, when Orlando Woolridge suited up for the Chicago Bulls (something about Chicago I guess), so there was a very large zero-less period in the league there.

Looking at the recent numbers in more detail provides additional clarity to the zero jersey's upswing. From the 2001-2002 season to the 2007-2008 season (or from Gilbert's rookie season until the last time he made the All-Star team), there were an average of 5.3 players in the league each year wearing zero. The following season (2008-2009), that number stays pretty much the same at 5. This five or so number is generally attributable to multiple players wearing the number zero consistently for several seasons in a row: Walter McCarty at the beginning of this period; Arenas throughout; Jeff McInnis in the middle; and Aaron Brooks and Russell Westbrook at the end.

Starting with the 2010-2011 season, though, the numbers explode. That year, nine players wore zero. The next year, 12. Ever since then, the number of players wearing zero has never dropped into single digits. The last two years have seen 15 players wearing zero and during the 2012-2013 season, the number peaked at 17. Something happened from 2001 to today that caused about half the teams in the NBA to sport a number zero on their roster consistently for five years after pretty much nothing (or zero if you prefer) in the league's first fifty plus years. I'm making the case it's all because of Gilbert.

Gilbert chose the number zero when he entered college at the University of Arizona. He chose that number because the number he wanted, 25, was retired at the University of Arizona (Steve Kerr) and, according to Gilbert, "Zero is the number of minutes people predicted I would play my freshman year at Arizona." It became the biggest chip on Gilbert's shoulder that he carried until the time he signed his six year, $111 million contract in the summer of 2008. So did other players copy Gil?

Some of the Gilbert Arenas influence among players in the NBA is pretty obvious. Larry Hughes, Nick Young and Andray Blatche all wore (or wear) zero playing for teams after they left the Wizards. All three of those guys were Gilbert's guys, either as a back court running mate (Hughes) or as a protégé of sorts (Young and Blatche). I didn't research interviews with these guys to get their first hand rationale for wearing zero. I figured I didn't have to. These guys are slam dunks.

It is perhaps more informative to seek out the logic for some other guys who wear zero, notably Jeff Teague, Aaron Brooks, Avery Bradley, Russell Westbrook and Damian Lillard. Each of these guys has either made an All-Star appearance or has been in the league long enough to sign multiple significant deals. I struck out with Teague but found something on the other four.

Avery Bradley claims he wears number zero because when he got to the University of Texas he felt like he had to prove himself all over again. Gee, who does that sounds like? Russell Westbrook wanted the number 4 when he got to college but it was unavailable, so he decided to go with zero to represent a new beginning. Yep, it sounds like I've heard that before. Aaron Brooks had a similar experience when he found the number 30 available when he got to the University of Oregon. And Damian Lillard's story is that his zero is actually an O, symbolizing his journey from Oakland to Ogden (Utah) to Portland, Oregon.

Bradley, Westbrook and Brooks totally copied Gilbert. Their stories may be significantly different for them to believe they are not copying Gil, but they are. If Gilbert hadn't paved the way for zero symbolizing a new beginning or a need to prove oneself all over again, they never would have come up with it. And I'm totally not buying Lillard's story. Would he wear number 1 if he had been selected by the Indiana Pacers because I looks like 1? I don't think so. 

Why do I think I'm arrogant enough to question these guys' stories? Here's why.

My opinion is Gilbert started getting really popular league-wide when he won the NBA's Most Improved Player award after the 2002-2003 season and peaked with his three All-Star appearances in 2005 through his All-Star start in 2007 (the first player wearing zero to appear in the All-Star Game by the way). All-Star starters are of course determined through a popularity contest known as fan voting and in December 2006 and January 2007, Gilbert was arguably the hottest player in the game. Hotter even than Kobe.

So assuming kids in high school are watching the NBA and switching their numbers from whatever they had before to zero to match their newest hoop hero in Gilbert Arenas, we are looking at four (assuming a switch in sophomore year of high school and one year of college) to eight years (assuming a switch in freshman year of high school and four years of college) before those same kids are in the NBA. That would put the zero explosion based on Gilbert's influence between the 2009-2010 season and the 2013-2014 season, which is exactly what happened assuming kids adopted the number between 2003 and 2007. Brooks was a freshman at Oregon in 2003, Westbrook followed at UCLA two years later and Lillard started at Weber State in '08, a year before Bradley graduated high school.

This is a theory and the math sort of magically works out, but my opinion is that it is correct. Whatever you want to think, that's my story and I'm sticking to it. Today, you see kids in college wearing zero all the time and they are likely wearing the number because of Russell Westbrook or Damian Lillard or some other player. But for me (and likely for a lot of other folks), the number zero begins and ends with Gilbert Arenas. 'Nuff said!