Wizards 2015-2016 Over / Under

It's October 30. Game two of the 2015-2016 Wizards NBA season is tonight in Milwaukee and despite the lack of national media attention, I'm bullish on the Wizards. Most preseason predictions I have seen have the Miami Heat or Atlanta Hawks (but mostly Miami) winning the Southeast Division and the Wizards finishing with a win total anywhere from 41 to 47. I'm hoping for more.

 

This is not the first time I've felt this way. There have been years when the Wizards finished horribly and completely out of the playoff picture when I thought we had a shot at winning at least the Southeast. But I think this year is different and there are a ton of unknowns going into the season that the national media can't be all that smart on: new small ball offense, John Wall and Bradley Beal's development over the summer, a deeper bench and hopefully a fully awakened and ready to produce Otto Porter.

 

So in my glee and excitement at the new season, I've decided to take a stab at predicting some performance this year. If I'm right about all these, I'll be a happy man at the end of the season. If I'm wrong, I'll stop doing this forever.

45.5

Wins. Vegas opened the over / under betting for Wizards wins this year at 45.5, so that's the number I'm using. Two seasons ago the Wizards won 45 games, which tied the highest regular season total since the 1978-1979 season when the then Bullets won 54 games. Last year they bested their previous season by a single game and crept within one win of 47, a regular season win total achieved by every franchise in the league the last 15 years except the Wizards.

Last year the Wizards started the regular season 19-6 which would have put them on a 62 win projection. By the mid-point of the season, they had 28 victories under their belts for a 56 win pace. But just after the Martin Luther King holiday, the bottom fell out and they managed just a 4-13 record over their next 17 games. And they still managed to win more games than the franchise had enjoyed over the past 35 years. This year, I'm thinking there's no mid-season slump and this is finally the year the Wizards manage to get that elusive 47. Not going much higher than that and I'm not picking a number, but I think they beat it. I say OVER.

10.0

John Wall Assists per Game. 8.3, 8.0, 7.6, 8.8, 10.0. Those are John Wall's assist per game averages for the first five years of his NBA career. This year, the Wizards and head coach Randy Wittman have concocted a "pace and space" offense that pushes the speed of the offensive execution game plan in the hopes of outrunning every other team in the league. During the preseason that ended just last week, the Wizards had the league's best offense, averaging 112.3 points per contest. That's a lot higher than last year. More points equals more assists, right?

 

Maybe not. I mean, yes, the Wizards will likely have more assists if they score more points, but I'm not wholly convinced John Wall's assist average goes up. Other people can pass the ball, right? I may have no idea what I'm talking about here but I'm thinking that's what's going to happen and Wall's assist number will actually drop this year. I'm going UNDER here.

64.0

Bradley Beal Games Played. Why 64.0? Because that is the average number of games Brad has hit the floor in his first three seasons in the league. In his first two years in a Wizards uniform, it was leg issues which kept Bradley from playing a full schedule; last year it was a wrist injury. Despite how high everyone is on Beal, if he can't stay healthy for a full year at a time, then he's not going to have the impact everyone hopes he will have and he's not going to get that max deal he's looking for that will make him the second highest paid Wizard next year behind Kevin Durant. Hey, it's worth a shot...

 

So we're one game in and so far, so good. Bradley not only looks like he's operating in playoff mode as far as his production goes but he also looks way more serious. I'll throw out a bit of a non sequitur and offer the opinion that this change in demeanor is going to carry his season. He needs to be out on the court a lot more both for himself and for the team. His body has gone through three seasons and may have learned what it can do and what it can't do. I'm OVER on this one. Brad plays and the Wizards win. More than 45.5 games anyway.

0.5

Halftime Shows. Think you are getting Steve Max and Simon Sez this year? What about Drums of Thunder? Or University of Maryland Gymkhana? Or Quick Change? Those guys are fantastic.

 

I'm thinking no. Based on the last couple of years sitting in my seats at Verizon Center, I'm thinking no way! I know I've already written about this issue twice in this blog so I won't rant again. I'm prepared for a lot of kids playing basketball at halftime this year. I'm safely thinking I'm taking the UNDER on this one.

0.5

Division Titles. This is my sixteenth year as a Wizards season ticket holder. Know how many banners we've raised for winning anything in that time? Zero. None. Zip. Zilch. Squadoosh! No NBA Championships, no Conference Titles and no Division Titles. Every other team except Memphis (same division as San Antonio, Dallas and Houston) and the current version of the Charlotte Hornets has one for winning their division in that span.

 

I know most people don't care about a division winner, especially now that the NBA has changed the rules to deny division winners a guaranteed top four seed, but the Wizards winning the Southeast Division is my highest hope for this season. I get that it doesn't mean much but there are no Wizards banners hanging at Verizon Center. And if nothing else, it would mean a ton to me. So I'm going with the emotional decision on this one and picking the OVER. Please. Please. Please.

 

I've been historically terrible about predicting the future so I don't know why I'm even bothering but that's my take on the Wizards season at the beginning. Let's see how I feel about all this in mid-April when the regular season is over. Let's go Wizards! Win in Milwaukee tonight!!!

Now What?

So the Washington Wizards 2014-2015 campaign is done. Has been now for about three weeks. I'm now reduced to rooting as hard as possible for any scenario that will have the Cleveland Cavaliers end their season without an NBA championship. It's sad, I know. The Golden State Warriors can't possibly lose to LeBron James, a hobbled Kyrie Irving and a bench full of also rans and LeBron hangers on, can they? I'm hoping not. Go Dubs!

The Wizards season this year, one could argue, is the most successful they have had it three and a half decades. Actually there's not much doubt about that just viewing that statement factually. The Wizards won more regular season games than they have since 1979, made the second round of the playoffs for only the third time since that same year and managed a better playoff record at 6-4 than at any time since 1979. Yet other folks seem to be lamenting that this season was unsuccessful because the team didn't achieve everything they could have. Well, maybe so. Or maybe not.

For the last two years, I've published a post listing what I think the Wizards should do in the offseason. I'm not going to do that this year, although I've been surprisingly prescient with my posts in 2013 and 2014. I'm not sure if that means the Wizards are listening; or what I'm proposing is common sense; or that I just read a lot of what other people write about the Wizards; or I've just gotten lucky. Regardless, I'm not going to do that this year. Instead I'm going to ask a series of questions. A six pack if you will. That's it. Nothing more.

One could argue that this offseason is different than it has been in years and years for the Wizards. For the first time since 2008, the Wizards face the prospect of having a first round draft pick that is outside the top five. Astonishing as it sounds, it's true. In the last six years we've had four first round draft picks at 1, 5, 3 and 3. The other two years we had none. You know who our three first round picks were the summer before we picked John Wall? JaVale McGee (18), Nick Young (16) and Oleksiy Pecherov (18). Suffice it say we are not that good at drafting in the late teens. This year we pick 19th.

And for the first time in years, it actually seems like with the right moves in June, July and August, the Wizards could be bound for the NBA Finals. Seriously, who besides the Cavaliers is going to stand in our way? How long is the Hawks success sustainable? Those two questions don't count as two of this post's questions. Let's get to those other six right now.

Question 1: Is it time for Ernie and Randy to go?

I know what most people are hoping that I'll say here. I can almost hear the dozen or so people reading this chanting "Yes!" I'm going to disappoint you. I'm not saying yes. Not yet.

I think if you have read every word I've ever written about the Wizards in this blog (I know, who on Earth has done that?), I've been very kind to both Ernie Grunfeld and Randy Wittman. I remember what life as a Wizards fan was like before either of those two got here. In the front office it was terrible personnel decision after terrible contract after terrible trade with a sprinkling of luck thrown in now and then. In the coaching ranks, it was a revolving door of guys who were largely ineffective at winning (Eddie Jordan's the exception here), building a professional locker room culture (Eddie's not an exception here) or getting the guys on the wood to play defense (or here). So rather bemoaning what we've got, I'd rather stand pat. For now. Sort of.

So I get that Ernie Grunfeld's draft record is spotty at best. Not just with the Wizards but going all the way back to his time with the New York Knicks in the 1990s and with the Milwaukee Bucks in the early '00s. But he's pulled off some pretty good trades (Caron Butler for Kwame Brown, anyone? Antawn Jamison for Devin Harris?) and signed some pretty good guys that have panned out really well from Gilbert Arenas (the first time, not the second time) to Paul Pierce (if only we had the team option…). Maybe we need to relieve Ernie of his duties come Draft night and get someone else to make the pick.

I also get that Randy Wittman is not the most glamorous of coaches, that his teams in Washington the last two years have maybe underperformed in the regular season and that there are some fairly vocal critics with national platforms (Bill Simmons) calling Randy a "terrible coach" among other things.

But here's the thing. Tom Thibodeau had tremendous success in the regular season with the Chicago Bulls in the last five seasons but he maybe wore his players out on meaningless games in late October through mid-April. He's no longer employed as a head coach in the NBA. A lot of people seem to think Mark Jackson is an awesome coach and deserves a lot of credit for the Golden State Warriors being in this year's NBA Finals. But his players and coaches were in almost open rebellion against him. Randy's players have nothing but praise for him and John Wall credits Randy with making him play defense. Mark Jackson is also no longer employed as a head coach in the NBA. And if Bill Simmons is so great, has anyone ever offered him a spot as an NBA head man or even as an assistant? I'm guessing no.

Randy wins in the playoffs and his teams play defense. That's enough for now. Let's see what he can do with a stretch four, if Ernie can find one. Coach stays!

Question 2: Are Bradley Beal and Otto Porter really as good as they were in the postseason?

Regular season and postseason stats for the 2014-2105 NBA season for Bradley Beal and Otto Porter are below.

Bradley Beal

• Regular Season: 33.4 MPG, 15.3 PPG, 3.1 APG.
• Playoffs: 41.8 MPG, 23.4 PPG, 4.6 APG.

Otto Porter

• Regular Season: 19.4 MPG, 6.0 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 0.9 APG.
• Playoffs: 33.1 MPG, 10.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 1.8 APG.

These two guys were number three overall picks in consecutive NBA drafts and they are both 21 years old. Bradley was able to be far more aggressive in the playoffs and looked like he deserved to be a player licking his chops for a max contract extension next summer. And Porter…wow! I mean this kid grew up in the postseason. I think he's ready to start next season, even if Paul Pierce finds it in his heart to exercise his player option and come back to D.C.

Beal and Porter now seem to be the key to the Wizards making the leap from a second round hoping for more playoff team to a Finals contender. Based on this postseason, there is every indication they are both ready. I'm hoping the answer to this question is yes.

Question 3: Will we ever see another legit halftime show at Verizon Center?

A little over a month into the 2013-2014 season, I wrote a blog post about the lack of halftime shows at Wizards games season to date. It was honestly a bit of a filler post, something to write about between gushing about the Martell Webster bobblehead I picked up earlier that month and the Nenê bobblehead I was looking forward to later the same month. I figured eventually we'd end up with a serious halftime show and that it was just sort of a scheduling issue that had forced us to watch kids playing basketball and local folks singing in the inaugural Monumental Talent Showcase that year. I wasn't really intending it to be an honest criticism of the Wizards organization. Besides, I don't really care that much.

But now a season and three quarters later, we still haven't had a professional halftime show. I saw one in Milwaukee in the one game I saw up there in the very cold winter of 2014 and I was only there for one game. But in the 79 regular season games and ten playoff games I've sat through in the last two NBA seasons at Verizon Center, I've seen none. Not a one. Zip. Zilch. No Beale Street Flippers, no Drums of Thunder, no University of Maryland Gymkhana, no Quick Change, no nothing.

Now if this is all a cost saving measure to keep season ticket prices low low low, I'm good with all that. But there's been no sort of statement to that effect or any other rationale offered. In the meantime, I'm starting to suffer from an inferiority complex. If other teams have halftime shows, why can't we? And keep in mind I don't really care. It just feels like we are being cheap and that bothers me. I'm hoping it's not a sign of other cost cutting measures to come.

Question 4: Can the Wizards draft someone who can shoot free throws?

The Wizards free throw shooting during the past couple of seasons has driven me CRAZY! They are FREE! For nothing. Nobody's going to block or challenge the shot. Get good at making these things and maybe just maybe we win some more close games.

The Wizards ranked 21st in the NBA this past season in free throw percentage at a paltry 74.2 percent. 21st is not a good spot to be in. Looking at the team numbers, it doesn't really seem like the Wizards free throw shooting was a deterrent to winning more games. I mean if they jumped into the top 10 in the league and shot 76.2 percent like the 10th place Sacramento Kings, they would only add 0.4 points per game to their point total (based on 21.4 attempts per game). Let's face it, the Wizards didn't lose any games by 0.4 points this year.

But here's my rub with the Wizards and free throw shooting. While their free throw percentage wasn't that much of a difference maker based on the season stats, the NBA doesn't award the Larry O'Brien Trophy on that basis. The Wizards had some good free throw shooting nights and some horrible free throw shooting nights. It's the number of horrible nights I'd like to see reduced. Just look at game five of the Atlanta series, where the Wizards shot just 68.8 percent from the charity stripe. Add a couple more makes and that game is ours in regulation or at worst we take it to overtime.

So who's going to be that dependable clutch free throw shooter for Washington's professional basketball team? Well, I don't know. Nobody shot better than Rasual Butler this year at the line and he shot 79.1 percent. That's lower than the combined average of everyone on the Memphis Grizzlies squad  who led the league in free throw percentage. We really don't have a stone cold ice in his veins knockdown end of game guy.

What does my question have to do with all this? Well, I guess it's a plea not to draft someone who can't shoot free throws. Look at the Wizards' last eight first round picks and how they fared before the NBA from the free throw line.

• Otto Porter, Jr.: 75.1 percent. Good.
• Bradley Beal: 76.9 percent. Really good.
• Chris Singleton: 59.2 percent. Really, Chris?
• Jan Vesely: 61.6 percent. Stunned this is higher than Singleton's.
• Trevor Booker: 62.1 percent. Not good.
• Kevin Seraphin: 60.0 percent. Small sample size but not good.
• John Wall: 75.4 percent. Good.
• JaVale McGee: 51.4 percent. Do I need to use this to prove that this pick was a stretch?

I know we shouldn't use any sort of litmus test when it comes to drafting players, but could we at least find someone who can shoot 70 percent from the line? Maybe that would help us next year.

Question 5: Can the Wizards please get rid of Wale?

I hope the answer is yes. What does this guy do to add value? And will he just bail if the Wizards ever get less than good again? Where was he during the lean times? Apparently rooting for the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Denver Nuggets while uttering the words "I gotta be honest, I'm not the biggest Wizards fan." Well guess what, dude? I AM one of the biggest Wizards fan and to see you installed as the Wizards' Creative Liaison doesn't thrill me that much.

OK, so maybe I'm just ranting here and I'm being really unfair to Wale. I get that most people don't find his opening-credits-to-a-Wizards-home-game music as discordant and awkward as me. And I'm probably really sore about someone who professed some love for the Cavs and Nuggets and none for the Wiz a couple of years ago now draped all over my favorite team as if he'd been there applauding night in and night out while JaVale McGee and Andray Blatche called Verizon Center home. At least he shows up and give the team some love now right?

Wrong. And this is what really gets me. I admit I missed two games during the regular season and maybe Wale made an appearance at both. But honestly, I only remember him showing up to two regular season games this year: opening night against Milwaukee (when he was performing live) and the April 3 game against the New York Knicks. Two games?!?!? (or four if he attended the two I missed) Are you kidding me? The Wizards' press release about Wale's appointment as Creative Liaison said he is a "die-hard Wizards fan." I don't think so.

Question 6: Are we really pinning all our hopes on luring Kevin Durant back home?
First of all, if we are and that's our strategy for winning an NBA title and securing a future perennial contender for long suffering Wizards fans, you could make me the General Manager and I could make that pitch. I might need some help with some of the finer points like filling out the roster with bargain contracts but I could handle the heavy lifting.

The two questions I have about this strategy (no these don't count as two additional questions) are can we afford him and do we need him? Barring any unexpected changes in the NBA Players' Union's strategy, the salary cap is set to explode during the 2016 offseason and the maximum salary superstar players can receive will skyrocket along with the cap. John Wall's current just less than $16 million salary during the 2016-2017 season is going to seem like a bargain and Marcin Gortat's $12 pricetag is going be dirt cheap. But the new way higher limits on contracts are going to fill in the gap. Bradley Beal AND Kevin Durant? You know KD already expects the max. He already said so! Get ready to open your checkbook, Ted Leonsis, and Ernie Grunfeld better be trolling the D-League for bargains. I don't see it.

Assuming both Bradley Beal and Otto Porter next year play anything like they did in the postseason this year (see question 2 above), do we even need Durant? I know this is tempting fate here but think about it. How good is a starting lineup of 27 year old John Wall, 24 year olds Bradley Beal and Otto Porter, 33 year old Marcin Gortat (with very low mileage) and anyone else to kick off the 2017-2018 season? Split Durant's salary between a serviceable starting four and a couple of production bench players and who's going to challenge that team?

That's it. I've just told every Washington hoops fan dying for KD in a Wizards uniform that we don't need him. What else can I offer? Probably should shut up now.

What Happened To Halftime Shows?

With Monday's tenth home game of the season in the books, the Washington Wizards regular season on F Street is now about a quarter complete and to date, we have not had a halftime show at Verizon Center. Now there's a total disclaimer to be made here. By halftime show, I don't mean some kids playing a game of basketball for a few minutes and I don't mean the newly rolled out Monumental Network Talent Showcase, which features local people doing what they do in front of crowds, sort of a low budget America's Got Talent I guess. We've had both of those things in spades this year.

By halftime show, I mean an honest to God, professional NBA halftime show like we used to get in years past. I thought the Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiated before the 2011-2012 season would put a few more dollars in the owners' pockets. I didn't see cutting the halftime entertainment budget as a realistic fallout of the new CBA. And I'm not asking for this every single game. I'm fine with kids playing hoops in the intermission every other game or two out of every three even. But let's get something different in the 14 minutes between the second and third quarters once in a while.

There's a little bit of an irony in me writing this post, because I generally don't care for the NBA's attitude that you must be entertained every minute that you are in the arena. I've claimed in the past, and I still maintain this attitude, that I am there to watch the game. I don't need fancy pyrotechnic laden player introductions, or stuff thrown into the crowd at every time out (although I pine for the suddenly extinct Chipotle Burrito Dash this year) or even, yes I'll say it, halftime shows. I also think there's a lot of merit in having local youth basketball teams come in and play on the Wizards court. I bet some of these kids are justifiably thrilled.

But over the last 13 years plus, there have genuinely been some halftime shows which are awesome, whether it's rescue dogs catching frisbees; Rubberboy stuffing his double jointed body through toilet seats and tennis racquets; guys jumping on trampolines in skis; or athletic displays like the University of Maryland Gymkhana and the Beale Street Flippers. Some of these shows are worth keeping my butt in my seats while the halftime speeches are going on in both locker rooms.

So let's assume for a moment that we will actually get real halftime shows at some point this season. I'd like to consider this post my pitch to management that if there's a tight budget for this stuff, put all your money on the biggest bang for the buck. I'll take 38 games worth of the Talent Showcase and kids chucking it at the hoop from the three point line if I can see my three favorite halftime shows of all time which I'll list in reverse order below.

Number Three: Red Panda

Contrary to the name, this halftime act does not feature any red pandas. Red Panda is actually an Asian woman riding an eight foot high unicycle flipping bowls onto her head while some vaguely Chinese (?) series of about 12 notes plays over and over and over again. Sound exciting? It actually is. The accuracy with which this woman flips bowls onto her head is astounding. I must have seen this act at least 10 times and I think she missed one flip once. The hypnotic rhythm of the music is mesmerizing too. I can sometimes hear that trademark sequence of notes at halftime when I'm watching the NBA on TV and I know exactly what's happening in the arena.

Every so often I think about ways people make a living and am baffled as to how some people make a buck. I'm not sure if this act is her profession, a side gig, a way of seeing the country one NBA arena at a time or whatever but I'd love to know just how she came up with this. Did she start out on a small unicycle and start flipping bowls onto her head or did she master a really high unicycle and then just get bored riding the thing around so added bowl flipping as a way to make it more interesting? And was the act a case of turning a hobby into a way to get some extra cash or was there a plan all along? Too many questions here. Some of these questions were answered when she appeared on America's Got Talent doing her thing. It's missing the music but check it out here.

Number Two: Drums of Thunder

There's something slightly off about a group of fourth and fifth graders from Montclair, New Jersey trained in their elementary school to play an elaborate percussion routine for paid engagements all over the mid-Atlantic with their band director, Louis D'Amico. I'm not sure how that works. Do the kids get paid? Does the school get part of the money? I mean this is a public school supported and funded by the state. Just like with Red Panda, there are questions I have about these guys that I probably won't ever know the answers to. But I know one thing for sure, these guys can play.

I never really embraced all percussion musical performances. I never got into the mostly percussion Carl Palmer side of Emerson  Lake and Palmer's Works, Volume One although that may have been because that entire ELP project pretty much sucked. But listening to and watching Drums of Thunder multiple times makes one appreciate the difficulty and precision with which tens of elementary school kids play drums and cymbals in a completely coordinated fashion for six or seven minutes solid. And I always love the part of the show where D'Amico takes off his jacket and twirls it over his head and makes whoever is paying attention go crazy, even though I know it's coming every time. I'm not sure about the dancing routine that he's added in the last five years or so for some of the boys; that seems a bit sideways. Nonetheless, I'd love to see them back at Verizon Center sometime this year. Check out the video on the Drums of Thunder website.

Number One: Quick Change

And then there's Quick Change. Far and away way way way way better than any other halftime entertainment I have ever seen. It's almost not fair to label these two as halftime entertainment.

Their act, which involves an astounding number of costume and hair changes by primarily Dania but also by David, who orchestrates the whole affair, is literally one of the most amazing things I have ever seen in my life. I must have seen this act a dozen times from multiple locations in Verizon Center and I still can't figure out how the whole thing works even though it's right there in front of me and everyone else in the building. My friend Mike and I have had multiple discussions about how we have the whole thing figured out before watching Quick Change only to retract our statements right after we are done watching. I don't get it and I likely never will.

All of that, of course, is the reason why Quick Change is so compelling. It's magic and I know there's no such thing, but multiple watchings get me no closer to figuring out how they do it. I would take seeing these two this season only rather than having Red Panda and Drums of Thunder every year for the next three years. They are that good. I don't know what's going on with NBA halftime acts and America's Got Talent but just like Red Panda, they took their turn. The looks on the judges' faces are priceless.

The first quarter of the season is done. We still have three more to go. So if anyone in Wizards management happens to read this, please hear my plea and get the three acts above in place sometime during the 2013-2014 season. I'll thank you if you do.