Excuses

Before the 2018-2019 NBA season began, Wizards owner Ted Leonsis gave an interview where he offered some very interesting soundbites about the then upcoming Wizards campaign. Let's check a few of them out.

"We need to raise the expectations. We have to make the playoffs. I'd like us to win 50 games. I'd like us to go to the Eastern Conference Finals."

"We have one of the highest payrolls in the league with the Wizards. They have a beautiful, world-class practice facility. They're healthy entering the year."

"If you have this practice facility and one of the highest payrolls in the league and you're getting well-tended for your health, nutrition and the like. No excuses."

So, let's see where we are after tonight's loss to the Chicago Bulls, leaving our beloved team 5 games out of the playoffs with just 10 games to play (Miami is still playing as I write this post so it will either be 5.5 or 4.5 by the end of the night). 50 wins? Nope; can't win more than 40 at this point. Eastern Conference Finals? Nope. How do I know that last one when the Eastern Conference Finals aren't here for at least another couple of months yet? Well because quite simply if you don't make the playoffs, you can't make the Eastern Conference Finals. "No playoffs?" I say? when Ted said we have to make them and the team isn't mathematically eliminated yet? That's right, no playoffs. No 50 wins. No Eastern Conference Finals. No playoffs.

So assuming I'm right, what now? Ted said no excuses, right? What will that mean? Defining a vision for the club for the future? Firing the coach? Firing our President of Basketball Operations for life Ernie Grunfeld? 

I'm guessing no on all three. I'm usually a glass half full type of guy but when it comes to these Wizards and the management structure in place, I'm seeing the glass half empty or less than that every time. It helps me to not be so disappointed. My prediction? We're getting a whole pile of excuses. Here's my top 10 list of excuses Ted might roll out at the end of the season. Call this a pre-emptive shot across the bow. Maybe Ted will be too embarrassed to use any of these when the team officially gets eliminated from the postseason.

1. John Wall got injured. Twice. So did Dwight Howard and Markieff Morris.

This is the obvious, number one excuse. I guarantee this one is going to be used to explain why the team didn't make the playoffs. Heck, Ted even said the team was healthy entering the year (they weren't!). Here's the thing about no excuses. Any reason you offer for not achieving your one goal ("we have to make the playoffs") is an excuse. There's no parsing of language to go on here. A reason is an excuse. Getting hurt is an excuse. Is getting hurt a legitimate reason to underperform? Sure. But he said no excuses. 

Who out there feels that even without John Wall and Dwight Howard that the Wizards are a playoff team? My hand is up on this one. The fact that a team with this much healthy talent can't make the postseason or finish with a winning record comes down to the fit between players being terrible or coaching just not working. Take your pick! Pick both, if you want. But it's one of those, unless you believe a Bradley Beal-led team is actually worse than the Orlando Magic.

2. We traded Otto Porter.

He can't really use this one as an excuse, right? I mean the week before this trade happened Ted said he wasn't going to trade Otto. And he was under no obligation to do so. If this is offered as an excuse (and honestly, I don't expect anyone to do that) then this is for sure of the team's own making.

3. Kelly Oubre wasn't going to re-sign with the team.

Ahh...the Kelly Oubre for Trevor Remember-How-Good-He-Was-Last-Time-He-Played-Here Ariza trade. Moving on from a player who showed flashes of brilliance along with a long way to go in exchange for a savvy vet who is a defensive stopper.

Or was, prior to this year. The theory here was that Ariza was going to be the compass to guide this directionless team forward into the future and that the team would woo him into staying in that savior role all the way deep into the playoffs of the future via a generous multi-year deal with a player option on the last year. After all, Oubre wasn't going to sign for the kind of money the Wiz would have available, right? Doesn't matter I guess. Another swing and a miss by our front office here. Don't think Oubre would re-sign? Nobody can say for sure can they? My guess is Ariza walks or the Wiz hand him a way too rich contract that will take multiple second round draft pick sweeteners to unload.

4. We didn't know what we had in Tomas Satoransky.

By we, this excuse means Wizards management, Ernie Grunfeld but most especially head coach Scott Brooks, who also didn't know what he had in Thomas Bryant or Troy Brown or Wes Johnson or Devin Robinson (who?) or Ron Baker. The list could go on and on and on. And yes, some of those players listed (hi, Wes Johnson and Ron Baker!) are those who got playing time and shouldn't have. You can't use the excuse that your head coach who works for you won't recognize talent and basketball IQ. Get rid of him! It's gotten so bad that if I could only choose one to get fired, I'd probably choose Scotty.

5. We had to get below the luxury tax line.

Yeah, I know. Believe me, I know. It's all about the money with you guys. The object of owning a basketball team isn't to save money. It's to win games. Or it would be if I owned a team. Make some smart investments instead of trusting the same decision makers that have gotten you nowhere for the last decade and a half. 

At least I don't have to stay up on draft night beyond the first round for the next five years because moving the next five years of second round picks has been the cost of getting out of the tax the last few years.

Word. Mantra. Excuse. Take your pick.

6. We thought it would be easy with LeBron in the Western Conference.
Yeah, so did everyone else, especially the Celtics who were punching their ticket to the NBA Finals before even stepping on the court this season. Building a winning team requires more than just patience and sticking with the plan. No plan survives first contact with the enemy. To win at anything you have to be nimble and adjust based on the moves of others. The Wiz aren't, which is why they stubbornly try the same thing over and over again and make statements like "we have to figure out what's wrong" after losses to teams that shouldn't beat you.

7. I gave the players generous contracts. What else do you want me to do?

Is that how it works? How about player development? How about coaching? How about not doing the same thing every year and being surprised when the results are about the same. Although let's face it, this year the results are just worse.

8. The Raptors traded for Kawhi Leonard and the Sixers traded for Jimmy Butler.

Yeah, they did. They saw an opportunity to swing for the fences and they took it. Maybe it won't work. But both franchises saw that standing pat with the same roster that hadn't won it all the last few years wasn't going to cut it, even with LeBron in the west (see excuse number 6 above). Opportunities to contend for a Finals spot (and I mean really contend, not the Wizards standard pre-season declaration that we want to contend but then don't) only come along so often. The Wiz let it pass them by. And so they are in the lottery. Again.

Will we be making fun of the Sixers and Raps next year when their newly acquired stars sign elsewhere? Maybe. But my team can't even make the playoffs and has no definable plan for next year that doesn't involve making commitments over the luxury tax line to field a credible team. And we know what happened with that sort of strategy this year, right?

9. Who saw the Nets being this good?

You know what? I can buy this. I mean, honestly, who saw that team in Brooklyn with that roster being a playoff team. Good for the Nets. It's still an excuse though.

10. We decided next year is the year of no excuses when we have Bobby Portis, Jabari Parker, Jeff Green and Trevor Ariza for the whole year.

Of course it is. It's always the next year with the Wizards. It's always that we are happy with our roster and feel we have a chance to contend and are giving our front office an A for our offseason moves. Every. Year. In my worst nightmare I see the Wizards spending way too much on all four of these guys for two year deals all with player options. Please please. No more player options on deals.

I hope to God we don't get excuses, but that's what I'm prepared for. Heck, it looks like Ernie Grunfeld has already started on excuse number 1 from some remarks he made just last month about the Otto Porter trade (see also excuse number 2 above and the image below). We're doomed. Look forward to at least one more year of the Ernie and Scotty show, unless Ted can live up to his promise of no excuses. And remember, any reason offered for non-performance is an excuse when you say no excuses. 

No Excuses

Right before the Charlotte game at the end of December, rumors leaked out that John Wall was considering season-ending surgery on his heel, which had apparently been bothering him for some time. Before the game was over, the Wizards had confirmed the rumor and the team faced the certainty of being without their starting point guard for the rest of the 2018-2019 season. Considering the team's current 15-23 record; come and go injuries to Wall, Otto Porter, Keef Morris and Dwight Howard; and their performance season-to-date, this season is over. I know, I know, there are fans out there looking at the standings and saying "hey, we are only three games out of eighth place." Sorry to be glass half full but trust me, it's over.

Now what? Change has to be coming, right? There's no way this team stands pat without making some major moves, right? Let's take a look at the Wizards' future with very, very, very simple salary cap math.

HAD to find a way to use this pic sometime this year.

Next Year's Roster (Right Now)

If there's no change in the Wizards roster between now and the start of the next NBA season, the Wizards will have five players under contract: John Wall, Otto Porter, Bradley Beal, Ian Mahinmi and Troy Brown. The combined salaries of those five players will be a shade over $111.7 million. With Dwight Howard having a $5.6 million player option on his current contract (why...), let's assume he picks that up (I mean, why wouldn't he?) and ticks the Wiz payroll up to $117.3 million.

The salary cap next year is projected by the NBA to be $109 million and the luxury tax line will be $23 million higher at a total of $132 million. Let's assume Ted Leonsis is willing to exceed the salary cap but not the luxury tax (I'm basing that on current behavior where the team is trying to shave dollars around the margins this season). That means with no serious changes to the roster, the team will have a little less than $15 million to fill eight roster spots, since the NBA won't let a team carry fewer than 14 players. That amount of money won't be enough to put a competitive roster around our six players.

What does this mean? To me, it means one or more of these six has to move without taking an equivalent salary commitment back for next year. Plain and simple, that's it. If we don't move Wall, Porter, Beal or Mahinmi, we will not be competitive next year. Maybe there's a shot at getting there the year after with the luxury tax line being raised to $143 million and no Mahinmi or Howard. But next year? No way! A trade or some other move (like waiving using the stretch provision which allows the cap hit to be spread over several years) has to be coming. Has to be!

Key Restricted Free Agents

In my book, the Wizards have three key free agents going into this offseason: Thomas Bryant, Sam Dekker and Tomas Satoransky. The great thing about the Wizards situation is they can exceed the salary cap to re-sign these players. The bad thing about the Wizards situation is that they won't, because signing all three will mean exceeding the luxury tax threshold. Heck, signing two might mean exceeding the luxury tax line and there would still only be eight players on the roster. 

If it were me, I'd be looking to re-sign at least two of these guys and at this point, I'd probably prioritize Bryant and Satoransky over Dekker, even though I think Dekker's game is solid and will only likely get better for the next few years at least. All of these three can be solid rotation players or starters for the Wizards for the next few years. 

I'm assuming the Wizards will wait to see what kind of interest these three draw on the open market before making an offer since the team will be able to match any offer presented by another team. But bottom line...I think there's value in all three of these guys and realistically, the team will still need to move one or more of Wall, Porter, Beal or Mahinmi to afford to retain even one of these guys.

Everyone Else: Guys Who Can Help a Contender

So the Wizards are in salary cap hell for next year at least without some kind of major move but they do have other folks on the roster right now. Let's assume for the purposes of this post that the rest (and by that I mean Trevor Ariza, Markieff Morris, Jeff Green, Chasson Randle and Ron Baker) are not in the Wizards' long term plans. And if they are not and the season is truly lost (as I think it is) then if the Wiz can get some value for these players, then they should. I mean if they like it that much in Washington they can always come back next year, albeit with maybe not as much salary flexibility. If they don't, they are gone anyway and the Wizards won't have anything to say about it.

If I were the Wizards, I'd be looking to move Ariza, Morris or Green and I'd be looking to do it with a seller's market mentality, meaning cap relief via cheaper contracts isn't the only thing I'd want back in return. I get that maybe the rest of the league doesn't view the Wizards as playing in a seller's market but if another team wants Ariza, Morris or Green without returning a first round draft pick or a young player on a rookie deal then I'd think we'd have to insist on them taking either Porter or Mahinmi for a series of expiring contracts. I know I'm making it sound easier than it is but if there's no substantial relief and there's no trading our six under contract for next year, I'd just stand pat. The contract situation next year has to be resolved before next season or there's no next season. I would not trade any of these guys for a second round pick (because we don't value them) or an equivalent expiring deal. I just don't see the point. Morris' neck injury compromises this situation I guess. 

Everyone Else: Guys Who Can't Help a Contender

For the rest of the guys on the roster or on the fringe of the roster (I'm throwing in Devin Robinson and Jordan McCrae along with Baker and Randle), I'm assuming there's no value whatsoever for other teams, unless some team out there really sees value in Robinson. And if the Wiz ain't going to play Devin this year, I'd be fine getting something back for him just for his own sake and his career.

Sellers or Buyers?

I'm not sure how the Wizards viewed themselves in the Trevor Ariza deal. There's a realistic possibility that Ernie and Co. could really have been sitting around the conference room table at 601 F Street NW convincing themselves that Ariza was the missing piece for an Eastern Conference Finals run this season. With Wall out, they have to have disabused themselves of that notion, right? Right? I know, it's the Wiz front office and they don't think like I do. But they have to be sellers, right?

If they are not, what's the plan? Stand pat and re-sign Ariza, Morris and Green along with Satoransky, Bryant and Dekker? There's no way they can do that and be under the luxury tax line. In fact, they are likely to be way above the line and we all know Ted's just not at all interested in doing that. Also, I think there's some real doubt whether the team will be appreciably better than it is this year. Sure, Wall back healthy (hopefully) will help a ton but I'm not sure they are that much better. And it's moot because ownership is not going to pay for a team that costs north of $150 million in salary.

Draft Picks

What about draft picks? Won't those help fill the roster with cheap talent with tons of upside, especially if we shut the team down for the rest of the season and tank? What if we are bad enough to get the number one overall pick and get Zion Williamson?

Well, yep, all of that is true. And the idea of getting lucky and getting a super high draft pick while having Bradley Beal and a healthy John Wall on the team is really appealing. But there's still that issue of six players taking up more than 100% of next year's salary cap. There's no way the Wiz are doing any what if scenario, including winning the draft lottery, without trading or waiving at least one of the six under contract next year. That's it.

No Excuses

There are 22 Wizards home games remaining in this season. That's a lot of time to make up those three games that separate the Wiz from the Detroit Pistons at home. Then what? A first round loss to the Toronto Raptors or Milwaukee Bucks and the 15th pick in next year's draft who will sit on Scott Brooks' bench while mid-season castoffs from the New York Knicks get time on the floor? Sorry, Ron Baker. And maybe that situation has corrected itself now.

Those 22 remaining home games represent an investment of $5,984 on the part of yours truly and there's no way I'm getting that kind of value out of the rest of this season. That's a problem for me, especially in a season where I was promised the playoffs (Ted said "we have to make the playoffs"). This is the season of "no excuses" according to Wizards' ownership (again, Ted's words, not mine) where the aspirations were 50 games and the Eastern Conference Finals (not my words, again). Right now the Wizards have already lost 23 games. They can only afford to lose nine more in the final 44 if they want to get to the half century mark. There's no way that will happen. 50 games is dead. Eastern Conference Finals is dead. Sure, the playoffs are still possible but at what cost?

I'm betting despite Ted's talk before the season that there will be some excuses. I'm betting injuries are going to be all the excuse ownership of this team needs to explain to season ticket holders why the future is bright and that all we need to do is stay the course (at a couple of bucks more per ticket, no less). Ernie Grunfeld will still be running things and Scott Brooks will still be using questionable rotations while allowing the iso-heavy offense of the team to grind games to a halt and kill any long term chances that this team has of winning anything meaningful. 

No matter who is in charge of the Wizards next year, whether it's Ernie Grunfeld or someone else, they have to solve this salary cap issue with ownership insisting on not exceeding the luxury tax. I know I keep saying that but I think it's true. And that means they have to move one of the big three (I'm using that term loosely) or Ian Mahinmi or they will be in this same situation next year where we start the season with a roster that is really too pricey and start shipping pieces out to cut costs during the year. 

And they need to do it all while not making any silly mistakes, like trading the number five draft pick for two also-rans; or extending Andray Blatche when we didn't have to; or signing a Mahinmi-Nicholson-Smith combo as the solution to the team's future. Do we really want that same guy trying to restructure this roster with no excuses from the team owner? Change is coming whether anyone wants it or not. This roster as constructed is not sustainable. Sell! Sell! Sell! While there are teams out there willing to gamble big on a shot to win it all.

What A Mess!

This is a long post. I apologize. Get an extra beer for this one.

It's been a couple of weeks since the Washington Wizards were bounced from the 2018 NBA Playoffs and I'm still furious. For me, the entire 2017-2018 NBA season was a complete waste of time, effort and money for this franchise and as an 18 year season ticket holder, I'm disgusted pretty much with this entire group. And by that I mean from the last guy on the bench all the way to ownership. I think most other fans of this team who are in any way emotionally connected with seeing the Wizards succeed are too. Except maybe the folks who are in charge of the team who purport to be fans too.

I've been writing this blog for about six of my 18 years as a hard core member of the Wizards faithful and I've never been so low. Not even after the two 19-63 seasons I've suffered through. In fact, I'm so annoyed, discouraged and devastated over this season that this summer I'm actually checking out. It's too late for me to get my money back for next season (unless I can leverage what I am sure will be no SummerFest this year - despite the promise on the Wizards website - into a full refund) so there's not much I can do except express my objections to this last season in this blog post and then stop paying attention to this franchise for a while.

So here's what I'm going to do. I'm going to write this post detailing all the ways I think this Wizards franchise is broken, write three more blog posts to wrap up the year and then stop. For a while. I'd like to be done with these four planned posts in May then you won't see anything out of me on this blog for either June or July and maybe not August. No thoughts on the draft, no thoughts on free agency (I know, right? What free agency?), no thoughts on team names or mascots or logos or anything like that. Nothing. I'm that pissed off right now. The Wizards have sucked the enjoyment out of being an NBA fan. I'm so down I can't even watch Clevealnd Cavaliers playoff games just to see them lose.

Here are my top 12 objections to the mess I've stood by, paid for and watched on the court of Capital One Arena from mid-October to the end of last month. Enjoy my rage! Ultimately this post will probably make me angrier because I know nobody at the Wizards cares.

1. Overconfidence

The Wizards started this year claiming they were the best in the Eastern Conference. Based on what, you may ask? Honestly, I have no idea. I guess the fact that they lost in seven games to the Boston Celtics in the second round of the playoffs last year? How bad is it for this franchise and the players on this team that after coming close to getting out of the second round of the playoffs (that means they won just one of the four rounds required to win a title) constitutes success to think you have arrived?

Bradley Beal was the early season advocate of the Wizards being the best team in the East during the first couple of months of the season and in true Beal fashion he based those calm, confident declarations on no results whatsoever. Eventually, even the Wizards on court futility caused Beal to stop saying that the Wizards were the best team in the East. Once he did that I was pretty sure this sort of silliness was going to end. Until...Markieff Morris claimed the Wizards were better than the Toronto Raptors. After the team had lost to the Raptors four games to two in the first round of the playoffs. I guess in this age of Trump as president we can convince ourselves anything is true if we say it confidently enough.

2. Bad Losses

In chronological order: at the Lakers, Phoenix, Miami, at Charlotte, Portland, at Utah (not necessarily to a bad team but 46 points!!), at the Clippers, at Brooklyn, at Brooklyn (not a typo; two different times). at Atlanta, Utah (without Rudy Gobert in a "revenge" game), at Dallas (0-2 vs. the Mavs this year), Minnesota, Denver, New York, at Chicago, Atlanta, at Orlando.

Some of those don't seem so bad right? Miami? Wizards lost by three after scoring 29 in the first half. Portland? Wizards were up 17 in the fourth. At Charlotte? Wizards were up 7 with two and a half minutes to play. At the Clippers? Lost by 1 to a team starting Sindarius Thornwell and Wesley Johnson. Minnesota? Wizards were up 7 in the fourth and let the Timberwolves end the game on a 25-13 run. Now they seem bad, right? Sure, the loss in Utah probably was going to be a loss anyway but the team quit before it even started playing. All told this year, the Wizards lost at least one game to 8 of the 10 worst teams in the NBA.

3. Poorly Constructed Roster

In an age of small ball, multiple shooters to space the floor and athletic wings who can play multiple positions on offense and defense, the Wizards have stayed traditional. It paid off this year in the form of the eight seed in the East. Stretch four? Maybe. Stretch five? Uhh...no. The Wizards entered the season with $35 million committed to three mostly traditional non-stretch five centers. The exited it with five point guards and just one shooting guard on the roster. Cool. Who does this?

Other roster blunders? No draft picks the last two years and no undrafted rookies means no cheap labor with huge upside. Jodie Meeks contributed minimally this year but fortunately for him he has a player option next year worth more than $3 million. Guess who's picking up his player option next year? Well, yes, Jason Smith too, who's got one for almost $5.5 million. Jodie Meeks and Jason Smith aren't making almost $9 million combined anywhere on their own. Fortunately for them, they don't have to look for jobs next year. On the flip side, Mike Scott was a great free agent pickup this past offseason. Unfortunately for the Wizards, he has no contract for next year which likely means he's gone. Unfortunately for Wizards fans, the guy who created this whole mess won't.

4. Nobody Cares

Yep, I know I already said this. By nobody here, I mean primarily the players and the owner, although considering the job that's been done this year and in the past couple of years by everyone in between, it's not a huge leap of faith to understand how much those folks care also.

As a player, how much can you care if you lose to the Phoenix Suns, Dallas Mavericks and New York Knicks (minus Kristaps Porzingis) at home? How much can you care if after losing to the first two of those teams you declare that you still feel your team is still the best in the Eastern Conference? How much can you care if you keep making the same mistakes over and over and over again and after each game describe how you have to fix your mistakes? How much can you care if you lose at home to the Atlanta Hawks missing their two best players when you really need a win to save playoff seeding? Or you lose to the Orlando Magic in the last game of the season when they deliberately sit their starters in the fourth quarter? No Wizards player said they don't care this season; they didn't have to.

After a disappointing season, I would expect the captain of the ship, the owner, to offer some words to season ticket holders about how this year's performance was not good enough, that he and the rest of management haven't done enough to put a successful team in place and that changes will be made if required to get this team pointed in the right direction. We didn't get that. Instead we got "our team showed this year we have the pieces to make [a championship] happen" and "we have a lot to be proud of." We do? What's that? An eight seed, one Division Title the previous season and a first round exit?

Leonsis then goes on the crow about how good the TV ratings were, noting game 5 of the Raptors series was the highest rated game in 10 years. I get it now. He cares. Ratings=money. I guess as long as ratings are good, we can declare a success.

But the biggest indicator of how much ownership doesn't care might be the tweet above. I can't believe Ted is telling Wizards fans (because that tweet addresses all Wizards fans whether he likes it or not) that he's not concerned about the team's struggles or future. 

I'm telling you...nobody cares.

5. The Salary Cap Situation

I've been a staunch defender of Ernie Grunfeld as the President of Basketball Operations for the Wizards over the years. But if there's one glaring unforgivable blunder, it's the salary cap situation the Wizards are in right now.

Here's the backstory. In an effort to rebuild the team around John Wall, the Wizards go young and cheap and manage to clear the books of a ton of salary for the 2016 offseason so they can sign a marquee free agent to a maximum deal. It's a plan they have spent years working out and it works out. They actually clear enough salary cap space to make a huge splash in free agency. 

One of the first rules of planning is that if something changes to subvert your plan, change the plan in a forward thinking way. Two things went wrong for the Wizards in 2016. First, there are really no marquee free agents outside of Kevin Durant, who's already said before free agency starts that he's not even going to consider Washington. Second, a new television contract kicks in, the salary cap skyrockets and tons and tons of teams have enough cap room to offer maximum contracts to free agents. How Wizards management didn't find out this was going to happen before it happened is beyond me. Isn't this the sort of stuff yu pay people to know? Whatever.

So what do the Wizards do to change their plan? Nothing. They strike out swinging on the next two free agents after Durant (Al Horford and Nicolas Batum if you must know) and then spend all their money on third tier guys for long term deals. The haul? Zero starters, including one guy (Andrew Nicholson) who's not even in the NBA any more. Know what the Wizards roster is going to look like next season? Pretty much the exact same as the eighth place team in the East this year. Know why? Because they are over the cap and the players they signed in 2016 are still on the team. It's like the Wizards didn't understand anything about the salary cap, which might actually be true.

For his efforts here, Ernie Grunfeld received a two year extension, presumably on the premise that the Wizards at the start of this season were now the best team in the East, which as we well know by now wasn't ever true. The Wizards are pretty much boxed into having to trade someone this summer with some legitimate upside. I hope Ernie realizes this.

6. Scott Brooks

When he was hired as the Wizards head man, most folks saw Scott Brooks as a huge upgrade over his predecessor, Randy Wittman. I mourned in my own way the departure of Randy Wittman. I appreciated Randy's straightforwardness and his ability to get the Wizards to play defense like they hadn't played in years, putting two teams into the top 10 of the NBA in defensive efficiency. While I hated to see the Wizards let the coach with the highest playoff winning percentage in team history leave, I also understood there was only so far Randy was going to get us.

Who thinks Brooks is taking us further? I'm serious. Ignoring the fact that Randy got the Wizards into the second round of the playoffs twice and Scottie's only done it once, what gives us hope that Brooks has this coaching thing solved? The team is still prone to inefficient and ineffective late game offense when Bradley Beal or John Wall dribble the ball for 16 of the 24 seconds on the shot clock. Both Beal and Wall play a ton of minutes. He refuses to make changes to his starting lineup (or any rotations really) when things aren't going well. He's shown a reluctance to play younger players, preferring to get predictable results with little upside rather than taking a chance and finding a gem. And the team is no longer the defensive juggernaut they were under Randy Wittman.

Still think I'm delusional about this subject? Tell me Randy was working with a better lineup than Brooks. You can't. Also Brooks is making about 3-4 times what Randy was making in his last year. You ought to get what you pay for. It's pretty clear in some games, particularly late in games, that Brooks is a step slow. I don't know what he can do to get some help this offseason, but he needs to find a way. I'm not advocating going back to Randy Wittman as coach but look, something  has to change about Brooks' approach to the game. Different assistants maybe?

I stubbornly maintain that Randy Wittman is my favorite Wizards coach of all time. Brooks was on his way to passing Randy until this year. He's now got work to do.

7. Otto Porter
If there are folks out there dying to tell us how great Otto Porter is as a basketball player (and there are), they point to how efficient he is as a player. Efficient game. Efficient defender. Efficient shooter from two (50%), downtown (44%) and the charity stripe (83%). Third on the team in points per game, second on the team in rebounds per game, first on the team in steals per game, second on the team in Player Efficiency Rating (PER). Efficient, efficient, efficient.

Know why Otto's so efficient? Because if there's a shot he doesn't like, he generally doesn't take it. He engages correctly when the time is right which is awesome. I'd love a team full of Otto Porters. The problem? Otto Porter is the highest paid player on the team. He has to take more risks, drop that efficiency and have a greater effect on the game. During the playoffs, he slipped to the fourth leading scorer behind Mike Scott. I get that Wall and Beal are going to get their shots but 8 shots per game during the playoffs for the man making more than anyone else on the team don't cut it.

8. Free Agents

Two years ago, Al Horford chose the Boston Celtics over the Washington Wizards. He blamed it on the fans. Yes, the fans. Like the Wizards fans. Yep, you and me. I think there's something else going on.

Two years ago, the same summer that Al Horford signed a max contract in Boston and the Wizards answered with millions and millions for Ian Mahinmi, Andrew Nicholson and Jason Smith, the Philadelphia 76ers had just finished a season in which they won just 10 games. This year they won 52 games, a mark that the Wizards haven't hit since 1979. 

What does that have to do with free agency? Well, in the scrap pile that is buyout season in the NBA, the Sixers, winners of just 10 games two years ago, picked up Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova, two legitimate rotation players. The Wizards got Ramon Sessions. Now I'm not knocking Sessions. He filled in nicely as Tomas Satoransky's backup. But it's telling that when John Wall came back from injury that Sessions couldn't even get in a game. And after the Wizards signed Ty Lawson before the playoffs, Ramon couldn't even get dressed for some games. Yes, the same Ty Lawson who couldn't get an NBA contract before the season started. Why can Philly sign quality free agents mid-season and the Wizards can't?

I'm thinking Horford choosing Boston had more to do with confidence in this team's direction than the fans. Call me crazy. I'm also thinking the Wizards have zero chance of attracting a ring chasing veteran that's got some life left this offseason. Call me crazy there too if you must.

9. John Wall

I hate to say anything negative about John Wall. He's my favorite Wizards player of all time and the Wizards best player of all time (Wizards, not Bullets, folks). But we can all improve, right? 

If I had two wishes for John Wall this offseason it would be this. First, live up to the challenge Kobe Bryant gave him (and which he accepted) to make NBA All-Defensive First Team. I get that the knee injuries probably held him back this year from being all he could be on the defensive end but we need more. John could be a serious defensive stopper in this league. He's got all the physical tools and is one of the best shot blockers in the league. All it takes from here on out is effort. No more letting guys go by and trying to poke the ball away from behind. When it works, it's great; when it doesn't, you just let your man go right by you forcing someone else to rotate or just allowing an easy bucket.

Second, get some ball skills coaching. I've seen a number of Wizards bloggers imploring John to get together with Drew Hanlen who's worked with both Bradley Beal and Kelly Oubre to improve their skills. Last summer, John embarked on a barnstorming tour of closed gyms visiting and working out with other NBA superstars. John is one of the scariest point guards for opponents to defend. Imagine him with an improved handle. If there's one thing that drives me nuts about John's game (other than the matador defense cited above), it's the bad turnover. Some folks have told me you can't have an aggressive John Wall without them. Why not?

10. Two Way Contracts

This fall, the Wizards will finally field a G League (formerly NBDL or D-League) team. When they do, they will become the 27th franchise to do so. Not the last of adopters, but awfully late, right?

Over the past few years, I've waited for this to happen and watched player after player be shipped off to who knows where to play with other teams' systems and develop not much at all. Or at least not in a way that would benefit the Wizards. Maybe next year will be different.

Of course I thought that about our two way contracts this year. In case you missed it, this was the first year the NBA allowed two way contracts. What does that mean? A player signed under a two way contract spends the majority of his time in the G League but is able to be called up to the NBA level by one team and one team only. It's a way teams can identify developing talent relatively inexpensively which could help them in the future. 

In the past, the Wizards have treated the G League like an obligation and not a benefit. They have engaged in the most minimal ways and predictably, they have reaped pretty much zero benefit. I was shocked when the team was a relatively early adopter of the two way contracts, locking up their maximum two shortly after the draft. But my mid-season Michael Young was gone and it took until game 82 for Devin Robinson to get in a game.

Will it change when the team has a G League team of their own? There are no indicators that it will. But the Wizards have to change here. It seems organizational from top to bottom.

11. Season Ticket Costs

I know I've ranted plenty about this subject in the last few months but I have to bring it up again. Considering everything I've written about in this post so far, do we really think the Wizards deserve to raise ticket prices by up to 20%? What are they selling, exactly? Unless something serious changes this summer, we've gone in one year from a team in the top two or three in the Eastern Conference to a team that has been passed by Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Indiana with younger rosters with more upside and more cap flexibility.

I get that Wizards tickets can sell better now than five years ago. I get that John Wall and Bradley Beal form a backcourt duo that people are willing to pay to see. But if they don't win it won't last long. People will become bored and lose interest in the same old Wizards. The best way to get fans in seats in my opinion is to build loyalty and a can't miss experience for season ticket holders. To me, that means a more competitive team and cheaper tickets that can't be re-sold. I floated this idea before on this blog and I'm still all in on this concept.

Charging me 20% more next year is close to criminal. But as I've already said, nobody cares.

12. Missed Opportunity

This is my last point on this post. If there was a year, however improbable it might seem, that the Wizards might have made a run at the NBA Finals, it was this one. Now, keep in mind, I'm not saying win the NBA Championship. I said NBA Finals and that's probably it. Think about it, at the beginning of the season it seemed like Cleveland this year was not the lock they have been in the past few years to come out of the East; Boston after major trades may have needed a couple of years to gel; and nipping at the heels of the top teams in the East (which presumably at the beginning year included the Wiz) were the maybe-really-good-in-the-future-but-not-ready-this-year Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks. It seemed like the Wizards if they were really serious could have sneaked in there.

Now, I get that with the Eastern Conference Finals about to tip off this weekend and both Cleveland and Boston looking like there's no way the Wizards could beat them that things don't look quite like I described them in the paragraph above. But what if the Wizards had really made a serious run from the beginning. Yes, John Wall's injury derailed some things but the team was losing to Phoenix and Dallas and Brooklyn (twice) before Wall went down. Flip 13 of those 17 bad losses I've listed above and the Wiz are in second place.

Too rosy an evaluation? Maybe. What I've written above still wouldn't have overcome the poorly constructed roster and the fact that free agents don't want to sign in Washington and John Wall's injury. But we'll also never know because of the overconfident, don't care way the team including the coaching staff went about this year. These opportunities don't come along that often. Look at the next two years for the Wizards: they are stuck with the same general manager who got them into this mess with the same coach who has struggled with late game execution with the same lineup that's a year older (which is a bad thing in some spots) and no ability to sign free agents for any kind of salary. How was last year not the golden opportunity? The Wizards are faced with a situation where they are going to have to do something different to fundamentally avoid repeating the same mistakes and they have shown no tendency to do that in the past.

Maybe I'm being too harsh but to me the plan that Ted and Ernie came up with a few years ago has failed. What now? You're putting the hopes of fans in the care of the same people and expecting different results. It's a measure of how despondent I as a fan feel that I could come up with 12 things that I don't like about the current situation. I could have kept going. At one point I had 14 but just felt that would make too long a post. This situation needs some serious help. It's on everyone in the organization. Prove to the fans that you are charging more money next year to watch this mess that you care.

Sam Cassell feeling the mood of Wizards fans. Although the Wiz did win this game.

ESPN NBA Management Rankings

Last month, ESPN released its 2017 NBA Management Rankings, a list of coaches, general manager/team presidents and owners of every NBA franchise ranked from 1 to 30. This is the third year out of the last four that the TV network has released such rankings, starting in 2014 and again a year later in 2015 before the revised list was published in March. I couldn't find anything for 2016 so I'm assuming they just skipped last year. 

This year, the Wizards did pretty well by the folks in Bristol, Connecticut, ranking 12th overall, 9th in coaching (Scott Brooks) and 14th in GM/President (Ernie Grunfeld) with their only bottom half of the league (barely) coming in ownership at 16th (Ted Leonsis). It's certainly better than they fared two years ago when they finished overall at 21st with the highest ranking in any category being ownership, which just like this year, finished in the 16 spot.

Now I'm not exactly sure who has input into these rankings over at ESPN. Two years ago they referred to their ESPN Forecast Panel as the authors of the results. They also provided a link justifying why their panel produces "the most accurate predictions in the game" before referring to the process as "the future of forecasting." There was a list of six names at the bottom of that page, two of whom were titled economist or microeconomist although I'm not sure those folks are the entire panel. This year, the Panel seems to be a little more mysterious but here's the thing: I'm not sure these people have any idea what they are talking about.

So I get that the statement I just made is a little bit laughable. After all, I'm an architect who blogs about being a Wizards fan on nights and weekends and these folks are paid professionals who are presumably respected in their field. I also can't take issue with them ranking the San Antonio Spurs first overall in 2015 and 2017 and the New York Knicks as last overall both of those same years. I mean, who would really argue with those results?

But that's sort of the point. What panel wouldn't put the Spurs first and the Knicks last? It's the results in between that are leaving me questioning the value of this ranking in total because it seems to be a what have you done for me lately contest, with on court results determining the opinion of the evaluators based on what's already happened. Look, I can tell you who wins each NBA division at the end of the season; it's predicting it at the beginning the year and stating why that's the hard part. I think all these folks are looking at is results after the fact. And that just ain't that hard.

Scott Brooks: From 20th to 9th in two years while taking one of the two off. Such progress!

So you need some evidence, right? Let's start with the Wizards. Two years ago, my beloved team finished 26th in coaching in this ranking under then head coach Randy Wittman, a guy who was pretty much universally reviled by any sort of NBA analystics guy. This year, Scott Brooks has the coaching on our team ranked 17 spots higher than two years ago. That makes sense based on him leading the team to more wins and the franchise's first division title since 1979, right? I'm not really proving my own point am I?

Know where Brooks, who was then coaching the Oklahoma City Thunder, finished two years ago? 20th. So I guess that involuntary year off really made Scottie a way better coach, huh? Probably not. Or maybe a bunch of guys ahead of him quit the profession?  Well, yes, if you consider three a lot; but they (Kevin McHale, George Karl and David Blatt) were relieved of their responsibilities. So what's the deal?

Well it turns out, according to the Forecast Panel, some coaches just aren't as good this year as they were two years ago. Atlanta's Mike Budenholzer dropped from 2nd to 11th; Portland's Terry Stotts went from 7th to 14th; Tom Thibodeau switched teams and turned his number 5 spot with the Bulls into a 13 ranking with the Timberwolves; Dave Joerger did something similar (11 to 23) by bolting Memphis for Sacramento; and Frank Vogel was also on the wrong side of history by taking the Magic job this year, dropping his ESPN coaching rank from 9 to 24. All five of these coaches posted worse records this year than they did two years ago and turned a combined 254 wins (.620 winning percentage) in 2015 into 176 wins (.429 winning percentage) this year.

I'm maybe being a little unfair. Some coaches (Erik Spoelstra and Rick Carlisle) are still highly thought of despite not making the playoffs this season. And no doubt they are good coaches. Then again, maybe they are just saved by having led at least one team to a championship this century. But what's the excuse for the change of heart on Brooks and the five other coaches? I say it's team performance. And that sucks. Either you can coach or you can't. And the panel of experts ought to know that.

So let's move on, shall we? Let's get back to the Wizards. This year Team President Ernie Grunfeld looks like a pretty good guy to make personnel decisions according to ESPN, finishing in the top half in this category. Yet two years ago he was 20th. So why the sudden change of heart? He's executing the same plan he was two years ago but this year the team he's been assembling has been more successful than any other collection of players for this franchise since the 1970s.  Why move him up? Is it because the folks ranking him two years ago didn't understand what the plan was and how it would work out? I say yes.

The ranking mistakes aren't as pronounced in the GM/President category but let me offer a few thoughts. The Phoenix Suns seem to have one of the most questionable personnel decision records over the last few years, choosing to lock up Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight long term while letting Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas leave Arizona. But two years ago, ESPN had that franchise's front office ranked ahead of the Wizards (this year they are 11 spots behind) probably because the Suns two years ago were seen as way overperforming when finishing with 39 wins. Clearly ESPN's experts knew about as much as the Suns' General Manager Ryan McDonough (still employed by the way) when he decided to let Dragic and Thomas play for someone else.

The panel was also seemingly in love with Sam Hinkie's process in Philadelphia in 2014, choosing him over Grunfeld by three spots, but not so wed to the aftermath, dropping Philly seven spots behind the Wiz this year. But most striking seems to be their swing on Mike Budenholzer in Atlanta, who two years ago cobbled together a lineup that won 60 games, but who is 17 games worse this year. Sorry, Bud, ESPN drops you from 6th to 15th for that. Looks like ESPN is following the records. Again.

Finally let's look at the owners. And here the Panel may have gotten things mostly right precisely because they kept past NBA Championship winners towards the top of the ranking and let the rest of the teams stack up from there. And let's face it, of the teams that haven't won titles recently, there is plenty of mediocrity. The last five franchises to win NBA titles have been the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Golden State Warriors, the San Antonio Spurs, the Miami Heat and the Dallas Mavericks. With the exception of Cleveland, these teams all rank in the top six in both 2015 and 2017. Kind of stupid to pick against a winner that's already won, right? Like shooting fish in a barrel.

But ESPN does follow the same recent history rule for ownership too. Cleveland is ranked 7th in this year's survey, the year after they won their first ever title; that's a jump of nine spots from two years ago which was 11 spots higher than 2014. Know what the Cavs' record was in 2014? 33-49. Three years, 27 to 7, same owner. The only difference? A title.  Stick to your guns people or stop predicting when you get things wrong. If Dan Gilbert is fourth worst among owners two years ago, why is he seventh best this year? Winning. Plain and simple.

The same situation plays out elsewhere in the midwest in Chicago. Jerry Riensdorf's basketball acumen got him a top 10 ranking in 2014 when the Bulls were 48-34. But with a 41-41 record, Reinsdorf can't crack the top 20 this year. Good owner two years ago; bad owner now. Makes no sense.

I suppose if ESPN ever does this sort of thing again, I may take a look, but only to get annoyed about how much they are dissing the Wizards for not having a great regular season record or winning a title recently. But this thing is of little value to me. It's all results based. They are just putting the teams who are the most successful at the top of the heap and if the same personnel with the same (or different) team are not quite so successful, they knock them down to the bottom. I'll pass on the "future of forecasting" thanks.  I'll just decide for myself how successful each team is at the end of the season. After all, that's what ESPN's doing.

Championships don't necessarily make you a better owner. Except in ESPN's eyes.

A Sweet Deal

 
With the Wizards sitting in sixth place in the Eastern Conference and seemingly bound for the playoffs for the first time since 2008, and fresh off an All-Star weekend that saw John Wall become the first Wizard since that same year to play in the All-Star game and the first Wizard EVER to win the dunk contest, the team decided to choose this week to send out season ticket renewal information. Sell high, right? Isn't that what they always say? And despite their record sitting two games below .500, the Wizards' stock hasn't been this high since the team took game 5 in Cleveland during the first round of the 2008 playoffs. After five miserable years, it appears the Wizards are back to approaching respectability. In the Eastern Conference anyway.

 

Three years ago, in the midst of the 2010-2011 season, new owner Ted Leonsis told Wizards fans in no uncertain terms that the team was going to be pretty close to terrible for the next few years while management purged the horrible roster at the time and rebuilt the fortunes of the franchise. In exchange for what was about to happen, the Wizards offered season ticket holders a deal of sorts: buy tickets for the 2011-2012 season when the team had no realistic hope of competing and the team would slash ticket prices in most parts of Verizon Center and keep them low for the next three seasons by which time the players on the court representing Washington D. C. would provide a more palatable product.

 

The 2010-2011 season was my 11th as a Washington Wizards season ticket holder. By that time, I was fully committed to spend a long time suffering as a Wizards fan and would have renewed my full season in the 400 level and my 21 game plan in the 100 level of Verizon Center without much of a thought. But the team's commitment to be bad and keep costs low cut the price of my 100 level seats almost in half, from what I remember as $98 per game down to the low low price of just $50 per game. What that meant to me was that I could now purchase a full season upstairs and downstairs for less than what I paid for 63 games the year before (the team did not drop the $16 per game price for upper level tickets). Sold! The 2011-2012 season became the first year I had four full season tickets. I'll explain why I didn't ditch the uppers a little later.

 

The promise of a bad team made by management in the late winter of 2011 came true. The team's record the first two years of the rebuild was a less than mediocre 49-99 and the team didn't really come close to the playoffs in either year. But in the meantime, the bargain offered up by the franchise in exchange for being bad has proved to be one worth paying for considering this year the team has been firmly in playoff contention and I'm still only paying $50 per game to sit five rows behind the hockey boards on the side of the arena. I feel that this price is a great deal and I offer no counterargument to those out there that would say paying $50 per game to watch a team win less than a third of their games over two seasons is no sort of good deal at all. You are probably right.

 

Nonetheless, I feel season ticket prices have been insanely low the last three years. Among all the franchises that advertise the price of their season tickets to the general public (and there are some that do not) I found only the Charlotte Bobcats who could offer me seats for anything approaching the same price I paid for my lower level seats the past three years. And the Bobcats tickets cost more than mine did. I think the last three years have been an absolute bargain.

 

The current 2013-2014 season that is fast approaching its conclusion is the last of the three promised price frozen years and so I expected an increase in ticket prices for the next season, especially considering the playoff expectations this team holds. My biggest fear as a season ticket holder is that I will be priced out of the seats I have sat in for years, that essentially I will be offered the option to purchase my seats at a price I am not willing to pay. And when that happens I expect that some new "fan" who has not suffered through the lean years will pay top dollar to sit in my old seats and claim that he or she was always a die hard Wizards fan despite their years away from Verizon Center.

 

I think my fear is very well justified. I've seen it happen with other NBA franchises (Orlando priced tickets for what I consider my seats in their arena at an insane $175 per game last year) and I get that it's the market setting the price according to supply and demand. I've also seen it happen with the Washington Capitals in Verizon Center, which is owned by the same group, Monumental Sports & Entertainment, that now owns the Wizards. There are 32 different pricing groups for Capitals games and upper level sections are divided vertically into three separate pricing tiers. It's sort of nuts for a team that still hasn't made it past the second round of the playoffs.

 

The fear of being priced out of my seats is the reason I have kept my upper level tickets. I figure when (not if) I finally get presented with an invoice for my 100 level Wizards season tickets that makes my heart stop, I can retreat back to a full season upstairs in what I consider to be pretty good seats in the third row on the side. If I gave those up and tried to get them back later, I'm sure I'd be way further back and really unhappy with my decision. As it stands, I'm essentially paying $16 per game as an insurance policy against prices skyrocketing. 

 

If you had asked me my opinion about how the increase in pricing for next season, I would have said the lower level seats I have in Section 109 would go up from $50 a game to $75 a game and the upper level seats which cost me just $16 per contest this year would stay the same. Boy was I wrong! Our lower level seats went up a mere $5 per game although our upper level seats went up by 25% (albeit a mere $4 per ticket). That's an overall increase of $9 per game vs. the $25 price hike I was expecting. This pricing continues to make me happy as a season ticket holder and ensures I'll have my butt in my seats next year every game. It's still a bargain to be a Wizards fan (if you ignore the lack of recent success).

Thank you to the Wizards for making this reasonable. Don't worry. I'm braced for further increases. Go Wizards! Raptors up tonight!