In Memorium: Ernie Grunfeld

So I'm halfway through a pair of posts about Ernie Grunfeld and the Wizards up and let him go this week. My timing sucks sometimes. I figured they would wait until the end of the season. I was wrong. So I've abandoned those two posts that were under construction in favor of this one.

Like most Wizards fans out there, I was convinced beyond a shadow of a doubt that it was time for President of Basketball Operations Ernie Grunfeld to leave the team. No other team executive had stayed in place as long as Ernie had with so few good results. It was time to move on and give someone else a shot. I only hoped Ted would do it in plenty of time to get someone else in place before the NBA Draft in late June. It appears he's done that.

The Ernie Grunfeld era in Washington wasn't all bad although as I hope I'll demonstrate below, most all of his successful moves came in his early years on the job. Measure Ernie against his immediate predecessors in Wes Unseld and Michael Jordan and he looks quite successful: one division title and eight playoff appearances, including four trips to the second round of the playoffs. But in a league where there are just five teams in a division and more than half of the teams in the league make the postseason each year, achieving those results in 16 seasons on the job is not good enough. Not by far. Just being better than the people before you who were lousy at their jobs don't cut it.

The posts I was working on were Ernie's greatest triumphs and his greatest failures (one post for each) as the Wizards' head basketball decision maker. I made a top 10 list for each category and I'm posting the lists I assembled for this exercise anyway, although I'm just going to provide a little less explanation than I planned.

Let's start with the top 10 successes. I'm placing the date of each in parentheses because I think that's important.

Ernie's Top 10 Hits 

10. Signing Shaun Livingston to a 10 Day Contract (2010)

9. Drafting John Wall (2010) and Bradley Beal (2012) 

8. Signing Paul Pierce to a Free Agent Contract (2014)

7. Trading for Marcin Gortat (2013)

6. Swapping Kwame Brown for Caron Butler (2005)

5. Trading Rashard Lewis for Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza (2012)

4. Signing Gilbert Arenas to a Free Agent Contract (2003)

3. Trading for Nenê (2012)

2. Trading for Antawn Jamison (2004)

1. Bringing Credibility to the Position (2003)

A few notes on the above list before we get to the misses / disasters list. 

There are three awesome deals in the top six used to assemble the Arenas / Butler / Jamison team that could have been something; each of those deals were masterful. The Butler deal with the Lakers was outright robbery. All three of these transactions occurred in his first two years on the job which is why my number 1 is number 1. He transformed that team into a contender instantly as soon as he started. MJ and Wes couldn't compare.

Drafting Wall and Beal is so low on the list because he had to get these right; these were no excuses type decisions. Bringing Nenê, Okafor and Ariza into the locker room (the first time for Ariza, not the second time) are so high because what the team needed more than anything else was adult supervision. Nenê is in the three spot because a lot of people saw that deal as good for everyone except the Wizards when the opposite turned out to be true. The Okafor / Ariza trade is ahead of the Butler deal because he gave up a second round pick to get them. Can you imagine 2018 Ernie using second round picks to acquire talent rather than erase mistakes? 

You can argue with any of the above items if you want. I'm up for it, especially the Livingston one, which is admittedly a completely emotional decision for me. I'm happy Shaun made it the way he did after that knee injury.

So now that I've made everyone angry by actually maintaining Ernie did as many as 10 good things in his time in Washington, let's take a look at my top 10 non-successes.

Ernie's Top 10 Misses

10. Drafting Oleksiy Pecherov (2006)

9. Extending Andray Blatche's Contract (2010)

8. Not Re-Signing Garrett Temple (2016)

7. Player Options (2014, 2016, 2017 and 2018)

6. Trading Tons of Second Round Picks (2015, 2016, 2018 and 2019)

5. Coaching Hires (2009 and 2016)

4. Trading the 5 Pick for Mike Miller and Randy Foye (2009)

3. Trading Tons of First Round Picks (2013, 2016 and 2017)

2. Failing to Anticipate the Reality of 2016 (2016)

1. The Record (2003-2019)

A few notes on this list. I'll try to be brief. I may not succeed. 

Some of these decisions defy explanation. Extending Andray Blatche three years when already had two years remaining on his deal (the Wiz amnesty-ed Blatche before the extension kicked in but still paid out $35M); choosing Andrew Nicholson, Jason Smith or Ian Mahinmi (let alone all three) over a high character role player and locker room leader like Garrett Temple in 2016; and envisioning Mike Miller and Randy Foye as the guys who were going to put the team over the top and get us a championship instead of drafting Steph Curry or DeMar DeRozan. 

There's clearly a lack of respect for the Draft. Do you realize that from 2014 to 2017 the Wizards held only one first round pick? Ernie even managed to circumvent the rule that a franchise can't trade it's first round draft pick two years in a row by trading the first rounder at the trading deadline in two consecutive years. That rule was designed to save franchises from their own stupidity and Ernie found a way around it. And don't get me started on second round picks which the Wiz don't have for sure until 2024. 2024!!! 

In case you are wondering...2019 pick traded to sweeten the Kelly Oubre deal in 2015; 2020 pick traded to conditionally to acquire Jared Dudley in 2015 and made unconditional to make Jodie Meeks go away in 2018; 2021 pick traded for Trey Burke in 2016; 2022 pick traded to make Jodie Meeks go away (not a typo; it took two second rounders to get rid of Meeks); and 2023 traded to make Markieff Morris go away.

What's the story with player options? How about Paul Pierce (who declined his to leave when we needed him to stay), Jason Smith, Jodie Meeks and Dwight Howard (all of who have or will accept all theirs to stay when they needed or need to leave). And the coaches? How about hiring Flip Saunders and Scott Brooks without talking to any other candidates.

But the biggest thing for me (other than the losing record and no 50 win seasons) was the 2016 offseason. Not because he signed Ian Mahimni, Andrew Nicholson and Jason Smith to multi-year deals but because he failed to realize what was happening in the NBA with the salary cap. By that I mean the Wizards' strategy for that summer was to clear enough space to sign a max free agent (hopefully Kevin Durant) and that realistically they would be one of maybe four or five teams that would have that much cap room. But he failed to see the impact of the new TV deal, which turned almost every team into a max free agent destination. Instead of competing with two or three other teams for the best free agents, they were competing with like 25. And he failed to realize this and failed to adjust. Cap management and long term vision has to be part of the job description, right??

Sorry for being so long winded on that.

Ask 10 Wizards fans for these lists and I'm sure you would get 10 different answers, although some might not get to 10 items on the hits list. 

When I look back at these lists, I see a few things. First, Ernie used to be a good deal maker. Some of those deals he made were just awesome. But there's nothing that I can point to trade-wise in the last five years that's been any good. Second, he has not attracted quality free agents to Washington and he's run screaming from the Draft any time he can. Drafting, trading and signing free agents are three core parts of the job and he's only ever really been good at one of those. And he's not even any good at the one he used to be good at.

Third, and most important, there's an astonishing lack of medium or long term planning with a lot of these moves. 2016 was a complete disaster. I mean one of the total and unmitigated variety. How someone is allowed to dole out that kind of money after whiffing on his top three targets and then use that many future assets (draft picks) to erase his mistakes and then keep his job so long is incredible. And 2016 is not the only one. Sometimes, even when Ernie made a good decision there's a but associated with it. 

What do I mean by that? He made the right move by signing Gilbert Arenas after he won the Most Improved Player Award but give him an albatross of a contract later on. He plucked Shaun Livingston off the NBA scrap heap but then failed to develop him and lock him up long term. He signed Paul Pierce when Trevor Ariza walked (or the team let him walk) but gave him a player option which let him leave the next year. He drafted John Wall over Evan Turner but gave Wall a supermax contract as soon as he humanly could.

Where does that leave the Wizards? Honestly with a lot of messes to sort out. As I detailed a couple of months ago, the cap situation for this team going forward is going to take some real creativity to get a competitive team on the floor. Throw in an injured John Wall making north of $40 million, Dwight Howard with a $5 million plus player option and no second round picks for the next half decade and things look even worse. Despite all that, this team does have some talent and with the right free agent signings, a smart draft and a creative coach who can develop players...who knows.

For now, Ernie's gone. And it's about time.

I know Randy's thinking how long does it take to get this guy out of here.

What A Mess!

This is a long post. I apologize. Get an extra beer for this one.

It's been a couple of weeks since the Washington Wizards were bounced from the 2018 NBA Playoffs and I'm still furious. For me, the entire 2017-2018 NBA season was a complete waste of time, effort and money for this franchise and as an 18 year season ticket holder, I'm disgusted pretty much with this entire group. And by that I mean from the last guy on the bench all the way to ownership. I think most other fans of this team who are in any way emotionally connected with seeing the Wizards succeed are too. Except maybe the folks who are in charge of the team who purport to be fans too.

I've been writing this blog for about six of my 18 years as a hard core member of the Wizards faithful and I've never been so low. Not even after the two 19-63 seasons I've suffered through. In fact, I'm so annoyed, discouraged and devastated over this season that this summer I'm actually checking out. It's too late for me to get my money back for next season (unless I can leverage what I am sure will be no SummerFest this year - despite the promise on the Wizards website - into a full refund) so there's not much I can do except express my objections to this last season in this blog post and then stop paying attention to this franchise for a while.

So here's what I'm going to do. I'm going to write this post detailing all the ways I think this Wizards franchise is broken, write three more blog posts to wrap up the year and then stop. For a while. I'd like to be done with these four planned posts in May then you won't see anything out of me on this blog for either June or July and maybe not August. No thoughts on the draft, no thoughts on free agency (I know, right? What free agency?), no thoughts on team names or mascots or logos or anything like that. Nothing. I'm that pissed off right now. The Wizards have sucked the enjoyment out of being an NBA fan. I'm so down I can't even watch Clevealnd Cavaliers playoff games just to see them lose.

Here are my top 12 objections to the mess I've stood by, paid for and watched on the court of Capital One Arena from mid-October to the end of last month. Enjoy my rage! Ultimately this post will probably make me angrier because I know nobody at the Wizards cares.

1. Overconfidence

The Wizards started this year claiming they were the best in the Eastern Conference. Based on what, you may ask? Honestly, I have no idea. I guess the fact that they lost in seven games to the Boston Celtics in the second round of the playoffs last year? How bad is it for this franchise and the players on this team that after coming close to getting out of the second round of the playoffs (that means they won just one of the four rounds required to win a title) constitutes success to think you have arrived?

Bradley Beal was the early season advocate of the Wizards being the best team in the East during the first couple of months of the season and in true Beal fashion he based those calm, confident declarations on no results whatsoever. Eventually, even the Wizards on court futility caused Beal to stop saying that the Wizards were the best team in the East. Once he did that I was pretty sure this sort of silliness was going to end. Until...Markieff Morris claimed the Wizards were better than the Toronto Raptors. After the team had lost to the Raptors four games to two in the first round of the playoffs. I guess in this age of Trump as president we can convince ourselves anything is true if we say it confidently enough.

2. Bad Losses

In chronological order: at the Lakers, Phoenix, Miami, at Charlotte, Portland, at Utah (not necessarily to a bad team but 46 points!!), at the Clippers, at Brooklyn, at Brooklyn (not a typo; two different times). at Atlanta, Utah (without Rudy Gobert in a "revenge" game), at Dallas (0-2 vs. the Mavs this year), Minnesota, Denver, New York, at Chicago, Atlanta, at Orlando.

Some of those don't seem so bad right? Miami? Wizards lost by three after scoring 29 in the first half. Portland? Wizards were up 17 in the fourth. At Charlotte? Wizards were up 7 with two and a half minutes to play. At the Clippers? Lost by 1 to a team starting Sindarius Thornwell and Wesley Johnson. Minnesota? Wizards were up 7 in the fourth and let the Timberwolves end the game on a 25-13 run. Now they seem bad, right? Sure, the loss in Utah probably was going to be a loss anyway but the team quit before it even started playing. All told this year, the Wizards lost at least one game to 8 of the 10 worst teams in the NBA.

3. Poorly Constructed Roster

In an age of small ball, multiple shooters to space the floor and athletic wings who can play multiple positions on offense and defense, the Wizards have stayed traditional. It paid off this year in the form of the eight seed in the East. Stretch four? Maybe. Stretch five? Uhh...no. The Wizards entered the season with $35 million committed to three mostly traditional non-stretch five centers. The exited it with five point guards and just one shooting guard on the roster. Cool. Who does this?

Other roster blunders? No draft picks the last two years and no undrafted rookies means no cheap labor with huge upside. Jodie Meeks contributed minimally this year but fortunately for him he has a player option next year worth more than $3 million. Guess who's picking up his player option next year? Well, yes, Jason Smith too, who's got one for almost $5.5 million. Jodie Meeks and Jason Smith aren't making almost $9 million combined anywhere on their own. Fortunately for them, they don't have to look for jobs next year. On the flip side, Mike Scott was a great free agent pickup this past offseason. Unfortunately for the Wizards, he has no contract for next year which likely means he's gone. Unfortunately for Wizards fans, the guy who created this whole mess won't.

4. Nobody Cares

Yep, I know I already said this. By nobody here, I mean primarily the players and the owner, although considering the job that's been done this year and in the past couple of years by everyone in between, it's not a huge leap of faith to understand how much those folks care also.

As a player, how much can you care if you lose to the Phoenix Suns, Dallas Mavericks and New York Knicks (minus Kristaps Porzingis) at home? How much can you care if after losing to the first two of those teams you declare that you still feel your team is still the best in the Eastern Conference? How much can you care if you keep making the same mistakes over and over and over again and after each game describe how you have to fix your mistakes? How much can you care if you lose at home to the Atlanta Hawks missing their two best players when you really need a win to save playoff seeding? Or you lose to the Orlando Magic in the last game of the season when they deliberately sit their starters in the fourth quarter? No Wizards player said they don't care this season; they didn't have to.

After a disappointing season, I would expect the captain of the ship, the owner, to offer some words to season ticket holders about how this year's performance was not good enough, that he and the rest of management haven't done enough to put a successful team in place and that changes will be made if required to get this team pointed in the right direction. We didn't get that. Instead we got "our team showed this year we have the pieces to make [a championship] happen" and "we have a lot to be proud of." We do? What's that? An eight seed, one Division Title the previous season and a first round exit?

Leonsis then goes on the crow about how good the TV ratings were, noting game 5 of the Raptors series was the highest rated game in 10 years. I get it now. He cares. Ratings=money. I guess as long as ratings are good, we can declare a success.

But the biggest indicator of how much ownership doesn't care might be the tweet above. I can't believe Ted is telling Wizards fans (because that tweet addresses all Wizards fans whether he likes it or not) that he's not concerned about the team's struggles or future. 

I'm telling you...nobody cares.

5. The Salary Cap Situation

I've been a staunch defender of Ernie Grunfeld as the President of Basketball Operations for the Wizards over the years. But if there's one glaring unforgivable blunder, it's the salary cap situation the Wizards are in right now.

Here's the backstory. In an effort to rebuild the team around John Wall, the Wizards go young and cheap and manage to clear the books of a ton of salary for the 2016 offseason so they can sign a marquee free agent to a maximum deal. It's a plan they have spent years working out and it works out. They actually clear enough salary cap space to make a huge splash in free agency. 

One of the first rules of planning is that if something changes to subvert your plan, change the plan in a forward thinking way. Two things went wrong for the Wizards in 2016. First, there are really no marquee free agents outside of Kevin Durant, who's already said before free agency starts that he's not even going to consider Washington. Second, a new television contract kicks in, the salary cap skyrockets and tons and tons of teams have enough cap room to offer maximum contracts to free agents. How Wizards management didn't find out this was going to happen before it happened is beyond me. Isn't this the sort of stuff yu pay people to know? Whatever.

So what do the Wizards do to change their plan? Nothing. They strike out swinging on the next two free agents after Durant (Al Horford and Nicolas Batum if you must know) and then spend all their money on third tier guys for long term deals. The haul? Zero starters, including one guy (Andrew Nicholson) who's not even in the NBA any more. Know what the Wizards roster is going to look like next season? Pretty much the exact same as the eighth place team in the East this year. Know why? Because they are over the cap and the players they signed in 2016 are still on the team. It's like the Wizards didn't understand anything about the salary cap, which might actually be true.

For his efforts here, Ernie Grunfeld received a two year extension, presumably on the premise that the Wizards at the start of this season were now the best team in the East, which as we well know by now wasn't ever true. The Wizards are pretty much boxed into having to trade someone this summer with some legitimate upside. I hope Ernie realizes this.

6. Scott Brooks

When he was hired as the Wizards head man, most folks saw Scott Brooks as a huge upgrade over his predecessor, Randy Wittman. I mourned in my own way the departure of Randy Wittman. I appreciated Randy's straightforwardness and his ability to get the Wizards to play defense like they hadn't played in years, putting two teams into the top 10 of the NBA in defensive efficiency. While I hated to see the Wizards let the coach with the highest playoff winning percentage in team history leave, I also understood there was only so far Randy was going to get us.

Who thinks Brooks is taking us further? I'm serious. Ignoring the fact that Randy got the Wizards into the second round of the playoffs twice and Scottie's only done it once, what gives us hope that Brooks has this coaching thing solved? The team is still prone to inefficient and ineffective late game offense when Bradley Beal or John Wall dribble the ball for 16 of the 24 seconds on the shot clock. Both Beal and Wall play a ton of minutes. He refuses to make changes to his starting lineup (or any rotations really) when things aren't going well. He's shown a reluctance to play younger players, preferring to get predictable results with little upside rather than taking a chance and finding a gem. And the team is no longer the defensive juggernaut they were under Randy Wittman.

Still think I'm delusional about this subject? Tell me Randy was working with a better lineup than Brooks. You can't. Also Brooks is making about 3-4 times what Randy was making in his last year. You ought to get what you pay for. It's pretty clear in some games, particularly late in games, that Brooks is a step slow. I don't know what he can do to get some help this offseason, but he needs to find a way. I'm not advocating going back to Randy Wittman as coach but look, something  has to change about Brooks' approach to the game. Different assistants maybe?

I stubbornly maintain that Randy Wittman is my favorite Wizards coach of all time. Brooks was on his way to passing Randy until this year. He's now got work to do.

7. Otto Porter
If there are folks out there dying to tell us how great Otto Porter is as a basketball player (and there are), they point to how efficient he is as a player. Efficient game. Efficient defender. Efficient shooter from two (50%), downtown (44%) and the charity stripe (83%). Third on the team in points per game, second on the team in rebounds per game, first on the team in steals per game, second on the team in Player Efficiency Rating (PER). Efficient, efficient, efficient.

Know why Otto's so efficient? Because if there's a shot he doesn't like, he generally doesn't take it. He engages correctly when the time is right which is awesome. I'd love a team full of Otto Porters. The problem? Otto Porter is the highest paid player on the team. He has to take more risks, drop that efficiency and have a greater effect on the game. During the playoffs, he slipped to the fourth leading scorer behind Mike Scott. I get that Wall and Beal are going to get their shots but 8 shots per game during the playoffs for the man making more than anyone else on the team don't cut it.

8. Free Agents

Two years ago, Al Horford chose the Boston Celtics over the Washington Wizards. He blamed it on the fans. Yes, the fans. Like the Wizards fans. Yep, you and me. I think there's something else going on.

Two years ago, the same summer that Al Horford signed a max contract in Boston and the Wizards answered with millions and millions for Ian Mahinmi, Andrew Nicholson and Jason Smith, the Philadelphia 76ers had just finished a season in which they won just 10 games. This year they won 52 games, a mark that the Wizards haven't hit since 1979. 

What does that have to do with free agency? Well, in the scrap pile that is buyout season in the NBA, the Sixers, winners of just 10 games two years ago, picked up Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova, two legitimate rotation players. The Wizards got Ramon Sessions. Now I'm not knocking Sessions. He filled in nicely as Tomas Satoransky's backup. But it's telling that when John Wall came back from injury that Sessions couldn't even get in a game. And after the Wizards signed Ty Lawson before the playoffs, Ramon couldn't even get dressed for some games. Yes, the same Ty Lawson who couldn't get an NBA contract before the season started. Why can Philly sign quality free agents mid-season and the Wizards can't?

I'm thinking Horford choosing Boston had more to do with confidence in this team's direction than the fans. Call me crazy. I'm also thinking the Wizards have zero chance of attracting a ring chasing veteran that's got some life left this offseason. Call me crazy there too if you must.

9. John Wall

I hate to say anything negative about John Wall. He's my favorite Wizards player of all time and the Wizards best player of all time (Wizards, not Bullets, folks). But we can all improve, right? 

If I had two wishes for John Wall this offseason it would be this. First, live up to the challenge Kobe Bryant gave him (and which he accepted) to make NBA All-Defensive First Team. I get that the knee injuries probably held him back this year from being all he could be on the defensive end but we need more. John could be a serious defensive stopper in this league. He's got all the physical tools and is one of the best shot blockers in the league. All it takes from here on out is effort. No more letting guys go by and trying to poke the ball away from behind. When it works, it's great; when it doesn't, you just let your man go right by you forcing someone else to rotate or just allowing an easy bucket.

Second, get some ball skills coaching. I've seen a number of Wizards bloggers imploring John to get together with Drew Hanlen who's worked with both Bradley Beal and Kelly Oubre to improve their skills. Last summer, John embarked on a barnstorming tour of closed gyms visiting and working out with other NBA superstars. John is one of the scariest point guards for opponents to defend. Imagine him with an improved handle. If there's one thing that drives me nuts about John's game (other than the matador defense cited above), it's the bad turnover. Some folks have told me you can't have an aggressive John Wall without them. Why not?

10. Two Way Contracts

This fall, the Wizards will finally field a G League (formerly NBDL or D-League) team. When they do, they will become the 27th franchise to do so. Not the last of adopters, but awfully late, right?

Over the past few years, I've waited for this to happen and watched player after player be shipped off to who knows where to play with other teams' systems and develop not much at all. Or at least not in a way that would benefit the Wizards. Maybe next year will be different.

Of course I thought that about our two way contracts this year. In case you missed it, this was the first year the NBA allowed two way contracts. What does that mean? A player signed under a two way contract spends the majority of his time in the G League but is able to be called up to the NBA level by one team and one team only. It's a way teams can identify developing talent relatively inexpensively which could help them in the future. 

In the past, the Wizards have treated the G League like an obligation and not a benefit. They have engaged in the most minimal ways and predictably, they have reaped pretty much zero benefit. I was shocked when the team was a relatively early adopter of the two way contracts, locking up their maximum two shortly after the draft. But my mid-season Michael Young was gone and it took until game 82 for Devin Robinson to get in a game.

Will it change when the team has a G League team of their own? There are no indicators that it will. But the Wizards have to change here. It seems organizational from top to bottom.

11. Season Ticket Costs

I know I've ranted plenty about this subject in the last few months but I have to bring it up again. Considering everything I've written about in this post so far, do we really think the Wizards deserve to raise ticket prices by up to 20%? What are they selling, exactly? Unless something serious changes this summer, we've gone in one year from a team in the top two or three in the Eastern Conference to a team that has been passed by Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Indiana with younger rosters with more upside and more cap flexibility.

I get that Wizards tickets can sell better now than five years ago. I get that John Wall and Bradley Beal form a backcourt duo that people are willing to pay to see. But if they don't win it won't last long. People will become bored and lose interest in the same old Wizards. The best way to get fans in seats in my opinion is to build loyalty and a can't miss experience for season ticket holders. To me, that means a more competitive team and cheaper tickets that can't be re-sold. I floated this idea before on this blog and I'm still all in on this concept.

Charging me 20% more next year is close to criminal. But as I've already said, nobody cares.

12. Missed Opportunity

This is my last point on this post. If there was a year, however improbable it might seem, that the Wizards might have made a run at the NBA Finals, it was this one. Now, keep in mind, I'm not saying win the NBA Championship. I said NBA Finals and that's probably it. Think about it, at the beginning of the season it seemed like Cleveland this year was not the lock they have been in the past few years to come out of the East; Boston after major trades may have needed a couple of years to gel; and nipping at the heels of the top teams in the East (which presumably at the beginning year included the Wiz) were the maybe-really-good-in-the-future-but-not-ready-this-year Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks. It seemed like the Wizards if they were really serious could have sneaked in there.

Now, I get that with the Eastern Conference Finals about to tip off this weekend and both Cleveland and Boston looking like there's no way the Wizards could beat them that things don't look quite like I described them in the paragraph above. But what if the Wizards had really made a serious run from the beginning. Yes, John Wall's injury derailed some things but the team was losing to Phoenix and Dallas and Brooklyn (twice) before Wall went down. Flip 13 of those 17 bad losses I've listed above and the Wiz are in second place.

Too rosy an evaluation? Maybe. What I've written above still wouldn't have overcome the poorly constructed roster and the fact that free agents don't want to sign in Washington and John Wall's injury. But we'll also never know because of the overconfident, don't care way the team including the coaching staff went about this year. These opportunities don't come along that often. Look at the next two years for the Wizards: they are stuck with the same general manager who got them into this mess with the same coach who has struggled with late game execution with the same lineup that's a year older (which is a bad thing in some spots) and no ability to sign free agents for any kind of salary. How was last year not the golden opportunity? The Wizards are faced with a situation where they are going to have to do something different to fundamentally avoid repeating the same mistakes and they have shown no tendency to do that in the past.

Maybe I'm being too harsh but to me the plan that Ted and Ernie came up with a few years ago has failed. What now? You're putting the hopes of fans in the care of the same people and expecting different results. It's a measure of how despondent I as a fan feel that I could come up with 12 things that I don't like about the current situation. I could have kept going. At one point I had 14 but just felt that would make too long a post. This situation needs some serious help. It's on everyone in the organization. Prove to the fans that you are charging more money next year to watch this mess that you care.

Sam Cassell feeling the mood of Wizards fans. Although the Wiz did win this game.

ESPN NBA Management Rankings

Last month, ESPN released its 2017 NBA Management Rankings, a list of coaches, general manager/team presidents and owners of every NBA franchise ranked from 1 to 30. This is the third year out of the last four that the TV network has released such rankings, starting in 2014 and again a year later in 2015 before the revised list was published in March. I couldn't find anything for 2016 so I'm assuming they just skipped last year. 

This year, the Wizards did pretty well by the folks in Bristol, Connecticut, ranking 12th overall, 9th in coaching (Scott Brooks) and 14th in GM/President (Ernie Grunfeld) with their only bottom half of the league (barely) coming in ownership at 16th (Ted Leonsis). It's certainly better than they fared two years ago when they finished overall at 21st with the highest ranking in any category being ownership, which just like this year, finished in the 16 spot.

Now I'm not exactly sure who has input into these rankings over at ESPN. Two years ago they referred to their ESPN Forecast Panel as the authors of the results. They also provided a link justifying why their panel produces "the most accurate predictions in the game" before referring to the process as "the future of forecasting." There was a list of six names at the bottom of that page, two of whom were titled economist or microeconomist although I'm not sure those folks are the entire panel. This year, the Panel seems to be a little more mysterious but here's the thing: I'm not sure these people have any idea what they are talking about.

So I get that the statement I just made is a little bit laughable. After all, I'm an architect who blogs about being a Wizards fan on nights and weekends and these folks are paid professionals who are presumably respected in their field. I also can't take issue with them ranking the San Antonio Spurs first overall in 2015 and 2017 and the New York Knicks as last overall both of those same years. I mean, who would really argue with those results?

But that's sort of the point. What panel wouldn't put the Spurs first and the Knicks last? It's the results in between that are leaving me questioning the value of this ranking in total because it seems to be a what have you done for me lately contest, with on court results determining the opinion of the evaluators based on what's already happened. Look, I can tell you who wins each NBA division at the end of the season; it's predicting it at the beginning the year and stating why that's the hard part. I think all these folks are looking at is results after the fact. And that just ain't that hard.

Scott Brooks: From 20th to 9th in two years while taking one of the two off. Such progress!

So you need some evidence, right? Let's start with the Wizards. Two years ago, my beloved team finished 26th in coaching in this ranking under then head coach Randy Wittman, a guy who was pretty much universally reviled by any sort of NBA analystics guy. This year, Scott Brooks has the coaching on our team ranked 17 spots higher than two years ago. That makes sense based on him leading the team to more wins and the franchise's first division title since 1979, right? I'm not really proving my own point am I?

Know where Brooks, who was then coaching the Oklahoma City Thunder, finished two years ago? 20th. So I guess that involuntary year off really made Scottie a way better coach, huh? Probably not. Or maybe a bunch of guys ahead of him quit the profession?  Well, yes, if you consider three a lot; but they (Kevin McHale, George Karl and David Blatt) were relieved of their responsibilities. So what's the deal?

Well it turns out, according to the Forecast Panel, some coaches just aren't as good this year as they were two years ago. Atlanta's Mike Budenholzer dropped from 2nd to 11th; Portland's Terry Stotts went from 7th to 14th; Tom Thibodeau switched teams and turned his number 5 spot with the Bulls into a 13 ranking with the Timberwolves; Dave Joerger did something similar (11 to 23) by bolting Memphis for Sacramento; and Frank Vogel was also on the wrong side of history by taking the Magic job this year, dropping his ESPN coaching rank from 9 to 24. All five of these coaches posted worse records this year than they did two years ago and turned a combined 254 wins (.620 winning percentage) in 2015 into 176 wins (.429 winning percentage) this year.

I'm maybe being a little unfair. Some coaches (Erik Spoelstra and Rick Carlisle) are still highly thought of despite not making the playoffs this season. And no doubt they are good coaches. Then again, maybe they are just saved by having led at least one team to a championship this century. But what's the excuse for the change of heart on Brooks and the five other coaches? I say it's team performance. And that sucks. Either you can coach or you can't. And the panel of experts ought to know that.

So let's move on, shall we? Let's get back to the Wizards. This year Team President Ernie Grunfeld looks like a pretty good guy to make personnel decisions according to ESPN, finishing in the top half in this category. Yet two years ago he was 20th. So why the sudden change of heart? He's executing the same plan he was two years ago but this year the team he's been assembling has been more successful than any other collection of players for this franchise since the 1970s.  Why move him up? Is it because the folks ranking him two years ago didn't understand what the plan was and how it would work out? I say yes.

The ranking mistakes aren't as pronounced in the GM/President category but let me offer a few thoughts. The Phoenix Suns seem to have one of the most questionable personnel decision records over the last few years, choosing to lock up Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight long term while letting Goran Dragic and Isaiah Thomas leave Arizona. But two years ago, ESPN had that franchise's front office ranked ahead of the Wizards (this year they are 11 spots behind) probably because the Suns two years ago were seen as way overperforming when finishing with 39 wins. Clearly ESPN's experts knew about as much as the Suns' General Manager Ryan McDonough (still employed by the way) when he decided to let Dragic and Thomas play for someone else.

The panel was also seemingly in love with Sam Hinkie's process in Philadelphia in 2014, choosing him over Grunfeld by three spots, but not so wed to the aftermath, dropping Philly seven spots behind the Wiz this year. But most striking seems to be their swing on Mike Budenholzer in Atlanta, who two years ago cobbled together a lineup that won 60 games, but who is 17 games worse this year. Sorry, Bud, ESPN drops you from 6th to 15th for that. Looks like ESPN is following the records. Again.

Finally let's look at the owners. And here the Panel may have gotten things mostly right precisely because they kept past NBA Championship winners towards the top of the ranking and let the rest of the teams stack up from there. And let's face it, of the teams that haven't won titles recently, there is plenty of mediocrity. The last five franchises to win NBA titles have been the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Golden State Warriors, the San Antonio Spurs, the Miami Heat and the Dallas Mavericks. With the exception of Cleveland, these teams all rank in the top six in both 2015 and 2017. Kind of stupid to pick against a winner that's already won, right? Like shooting fish in a barrel.

But ESPN does follow the same recent history rule for ownership too. Cleveland is ranked 7th in this year's survey, the year after they won their first ever title; that's a jump of nine spots from two years ago which was 11 spots higher than 2014. Know what the Cavs' record was in 2014? 33-49. Three years, 27 to 7, same owner. The only difference? A title.  Stick to your guns people or stop predicting when you get things wrong. If Dan Gilbert is fourth worst among owners two years ago, why is he seventh best this year? Winning. Plain and simple.

The same situation plays out elsewhere in the midwest in Chicago. Jerry Riensdorf's basketball acumen got him a top 10 ranking in 2014 when the Bulls were 48-34. But with a 41-41 record, Reinsdorf can't crack the top 20 this year. Good owner two years ago; bad owner now. Makes no sense.

I suppose if ESPN ever does this sort of thing again, I may take a look, but only to get annoyed about how much they are dissing the Wizards for not having a great regular season record or winning a title recently. But this thing is of little value to me. It's all results based. They are just putting the teams who are the most successful at the top of the heap and if the same personnel with the same (or different) team are not quite so successful, they knock them down to the bottom. I'll pass on the "future of forecasting" thanks.  I'll just decide for myself how successful each team is at the end of the season. After all, that's what ESPN's doing.

Championships don't necessarily make you a better owner. Except in ESPN's eyes.

Get Lucky!

Let's start this blog post with a test. Raise your hand if you think Ernie Grunfeld is a below average NBA general manager. Keep your hand up if your judgment is based in whole or in part on his drafting history. I'm guessing a lot of people reading this have at least one hand up. If you do, is it because he drafted Oleksiy Pecherov, Nick Young and JaVale McGee in the first round of successive drafts or is it because he selected Jan Vesely over Klay Thompson, Tomas Satoransky over Draymond Green and traded a pick that he could have used on Stephen Curry? Put both hands up if it's all of the above. Pretty damning, right? I mean this guy really doesn't know what he's doing.

So who do you think drafts well? How about the Golden State Warriors, since in the last seven drafts they've selected Stephen Curry (2009), Klay Thompson (2011), Harrison Barnes (2012), Festus Ezili (2012) and Draymond Green (2012)? All five are still with the team and three of the five (Curry, Thompson and Green) have made at least one NBA All-Star Game, not to mention Curry being named MVP of the league two years in a row and the franchise appearing in the last two NBA Finals (winning just one thanks to Keke Vandeweghe).

Sounds pretty good, right? Never mind the fact that there was a different general manager in place in 2009/2011 vs. 2012 and that the same guy who drafted Stephen Curry in 2009 selected Epke Udoh with the number six overall pick a year later. And if anyone thinks the strategy used by the Warriors to select Draymond Green with the 35th pick in the 2012 Draft was genius, consider that if they had to do it all over again, they might select him over Harrison Barnes at the seven spot but they would for sure certainly pick Draymond ahead of Festus Ezeli five picks earlier. Draymond's game only took off after he lost 20 pounds one year after he was drafted. The Dubs for sure got some good bounces on this stuff.

Let's try another test. Raise your hand if you would have selected Kevin Durant over Greg Oden with the number one overall pick in 2007. Or Marc Gasol over Nick Young that same year. Raise your hand or keep it up if you would have grabbed Russell Westbrook over O.J. Mayo or Michael Beasley the very next year. What about in 2011? Raise one hand if you would have picked Kawhi Leonard, two for Jimmy Butler or zero for Derrick Williams if you have the number two overall pick. Did you have at least one hand raised throughout this paragraph? If you did, I say you are lying or your memory is really short.

In the 2007 Draft, at least half of the teams would have selected Oden over Durant. Heck, the Seattle SuperSonics might have selected Oden if they were unlucky enough (as it turned out) to have the number one spot that year. Know how many teams passed on Marc Gasol? 25, including the Los Angeles Lakers who drafted him. But only after they picked up Javaris Crittenton and Sun Yue before him. In 2008 the whole debate about who goes number one centered around Michael Beasley and Derrick Rose; Russell Westbrook was NEVER an option. And Leonard (drafted 15th) and Butler (drafted 30th) would never in a million years have been selected by any team ahead of Derrick Williams in 2011. Discussing anything else is revisionist history.

Let's get back to Ernie Grunfeld. Assuming he still trades the 2009 five pick for Randy Foye and Mike Miller (total bust of course), he still could have drafted Rajon Rondo or Paul Millsap or Kyle Lowry in 2006 instead of Pecherov; Klay Thompson, Kawhi Leonard or Jimmy Butler in 2011 instead of Vesely; and then of course Draymond Green over Tomas Satoransky in 2012. But who's he supposed to take in 2007 instead of Nick Young? Al Thornton? Acie Law? Julian Wright? Oh wait, all those guys were gone already. What about Daequan Cook? Wilson Chandler? Morris Almond? I mean I get Mo Almond was about the most successful Wizard ever (6-0 record) but look at the list and tell me who he's supposed to pick with the benefit of hindsight. That year was just a bad year.

What about John Wall? That pick was pretty good, don't you think? Would you rather have Evan Turner, who was really the only other option at number one anyway? The answer is no. You might say you want Paul George or DeMarcus Cousins but you wouldn't have claimed that so articulately back in 2010. And don't tell me Grunfeld had no other choice but to take Wall and therefore gets no credit whatsoever because there was another choice. There's were tons of other choices.

Should we pick on the Bradley Beal or Otto Porter picks? The Wizards could have Steven Adams or C.J. McCollum instead of Otto. Or Damian Lillard or Andre Drummond instead of Beal. At this point, is there really that much of a difference here? Remember the Wizards could have opted for Thomas Robinson (selected ahead of Lillard and Drummond) or Ben McLemore (picked ahead of McCollum and Adams) but didn't. Yes, Lillard and Drummond have made the All-Star Game but Derrick Rose won an MVP and can't stay on the court any more. Wait a few years before you start picking on Beal and Porter.

So what's the point here? Well, it's certainly not to exonerate Ernie Grunfeld for all his past draft mistakes because for sure there have been some (Pecherov sticks out really badly to me). But it is to remind everyone that we can't just go back and re-write history to complain about what ifs using the absolute best possible outcome from every draft year. It doesn't work that way. Do you remember how Grunfeld got trashed for picking Vesely in 2011? No? Know why? Because he didn't. Fox Sports and NBADraft.net gave the Wizards a B that year; Sports Illustrated's Sam Amick and Ball Don't Lie gave the Wiz an A+. A+!!!!! For Vesely, Singleton and Mack. Everyone that year was convinced the Wizards needed an athletic big man to run with John Wall and plenty of people loved Jan Vesely in that role. Nobody knew that pick was going to turn out horribly.

When the selections start Thursday night, rest assured there are about a million mock drafts out there that all look relatively similar. And if any team picks much outside that order, whatever general manager has dared to deviate from the plan will get immediately crucified like the second coming of the Kristaps Porzingis pick last year. Oh wait a minute...so far that pick's looking pretty good. There's no crystal ball, no surefire thing. There's a ton of luck and things breaking the right way here. And there are a lot of things to derail any exciting draft pick.

At the end of the Draft this week, every team is going to go home convinced they did the best they could and they made some smart picks (well, maybe not the Wizards because we don't have any picks). But we won't really know until next season, or the season after or maybe five or six seasons from now. There's so much luck involved in this process. Well, unless maybe you select Jonny Flynn fifth overall...because what was David Kahn thinking that year? Don't overreact to anything about the Draft this week. It's a little bit of a crap shoot after all. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. And sometimes you have to wait a while to find out.

 

Jonny Flynn...we hardly knew ye.

Now What?

So the Washington Wizards 2014-2015 campaign is done. Has been now for about three weeks. I'm now reduced to rooting as hard as possible for any scenario that will have the Cleveland Cavaliers end their season without an NBA championship. It's sad, I know. The Golden State Warriors can't possibly lose to LeBron James, a hobbled Kyrie Irving and a bench full of also rans and LeBron hangers on, can they? I'm hoping not. Go Dubs!

The Wizards season this year, one could argue, is the most successful they have had it three and a half decades. Actually there's not much doubt about that just viewing that statement factually. The Wizards won more regular season games than they have since 1979, made the second round of the playoffs for only the third time since that same year and managed a better playoff record at 6-4 than at any time since 1979. Yet other folks seem to be lamenting that this season was unsuccessful because the team didn't achieve everything they could have. Well, maybe so. Or maybe not.

For the last two years, I've published a post listing what I think the Wizards should do in the offseason. I'm not going to do that this year, although I've been surprisingly prescient with my posts in 2013 and 2014. I'm not sure if that means the Wizards are listening; or what I'm proposing is common sense; or that I just read a lot of what other people write about the Wizards; or I've just gotten lucky. Regardless, I'm not going to do that this year. Instead I'm going to ask a series of questions. A six pack if you will. That's it. Nothing more.

One could argue that this offseason is different than it has been in years and years for the Wizards. For the first time since 2008, the Wizards face the prospect of having a first round draft pick that is outside the top five. Astonishing as it sounds, it's true. In the last six years we've had four first round draft picks at 1, 5, 3 and 3. The other two years we had none. You know who our three first round picks were the summer before we picked John Wall? JaVale McGee (18), Nick Young (16) and Oleksiy Pecherov (18). Suffice it say we are not that good at drafting in the late teens. This year we pick 19th.

And for the first time in years, it actually seems like with the right moves in June, July and August, the Wizards could be bound for the NBA Finals. Seriously, who besides the Cavaliers is going to stand in our way? How long is the Hawks success sustainable? Those two questions don't count as two of this post's questions. Let's get to those other six right now.

Question 1: Is it time for Ernie and Randy to go?

I know what most people are hoping that I'll say here. I can almost hear the dozen or so people reading this chanting "Yes!" I'm going to disappoint you. I'm not saying yes. Not yet.

I think if you have read every word I've ever written about the Wizards in this blog (I know, who on Earth has done that?), I've been very kind to both Ernie Grunfeld and Randy Wittman. I remember what life as a Wizards fan was like before either of those two got here. In the front office it was terrible personnel decision after terrible contract after terrible trade with a sprinkling of luck thrown in now and then. In the coaching ranks, it was a revolving door of guys who were largely ineffective at winning (Eddie Jordan's the exception here), building a professional locker room culture (Eddie's not an exception here) or getting the guys on the wood to play defense (or here). So rather bemoaning what we've got, I'd rather stand pat. For now. Sort of.

So I get that Ernie Grunfeld's draft record is spotty at best. Not just with the Wizards but going all the way back to his time with the New York Knicks in the 1990s and with the Milwaukee Bucks in the early '00s. But he's pulled off some pretty good trades (Caron Butler for Kwame Brown, anyone? Antawn Jamison for Devin Harris?) and signed some pretty good guys that have panned out really well from Gilbert Arenas (the first time, not the second time) to Paul Pierce (if only we had the team option…). Maybe we need to relieve Ernie of his duties come Draft night and get someone else to make the pick.

I also get that Randy Wittman is not the most glamorous of coaches, that his teams in Washington the last two years have maybe underperformed in the regular season and that there are some fairly vocal critics with national platforms (Bill Simmons) calling Randy a "terrible coach" among other things.

But here's the thing. Tom Thibodeau had tremendous success in the regular season with the Chicago Bulls in the last five seasons but he maybe wore his players out on meaningless games in late October through mid-April. He's no longer employed as a head coach in the NBA. A lot of people seem to think Mark Jackson is an awesome coach and deserves a lot of credit for the Golden State Warriors being in this year's NBA Finals. But his players and coaches were in almost open rebellion against him. Randy's players have nothing but praise for him and John Wall credits Randy with making him play defense. Mark Jackson is also no longer employed as a head coach in the NBA. And if Bill Simmons is so great, has anyone ever offered him a spot as an NBA head man or even as an assistant? I'm guessing no.

Randy wins in the playoffs and his teams play defense. That's enough for now. Let's see what he can do with a stretch four, if Ernie can find one. Coach stays!

Question 2: Are Bradley Beal and Otto Porter really as good as they were in the postseason?

Regular season and postseason stats for the 2014-2105 NBA season for Bradley Beal and Otto Porter are below.

Bradley Beal

• Regular Season: 33.4 MPG, 15.3 PPG, 3.1 APG.
• Playoffs: 41.8 MPG, 23.4 PPG, 4.6 APG.

Otto Porter

• Regular Season: 19.4 MPG, 6.0 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 0.9 APG.
• Playoffs: 33.1 MPG, 10.0 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 1.8 APG.

These two guys were number three overall picks in consecutive NBA drafts and they are both 21 years old. Bradley was able to be far more aggressive in the playoffs and looked like he deserved to be a player licking his chops for a max contract extension next summer. And Porter…wow! I mean this kid grew up in the postseason. I think he's ready to start next season, even if Paul Pierce finds it in his heart to exercise his player option and come back to D.C.

Beal and Porter now seem to be the key to the Wizards making the leap from a second round hoping for more playoff team to a Finals contender. Based on this postseason, there is every indication they are both ready. I'm hoping the answer to this question is yes.

Question 3: Will we ever see another legit halftime show at Verizon Center?

A little over a month into the 2013-2014 season, I wrote a blog post about the lack of halftime shows at Wizards games season to date. It was honestly a bit of a filler post, something to write about between gushing about the Martell Webster bobblehead I picked up earlier that month and the Nenê bobblehead I was looking forward to later the same month. I figured eventually we'd end up with a serious halftime show and that it was just sort of a scheduling issue that had forced us to watch kids playing basketball and local folks singing in the inaugural Monumental Talent Showcase that year. I wasn't really intending it to be an honest criticism of the Wizards organization. Besides, I don't really care that much.

But now a season and three quarters later, we still haven't had a professional halftime show. I saw one in Milwaukee in the one game I saw up there in the very cold winter of 2014 and I was only there for one game. But in the 79 regular season games and ten playoff games I've sat through in the last two NBA seasons at Verizon Center, I've seen none. Not a one. Zip. Zilch. No Beale Street Flippers, no Drums of Thunder, no University of Maryland Gymkhana, no Quick Change, no nothing.

Now if this is all a cost saving measure to keep season ticket prices low low low, I'm good with all that. But there's been no sort of statement to that effect or any other rationale offered. In the meantime, I'm starting to suffer from an inferiority complex. If other teams have halftime shows, why can't we? And keep in mind I don't really care. It just feels like we are being cheap and that bothers me. I'm hoping it's not a sign of other cost cutting measures to come.

Question 4: Can the Wizards draft someone who can shoot free throws?

The Wizards free throw shooting during the past couple of seasons has driven me CRAZY! They are FREE! For nothing. Nobody's going to block or challenge the shot. Get good at making these things and maybe just maybe we win some more close games.

The Wizards ranked 21st in the NBA this past season in free throw percentage at a paltry 74.2 percent. 21st is not a good spot to be in. Looking at the team numbers, it doesn't really seem like the Wizards free throw shooting was a deterrent to winning more games. I mean if they jumped into the top 10 in the league and shot 76.2 percent like the 10th place Sacramento Kings, they would only add 0.4 points per game to their point total (based on 21.4 attempts per game). Let's face it, the Wizards didn't lose any games by 0.4 points this year.

But here's my rub with the Wizards and free throw shooting. While their free throw percentage wasn't that much of a difference maker based on the season stats, the NBA doesn't award the Larry O'Brien Trophy on that basis. The Wizards had some good free throw shooting nights and some horrible free throw shooting nights. It's the number of horrible nights I'd like to see reduced. Just look at game five of the Atlanta series, where the Wizards shot just 68.8 percent from the charity stripe. Add a couple more makes and that game is ours in regulation or at worst we take it to overtime.

So who's going to be that dependable clutch free throw shooter for Washington's professional basketball team? Well, I don't know. Nobody shot better than Rasual Butler this year at the line and he shot 79.1 percent. That's lower than the combined average of everyone on the Memphis Grizzlies squad  who led the league in free throw percentage. We really don't have a stone cold ice in his veins knockdown end of game guy.

What does my question have to do with all this? Well, I guess it's a plea not to draft someone who can't shoot free throws. Look at the Wizards' last eight first round picks and how they fared before the NBA from the free throw line.

• Otto Porter, Jr.: 75.1 percent. Good.
• Bradley Beal: 76.9 percent. Really good.
• Chris Singleton: 59.2 percent. Really, Chris?
• Jan Vesely: 61.6 percent. Stunned this is higher than Singleton's.
• Trevor Booker: 62.1 percent. Not good.
• Kevin Seraphin: 60.0 percent. Small sample size but not good.
• John Wall: 75.4 percent. Good.
• JaVale McGee: 51.4 percent. Do I need to use this to prove that this pick was a stretch?

I know we shouldn't use any sort of litmus test when it comes to drafting players, but could we at least find someone who can shoot 70 percent from the line? Maybe that would help us next year.

Question 5: Can the Wizards please get rid of Wale?

I hope the answer is yes. What does this guy do to add value? And will he just bail if the Wizards ever get less than good again? Where was he during the lean times? Apparently rooting for the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Denver Nuggets while uttering the words "I gotta be honest, I'm not the biggest Wizards fan." Well guess what, dude? I AM one of the biggest Wizards fan and to see you installed as the Wizards' Creative Liaison doesn't thrill me that much.

OK, so maybe I'm just ranting here and I'm being really unfair to Wale. I get that most people don't find his opening-credits-to-a-Wizards-home-game music as discordant and awkward as me. And I'm probably really sore about someone who professed some love for the Cavs and Nuggets and none for the Wiz a couple of years ago now draped all over my favorite team as if he'd been there applauding night in and night out while JaVale McGee and Andray Blatche called Verizon Center home. At least he shows up and give the team some love now right?

Wrong. And this is what really gets me. I admit I missed two games during the regular season and maybe Wale made an appearance at both. But honestly, I only remember him showing up to two regular season games this year: opening night against Milwaukee (when he was performing live) and the April 3 game against the New York Knicks. Two games?!?!? (or four if he attended the two I missed) Are you kidding me? The Wizards' press release about Wale's appointment as Creative Liaison said he is a "die-hard Wizards fan." I don't think so.

Question 6: Are we really pinning all our hopes on luring Kevin Durant back home?
First of all, if we are and that's our strategy for winning an NBA title and securing a future perennial contender for long suffering Wizards fans, you could make me the General Manager and I could make that pitch. I might need some help with some of the finer points like filling out the roster with bargain contracts but I could handle the heavy lifting.

The two questions I have about this strategy (no these don't count as two additional questions) are can we afford him and do we need him? Barring any unexpected changes in the NBA Players' Union's strategy, the salary cap is set to explode during the 2016 offseason and the maximum salary superstar players can receive will skyrocket along with the cap. John Wall's current just less than $16 million salary during the 2016-2017 season is going to seem like a bargain and Marcin Gortat's $12 pricetag is going be dirt cheap. But the new way higher limits on contracts are going to fill in the gap. Bradley Beal AND Kevin Durant? You know KD already expects the max. He already said so! Get ready to open your checkbook, Ted Leonsis, and Ernie Grunfeld better be trolling the D-League for bargains. I don't see it.

Assuming both Bradley Beal and Otto Porter next year play anything like they did in the postseason this year (see question 2 above), do we even need Durant? I know this is tempting fate here but think about it. How good is a starting lineup of 27 year old John Wall, 24 year olds Bradley Beal and Otto Porter, 33 year old Marcin Gortat (with very low mileage) and anyone else to kick off the 2017-2018 season? Split Durant's salary between a serviceable starting four and a couple of production bench players and who's going to challenge that team?

That's it. I've just told every Washington hoops fan dying for KD in a Wizards uniform that we don't need him. What else can I offer? Probably should shut up now.