2014 Off Season Priorities

The NBA Finals started tonight, a re-match of last year's seven game Miami Heat - San Antonio Spurs series which the Heat stole after the Spurs absolutely blew it in game six on their home floor. Just like last year, I'll be rooting as hard as I possibly can against the Heat, hoping they have just worn their roster just too thin after last off season's roster cuts, particularly (and I hate to say this based on his time in Washington) Mike Miller. Miami may come to regret that move.

The fact that it's NBA Finals time and I haven't written about the Wizards' off season priorities also means that I am behind in my blogging, so far in fact that one of my priorities or the team has already been resolved. What can I say? I have a full time job and I took vacation the last week or so during the Conference Finals. I'd be right on time if I could just write this blog full time. I'd also be a lot poorer.

The state of the Wizards seems to look a lot brighter this off season than it did last year. Instead of heading back to the Draft Lottery for the sixth consecutive year, the team is coming off its second most regular season victories and its most successful playoff run in the last 35 years. The starting five produced pretty well this year and the bench certainly improved in the second half of the season. Last year I thought a couple of tweaks could get us the seventh or eighth seed in the playoffs. Turns out I shot too low. Yet, as with any team that finished in the five spot in the Eastern Conference in recent years, questions remain and there's a long way to go before the Wizards can be considered a legitimate contender.

This year's off season will look a whole lot different than last year for a number of reasons. Unlike last year when the team held the number three pick in the Draft, this year our only selection comes in the second round, meaning the chance of us snagging a contributor on June 26 seems pretty remote, especially considering our recent track record in the Draft. The Wizards also face two of their five starters (Trevor Ariza and Marcin Gortat) being unrestricted free agents, as opposed to last year's one (Martell Webster). Fortunately the team possesses a good amount of salary cap space to sign free agents and last year's off season signing of Al Harrington, who presumably had other options available to him, is likely a good indicator that free agents might actually want to come play in Washington.

So with all that in mind, here's what I'd do if I were running the show at Verizon Center. I'm not, for which most fans should be eternally grateful.

1. Re-Sign Randy Wittman

I realize this has already happened. The Wizards signed Randy to a new three year deal at a rumored $3 million per year this past Tuesday. The third year is a team option, so it's really just a two year deal guaranteed. I've written a couple of times in this blog that I thought Randy was a key in turning the culture of the franchise from a group of irresponsible knuckleheads to (dare I say it) a model of professionalism. While the Wizards had some significant concentration lapses during the regular season which led to some bad losses, overall the team took their performance seriously and the playoffs were a totally different story. Randy clearly had the team's attention.

The knock on Randy seems to be his past coaching record. Local media seems to delight in trotting out Randy's "worst winning percentage in NBA history of all coaches with a minimum 400 games coached." I think it's safe to say this current year's team is likely the only one other coaches would actually envy, so it's no surprise that the results this year were far better than all his other years as a head coach in the NBA when he was working with rebuilding teams with little talent.

I'm not sure what a realistically better option there is for this team at this time. We have a coach who clearly has the commitment of the entire roster who just led the team to it's most successful season since 1979. I'm not sure what more we could want. Certainly bringing in a rookie coach (which happened a lot this past off season) doesn't seem to make sense. The only other option would be to get a proven winning coach who wants to come to D.C. to coach. George Karl seemed to be the popular choice of some local writers. But there are no guarantees in going that route. I think the players' support for Randy and the job that he has done so far makes him the logical and best choice. Way to go, coach. Well deserved!

2. Maintain the Starting Five…Or Close To It

The Wizards face an offseason where two of their most productive starters are unrestricted free agents, meaning the team has absolutely no control over re-signing Marcin Gortat or Trevor Ariza. Both will likely command large salaries on the open market and I'm sure their agents are salivating over the deals other teams will put in front of these two guys.

For me, the biggest challenge for the Wizards this off season is at the starting center spot. Marcin Gortat is a legitimate NBA starting center. Nobody else on the team is, even if Kevin Seraphin stays with the squad. With the Wizards expected to have more than $15 million in salary cap space there's certainly a lot of cash to hand out this off season. Will Gortat be the team's top priority? What about Ariza? Ariza is clearly the team's best defender and had perhaps the most productive offensive year of his career. He was absolutely deadly from three point range.

For me, the priority is Gortat. There are so few true centers in the NBA these days and I think Gortat values playing in Washington with John Wall with Randy Wittman as coach. The sort of chemistry he has and could have with Wall is difficult to find. I'm hoping there's a hometown discount in there somewhere. After all, what's one or two million dollars less per year? One year of his next contract is going to get him more money than I will make in my lifetime. It's for sure enough to keep him comfortable.

I would also love to see Ariza back next year, but at a sensible price, which in my mind may be the same as he made this year. I love Trevor Ariza's play. If it weren't for Martell Webster on the team, I'd be wearing a number 1 jersey to Verizon Center every game. I love Trevor's ability to shut down opponents and I love his ability to score the three. But I also believe John Wall has something to do with his offensive output. I thought it was a mistake to start Ariza over Webster this year since Martell performed so well last year. But Ariza at the starting three spot worked exceptionally well this year, whereas Martell's production fell off significantly. If we can't retain Trevor next year, I believe Martell will fill in adequately until Otto Porter is ready. And I believe Otto is the real deal.

I'd try to get both Ariza and Gortat back in the fold. But if negotiations proved too difficult, I'd wrap up Marcin first. He's just way tougher to replace.

3. Shop Frugally

The Wizards end of season salary cap number was $70,204,382. Of that about $70 million, $9,140,915 (or so) was spent on four guys in the last year of their rookie deals, specifically Kevin Seraphin, Trevor Booker, Jan Vesely (I prorated his salary at 54 of 82 games) and Chris Singleton. Rookie contracts are typically the best bargain going in the NBA, a chance to get relatively high production out of guys whose costs are kept low by the rookie salary scale. John Wall, for example, played a little more than 15% of the team's total minutes and made slightly more than 10% of the team's payroll. Next year John's salary will almost double. His minutes won't.

Seraphin, Booker, Vesely and Singleton occupied about 13% of the team's payroll (again, prorating Vesely's number) but only played 14.5% of the team's minutes. Booker was by far the best bargain here, costing about 3.3% of the salary number and playing about 7.9% of the minutes. The other three actually cost more than they produced, even at the relative bargain that is a rookie contract. Next year we are not going to be able to afford that kind of waste if we want to challenge teams like Miami and Indiana, especially with John Wall's salary increase and potential sizeable contracts for Gortat and Ariza, if the team opts to go that route.

I think it's safe to say Chris Singleton will not be back in Washington next year and I suspect neither will Kevin Seraphin, unless we really can't find anyone else to back up the center spot. I think Booker stands a pretty good shot at getting a multi-year deal at or about his current salary (just less than $2.5 million) and I think if the Wizards can wrap him up at that number, they should. The real trick will be to maximize the value with the money that last year went to Seraphin, Vesely and Booker. Drew Gooden and Al Harrington proved to be great value for veteran minimum deals. I'd love to see Gooden back with the team at a similar price point in addition to some other free agent vets that can still contribute. A couple of former Wizards in Emeka Okafor (assuming his back isn't forcing him into retirement) and Caron Butler seem like guys we should at least take a look at.

4. Improve Free Throw Shooting

I can't tell you how many games the Wizards blew this year because of their free throw shooting but there were a number, enough that some serious thought needs to be given to how the team as a whole improves their performance from the charity stripe. The Wizards shot just 13 of 26 from the free throw line in an overtime loss at Oklahoma City in November and faced similar difficulties (11 for 18) in a home loss to Atlanta the next month. One more free throw in regulation in either of those games would have wiped out the extra session and given the Wizards a regulation victory.

Overall, the Wizards finished 25th out of 30 teams in free throw percentage during the regular season. Jan Vesely was the worst of all the Wizards shooting a pitiful 33.9% from the line, good for 450th in the league (there were 463 players who shot a free throw in the regular season this year). And just in case you believe shipping Ves to Denver cured the team of its free throw woes, the team actually shot worse in the post season. Collectively, the Wizards managed to hit only 69.6% of their free throws in the playoffs, good for dead last among the 16 teams who played beyond the regular season this year.

During the 2007-2008 season, the Wizards hired Dave Hopla to help with free throw troubles they were experiencing during the previous season. Dave managed to get the team's free throw percentage up from 76.5% to 78.2%. That may not seem like a lot of improvement; it represented only about 34 points over the course of the 2007-2008 season. But trust me when I say I'd love to have had a few extra points in some of our games this year.

Over and above the 34 extra points, the biggest difference Hopla made that year was with center Brendan Haywood, whose free throw percentage jumped from 54.8% during the 2006-2007 season to 73.5% one season later. Instead of being a free throw liability at the end of games, Brendan became an asset, allowing him more time on the floor to coordinate the Wizards' defense (the Wiz were pretty much hopeless on D without B Wood those years). That change doesn't show up on the free throw statistics but it made a difference. Unfortunately, the next year Dave was gone and so was Brendan's free throw prowess. He shot 47.6% the following year.

If there's a guy out there who can help Nenê raise his 58.3% free throw shooting mark, I'd sign him up. The difference in that one player alone would be worth a lot of money. Remember, there's no salary cap on the coaching staff.

5. Develop a Developmental League Strategy

The National Basketball Development League started the 2013-2014 season with 17 teams. Of those 17 teams, 14 were in an exclusive relationship with a single NBA franchise. For NBA teams affiliated with a single D-League franchise, this allowed the NBA team to have their personnel run basketball operations, appoint the coaching staff and run the exact same offensive and defensive schemes in the NBDL. This arrangement provides a huge benefit for players that are assigned to the D-League by the NBA team. The value in this type of relationship has been cited as critical to player development by a number of NBA teams.

The other 16 teams without a single D-League affiliation do not have the same benefit. Instead, those 16 teams share the remaining three NBDL franchises but have no control over playing time or playbooks, meaning the development component of D-League assignments is basically a crap shoot. The Wizards, not surprisingly to this fan, are one of the 16 teams without an exclusive relationship.

The 2014-2015 NBDL schedule will feature 18 teams, the highest total in league history, after the New York Knicks established a new franchise in White Plains. The Knicks were single affiliated with the Erie Bayhawks last year; the Orlando Magic have managed to snag the Bayhawks as their D-League team next year. Of the 18 teams which will participate next year, all but one have an exclusive relationship with an NBA team. Over the past year, the Memphis Grizzlies have secured the Iowa Energy as their exclusive partner and the Phoenix Suns did likewise with the Bakersfield Jam. For the other 13 NBA teams, that means all 13 share a single NBDL franchise, the Fort Wayne Mad Ants. Fort Wayne is about 550 miles from Washington.

So what exactly is the Wizards' plan in relation to the D-League. If there's one area this franchise has struggled with, it's player development. Are the Wizards actively resisting, slow to react, or just executing some other strategy that is just not apparent? It is not unreasonable to envision a D-League with 30 franchises, one per NBA franchise, in the near future. But what happens until that day for the Wizards? Is sharing a Development League franchise with 12 other teams really useful? I'd love to know.

The First Dozen

When the 2013-2014 NBA schedule was released back in August of this year, I highlighted the Wizards' performance in the first 12 games of the season as a critical indicator of the season's success. Eight of the first 12 games were away from Verizon Center but only four of our opponents in those first dozen games made the playoffs last year. For a team last year that struggled on the road and against non-playoff opponents, I saw this first stretch of games as a potential bellwether of how our season might turn out.

Friday's road loss against the Toronto Raptors in Canada marked the twelfth game of the Wizards 2013-2014 season and I'm still not sure what we have. Our record this year is clearly way better at 4-8 than it was last year at 0-12 but my hopes that this year's team can duplicate last year's mid-season form, when we ran off a 21-15 record between January 7 and March 22, haven't been realized. In fact, I'm not sure we are any closer to understanding if this team is the playoff team they want to be after the first 15 percent of the season.

So in my confused fan state right now, and after having watched the Wizards knock off the New York Knicks last night behind a quality second half at Verizon Center, below is a six pack of thoughts about the first dozen games of the current season.

1. The East Is Terrible

OK, so this thought is not so much about the Wizards but about the Eastern Conference in general. But this fact, unless it changes drastically, is going to continue to keep the Wizards in playoff contention even if our record continues to languish below .500. At the close of Friday night's games, only four teams in the Eastern Conference could claim winning records: the Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat, Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls. Every other team in the conference, including the Atlantic Division leading Toronto Raptors and championship hopefuls the Brooklyn Nets and New York Knicks, had lost more than they had won.

The Conference is almost begging a team or two to take a step forward and fill in behind the four winning teams listed above and I don't see why that can't be the Wizards. Sure, we're not going to win the Eastern Conference title this year. As of this date, that looks like a two team race between the Pacers and Heat. But why not step up and make the playoffs, even if it's as a seven or eight seed? I see an enormous opportunity, especially with the Nets and Knicks in questionable at best shape. Go for it guys!

2. What Happened to the D?

Last year the Wizards managed to finish in the top third in the league in defensive efficiency behind some underrated individual defenders and some solid team defense. This year, the Wizards are hovering around the top of the bottom third of the league in that same category. Better than at the bottom of the bottom third, but not like last year.

I guess I'm hoping that part of this is early season jitters. In the first month of the season teams often struggle to defend more than they do score. Great defense over a long period of time relies on team play and a deep understanding of defensive schemes and responsibilities. Everybody has to be on the same page. Great individual offensive outputs can often be pulled off at the expense of poor defense and thus it's easier to have great individual offensive games than great team defensive success.

But there's no doubt we miss Emeka Okafor and probably to a lesser extent A.J. Price. I'm not knocking the Emeka for Marcin Gortat trade. I completely believe we made the right move to bring someone like Marcin in (we'll talk about the draft pick later) but he's not a premiere rim protector like Emeka. The last line of defense is often missing at the hoop without Okafor. We've been exposed badly in some situations especially by opposing teams' point guards either dribble penetrating or cutting to the rim without the ball. Hopefully with time and commitment from everyone, team D will improve to maybe the low teens.

3. The Team Is Paper Thin

One of the most glaring deficiencies about the Wizards team last year was a noticeable lack of depth. Other than Trevor Ariza, we really lacked dependability when we went beyond the starting five. Four of our roster spots were taken by guys (Trevor Booker, Kevin Seraphin, Chris Singleton and Jan Vesely) who were inconsistent at best, and that may be really kind, and we had effectively no backcourt depth.

So one of the off season priorities for the front office seemed to be to correct that situation. We re-signed Martell Webster, inked Eric Maynor to back up the point guard position and towards the end of the summer added free agent Al Harrington. I'm not sure that's fixed our lack of depth. Before the game against the Raptors Friday night the Wizards ranked 29th in bench scoring, ahead of only their opponent that night. In the 96-88 loss that night, the Wizards amassed only nine bench points, far behind Toronto's 25.

Admittedly, both Ariza and Harrington missed that game due to injuries, but Jan Vesely being the first man off the bench speaks volumes about the team's depth. Despite Jan's improved play in this first month, he can still only score on fast break and putback opportunities. Maynor as the backup point guard hasn't added much at all so far and I don't think Garrett Temple, while a quality third string guard, is the answer as a first backup in the backcourt. The team has managed to pull off wins in three of the five games both Ariza and Harringon have missed which is encouraging. But eventually somebody needs to step up and become a dependable bench player. Maybe first round draft pick Otto Porter is the guy, if he ever gets over the hip flexor and suits up.

Marcin Gortat's addition has been key through the first 12. I can't imagine where we would be without him.

4. Personnel Decisions Continue to Haunt Us

The Wizards' roster this year consists of four true backcourt players, one true center and ten other frontcourt players. Martell Webster and Trevor Ariza are still being used as shooting guards for periods in some games but they are really small forwards. Who's kidding who there?

One of the reasons for the Wizards being so forward heavy is our draft history. In 2010 we nabbed two forwards in the draft in Kevin Seraphin and Trevor Booker. A year later we selected Jan Vesely and Chris Singleton. Despite middling or lower production over the years each of those guys has been on the team, they are still all under contract and consuming roster spots. At this point in the season, only one of those four is averaging more than 15 minutes per game (Vesely) and the four combined are contributing less than ten points per contest. Singleton's out with an injury so these comments are a little unfair to him, but I'm not sure he's cracking the rotation in a significant way. That's four first round picks taking up almost 30 percent of the roster and contributing less than ten percent of the offense. Ideally, I'd love to have someone more dependable in one of those spots. Fortunately, all four are not under contract next year; that doesn't help us this year.

I see two potential personnel decisions that might loom large in the coming year. First, Eric Maynor has a player option on a second year with the team. I know it's only 12 games in but Maynor does not appear to be the answer at the backup point guard position. There's such a noticeable dropoff between him and John Wall. Second, there's that 2014 first round draft pick we gave to the Phoenix Suns in the Okafor-Gortat trade. I hate trading first round draft picks but if it gets us into the playoffs this year, it's probably worth it. If it doesn't, Gortat's likely gone and so is our draft pick at some point.

5. There Are Concentration Lapses

I know basketball is famously a game of runs. More than any other sport mostly due to just the frequency of scoring in the games, there are going to be periods in the game when teams just outscore the other team by an astounding margin. And it's likely going to happen whether you are the winning team or the losing team. Having said that, the Wizards' scoring droughts in some games have been so obvious and noticeable that it has either put them totally out of the game; put the game out of reach quickly; or almost wasted an outstanding effort.

Most noticeable in the first 12 games were the San Antonio Spurs' 16-0 run after the Wizards had battled back to within three in the third quarter; the Oklahoma City Thunder's ten point comeback to force overtime with less than three and a half minutes to play; and the Cleveland Cavaliers' 36-13 run to almost steal the win after the Wizards led by 27. In each case, the Wizards seemed to lose focus on what it was they were supposed to be doing on the court, and they lapsed into lazy, one-on-one hero ball and it cost them at least the Oklahoma City game and it almost took the Cleveland game from them. We haven't won in San Antonio since 1999, so it's pretty difficult for me to argue that unselfish play would have won that game.

I know this team is young to the point where arguably the two best players on the team are 20 and 23 (in Bradley Beal and John Wall) and I also realize neither of those two has had a veteran to mentor and teach them how to play their positions at the NBA level. But they have got to remember to listen to head coach Randy Wittman. I'm sure Randy is reminding them to share the ball and run the offense. They need to do it. It will save Randy's job and may save the season.

6. We Should Be 7-5

I'll end these observations on a hopeful note. In all honesty, this team should have won seven of the first 12, not four of first 12. We held a double digit lead against both Philadelphia and Cleveland in the second half at home and managed to squander both games and let the visitors walk off with a victory. We also had the Thunder dead to rights in Oklahoma City before Nenê picked up his second technical foul and the team lost all focus. There were also no games we won in the first 12 that we should have lost, so the three additional victories we should have is a true number.

In spite of that optimism, however, we didn't win seven of the first dozen games but the three we threw away should serve as a reminder for the team to realize they can achieve a winning record if they put forth 48 minutes of concentrated effort per game. I know that's going to be difficult for this team. Ideally everyone would like a few games where they can mail them in, but it doesn't appear our team is talented enough to do that. 48 minutes guys, not 36, 40 or even 44. 48! Do that every game and we might be OK.

On to the next 72! I feel better than I did last year.

Off Season Priorities

It's conference finals time. My rooting against the teams and players I dislike the most has helped bump the Brookyn Nets, Denver Nuggets and New York Knicks from the postseason so far. I'm still delusionally hopeful that the NBA Finals this year will feature the Indiana Pacers and the San Antonio Spurs despite the current deficit the Pacers face in their Eastern Conference Finals. I like the way Indiana's team is built around a defense first, no star system. In my wildest imaginings, I could see the Wizards resembling that team in the next few years. 

In the meantime, there's been some good news for the Wizards in the form of a top three Lottery pick when the team could have stood still at the eight spot or, God forbid, moved down as far as 11th. That win gives the team a whole lot more options when approaching the off season. It's a lot easier to make deals with a number three overall draft pick than it is with the eighth pick.

When I look over the Wizards roster at the moment, I see some glaring holes that need to be addressed. However, for the first time in years, I feel pretty good about our top five guys under contract, which coincidentally can be fashioned into a credible NBA starting lineup of John Wall and Bradley Beal in the backcourt, Trevor Ariza and Nenê at the forward spots and Emeka Okafor in the middle. I think management has done a good job cobbling together a unit that can score and defend at a playoff caliber level in the NBA.

Beyond the "starting five" listed above, the team is thin. We have some free agents whom we may or may not try to re-sign and a bench of four guys on their rookie contract deals. It's definitely easy to understand how this team finished tied for seventh worst in the NBA last season. Despite that assessment though, we may actually not need to tweak our roster that much to slide into the seventh or eighth spot in the Eastern Conference. Sounds crazy but it might be true. Here's how I view our offseason priorities.

1. Draft The Best Available Player

For the first time in several NBA Drafts, the Wizards are in a position where they don't need to draft someone who has to start next season or even contribute in a major way right away. I am sure between now and draft night both the front office of the Wizards and most folks in the press who cover the team will debate whether the team should draft for need or take the best player available. Here's my message to everyone: the Wizards have needs at every position; select the best available player, even if that player is a guard and has to come off the bench behind John Wall or Bradley Beal for the next four years.

Fortunately, the Wizards this year moved up in draft order by winning the Draft Lottery and hold the third overall selection, rather than the eighth spot based on order of finish. The third overall pick allows the Wizards far more flexibility in making a draft choice and should allow them to not only get a quality player whether or not that player can contribute right away. If I were drafting for need for the Wizards, I'd select a center. The Wizards have young potential at every position except center (I'm putting Seraphin at the four for the purpose of this discussion). But if the right player isn't there, I'm picking the best available. Based on early projections, it appears Nerlens Noel (center), Ben McLemore (guard) and Otto Porter, Jr. (forward) are the top three talents in this year's draft. If that proves to be true, I'd take whichever one of those three wasn't selected in the top two and hope I made the right choice. To me, the draft is a total crap shoot anyway.

2. Re-Sign Martell Webster

The Wizards signed Martell Webster right before the start of the 2012-2013 season as a presumed sixth man at a pretty much bargain price of $1,600,000. Martell turned that opportunity into a season with career highs in points, rebounds, assists and three point field goal percentage while managing to shoot almost 85% from the free throw line. He replaced Trevor Ariza in the starting lineup when Ariza went down with an injury in December and never gave it back. He embraces coach Wittman's game philosophy and also seems to play off other players on the team, and particularly John Wall, very well.

So it looks like Martell has set himself up in a "contract year" to be paid really well or even overpaid. It seems like the Wizards are in a position where they have to pony up some dough to keep him or risk losing him to free agency like we have lost other players in the recent past. If I had a vote, I'd pay Martell. In fact, I'd probably pay him (assuming he would accept it) the full mid-level exception for a period of three years. That would allow us to bring back our starting five from last year plus sixth man Ariza and then start to incorporate other players into the mix, including our first round draft pick and whatever other free agents we retain or sign. And with a three year deal, Martell would be coming off the books in time for the team to throw a boatload of cash at Bradley Beal after his rookie contract expires.

I wonder what the offseason holds for Chris Singleton and his over life size billboard at VC.

3. Figure Out The Seraphin / Booker / Vesely / Singleton Thing

Over the past three seasons, the Wizards have drafted four small or power forwards in Kevin Seraphin, Trevor Booker, Jan Vesely and Chris Singleton. Other than the "starting five" mentioned earlier in this post, these four are the only players currently under contract for the 2013-2014 season. I believe the Wizards drafted so many players to fill potentially one position because they hoped one of the four would naturally rise to the top of the pile and become a regular rotation player (or even a starter) on their rookie deal. That hasn't exactly happened. If you could take Seraphin's offense with Booker's rebounding and defense and Vesely's passing, I think we'd get what I think we intended to get.

So it's probably time to part ways with one or more of this group but which and how? Over the past season and a half, Seraphin has clearly established himself as the most reliable of these four. Towards the end of last season, once he shook off injuries from the first half of the season, Booker emerged as the better of the other three primarily due to his ability to rebound consistently. Trading Vesely and Singleton for someone or some thing of value would be the best thing for the Wizards but to make a trade they need to find a partner willing to take a gamble on one of those two. It may be that we have to trade Booker to get a team to accept one of the other two and hope that whatever we get back is of greater value and that whomever we don't trade can contribute something of real value going forward.

4. Find Some Backcourt Help

During the 2012-2013 season, A.J. Price started 22 games for the Wizards and Garrett Temple started 36. Both guys were thrust into a starting role by injuries to either John Wall or Bradley Beal. I like both A.J. and Garrett as pieces on this team and as players. I love A.J.'s high assist-to-turnover ratio and his ability to play defense. I love Garrett's size and ability to defend both guard spots and toward the end of last season, I actually liked his ability to score in bursts. But if this team is going to succeed beyond maybe squeaking in to the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference, I'm confident when I say that these two guys cannot be our third and fourth guards next year.

If I were running the Wizards, I'd try to re-sign both A.J. and Garrett at the right (i.e minimum) price. I think they both did enough to earn a spot on the team next year. But I'd also go out and find some help to be a first backup at both guard spots. At the point guard, I'd love to find a former starter that had a good contract who is now willing to accept a role for less money backing up John Wall. A guy like Devin Harris would seem to be a good fit. He's coming off a 5 year, $43 million deal and last year was supplanted in the Atlanta Hawks' starting lineup by Jeff Teague. He's still a good point guard and he can defend. If we could wrap up someone like that for a couple of years, I think that would help tremendously.

At the shooting guard first and foremost, we need someone who can score in bunches and I'd even overpay a little or find someone traditionally not thought of as a defender to get that instant offense off the bench. I'm thinking someone like Nate Robinson here. Nate made the veteran minimum with the Chicago Bulls last season but clearly saved some games singlehandedly for that team in the Bulls' playoff run this past spring. If we could wrap up a guy like that for a year or two at a reasonable (less than $2 million per) price, I'd do it. 

5. Fill The Roster With Professional Veterans

During the 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 seasons, after it was clear the team wasn't competing for a playoff spot, the Wizards starting auditioning players from the D-League for a spot on the team. Larry Owens, Shaun Livingston, Cartier Martin, Othyus Jeffers, Mike Harris, Cedric Jackson, Mustafa Shakur and Alonzo Gee all made stops in D.C. during those two seasons. I believe the organization's hope was that one of these players would prove to be a diamond in the rough, and we'd be able to pick up a quality rotation player for very little investment. It didn't work. The Wizards couldn't or wouldn't afford to sign Shaun Livingston, who proved to be the most effective in his time in Washington, and they missed out on Alonzo Gee, who last season started all 82 games for the Cleveland Cavaliers.

During the off season last year, the Wizards traded Rashard Lewis and his $22 million plus salary to the New Orleans Hornets for Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza. While it first looked like the trade may have been a mistake because we took back another season's worth of salary when Lewis' expiring deal would have given us cap flexibility this summer, the veteran presence of Okafor and Ariza helped the team immeasurably. Both Emeka and Trevor are smart professionals and both understood and supported the plan to make this team into a playoff contender. Sure they cost more than someone on a rookie contract or a D-League call up, but their maturity and  experience was essential in allowing other players on the team to weather tougher times last season. When it comes to filling the rest of our 2013-2014 roster, I'd love to see the Wizards invest in high character, veteran players who provide leadership on the practice court, from the bench and in game situations in spot duty.

So that's how I see the Wizards' priorities for the 2013 off season. I'm looking forward to the NBA Draft on June 27 and the start of free agency three days later. Hopefully we can pull together something between now and the start of next season that will allow a playoff appearance in 2014.

Will the future ever get here for Dippin' Dots??

My Wizards Wish List

We are now about four weeks beyond the end of the Wizards 2012-2013 campaign and the offseason is starting to hit me a little harder. The first round of the Wizards-less 2013 NBA Playoffs is over and I'm now well into watching second round action at nights and on weekends when I can stomach it. Former Wizards knuckleheads JaVale McGee and Andray Blatche and the rest of their Denver Nuggets and Brooklyn Nets teammates are at home watching hoops just like me so I feel pretty good about that. Hating, I know...whatever!

In between rooting against the Miami Heat and New York Knicks in the second round, I'm starting to imagine a 2013-2014 season for the Wizards that ends in a playoff appearance (not ready to ask for a run yet; just an appearance would be a start). If I had the power or ability to change some things about our team, I'd start with three things: improve our field goal percentage, drop our turnovers and have us rebound at the offensive end of the court a little better. Unfortunately, I have neither the power nor the ability and each of these improvements is going to take time and effort across the entire team. No one player is going to be able to affect these changes on the team by himself.

But I do have a small wish list of individual changes I'd like to see our guys make over the summer. Again, I have neither the power or the ability to make these adjustments to our players' games but I believe they are changes that each can make on his own without affecting team play or the performance of the individual in other areas. If nothing else, it makes me feel better to put this stuff down.

Did Vesely leave his free throw shot in Europe?

1. Jan Vesely: Improved Free Throw Shooting

There are so many things about the game of basketball that Jan Vesely does well that go completely unappreciated. He passes well (especially to start the fast break); runs the floor well; finishes in transition better than most everyone; can play defense well on his man or off the ball; and studies the game and shows coachability. But there are undoubtedly two areas of his game that are at best poor and which have become lightning rods for criticism of his game: shooting from the field and free throw shooting.

During the 2012-2013 season, Vesely's field goal percentage was 50.0%. He was the only Wizard to hit half of his shots from the field. But his percentage was only so high because most of his opportunities were dunks and, if he can do nothing else, Vesely can finish at the rim strong. It was his shots away from the basket that had fans cringing each time he hoisted one up.

But I'd take gradual improvement in his away-from-the-basket field goal percentage if he could fix his free throw shooting. His free throw percentage last season was a miserable 30.8%. That represents an incredible drop of 22.4 percentage points from his rookie year. It's a nightmare each time he gets fouled in a shooting situation. The best you can realistically hope for is that he hits 1 of 2 when he steps to the line and that is just not good enough. It's killing our chances to score easy points and he absolutely can't play in crunch time at all.

During his rookie year, there were stories about Vesely having to wear a special template during free throw shooting practice to get him to space his fingers properly. But then at the end of this past season, A.J. Price suggested that Vesely's struggles from the charity stripe might be more mental than anything else and that the pressure of all those people watching and knowing he's going to fail are affecting him more than anything else. 

So here's my offer to Ves. Come back from Europe early this summer; I'll take a couple of weeks off work and get some people assembled every day to watch you free throw shooting on the practice court; and we'll heckle the crap out of you while you practice. We'll tell you how bad you are; insult your manhood and your family; and whatever else you need us to do to get you concentrating on putting the ball through the hoop and not on the pressure of the situation. I want Vesely to succeed and I appreciate the little things he does on the court. But if he can't raise his free throw percentage, he's going to be done in the NBA when his rookie contract expires.

2. Kevin Seraphin: More Physical Play

I love Kevin Seraphin. I love his approach to the game and improving his play. I love that he wants to be coached by Randy Wittman. And I love his use of social media to let fans into his life and that he clearly loves being a celebrity and loves interfacing with his fans. At the beginning of last season he was hands down my favorite Wizard (pre-Martell Webster, that is). And because I love Kevin Seraphin, I can say this: Kevin is a finesse player. And he shouldn't be.

The Wizards' media guide lists Kevin at 6'-9" and 275 pounds. He is a little bit of a throwback big man, preferring to play with his back to the basket rather than shooting from the perimeter. He's a big guy with a wide butt and he should be tough to move. Former teammate Kirk Hinrich named Kevin as the person who set the toughest screens when the two played together during the 2010-2011 season.

But despite improvements in his post game, Kevin still plays with too much finesse. He should be throwing his weight around and getting to the hoop a lot more than he does. This lack of aggression is reflected in last season's 46.1% field goal percentage and 9.6 rebounds per 48 minutes. For perspective, DaAndre Jordan led the league in field goal percentage at 64.3% and Reggie Evans led in rebounding per 48 minutes at 21.7. Kevin's a decent free throw shooter at a tad below 70%. If he can take it inside more without turning it over, I have to believe his field goal percentage, rebounding rate and number of trips to the foul line will improve. Get more aggressive, Kevin!!

I'm not looking for Superman, just a little more physicality.

3. John Wall: Stop Jumping and Passing

The 2012-2013 season was a validation season of sorts for John Wall. He spent the first 33 games of the season in street clothes due to a knee injury during which time he was written off by most of the league as either a forgotten man or a first overall pick draft bust. But when he started playing, the Wizards started winning regularly (albeit mostly at home). He proved himself a difference maker in the team game and, once he got his legs under him, he showed the improvement in his own jump shot, scoring an astounding 47 points against the Memphis Grizzlies on March 25.

John still has a long way to go in a number of phases of the game. He's started slowing down at the rim enabling him to score more regularly but he could improve his fast break conversion percentages; he still turns the ball over far too regularly for an elite point guard; and he is still an emotional, moody guy in games which sometimes leads to too much one on one play and, in its worst manifestation, game ejections like the one he had at Golden State the game before he lit up the Grizzlies for 47. I believe John will work these kinks out and become an elite point guard in the NBA. Remember, he's only 22 years old despite his three years of experience.

But the one small adjustment I'd love to see John make right away is not leaving his feet before passing. If there were a short list of basketball no-no's, jumping in the air before passing would have to be pretty high up that list. Leaving your feet compromises your ability to make sound decisions. Once you jump in the air there are three possible outcomes: shoot, pass or turn the ball over. I understand John may know exactly where he wants to throw the ball before he jumps but defensive adjustments may change his mind and once in the air, he has little choice but to let the ball go. To me this is important because I really think one of the big problems with the Wizards' offense is turnovers and this behavior has to lead to more turnovers. Keep your feet, John and make sound decisions from the ground.

4. Trevor Booker: Rebound With Two Hands

During the 2012-2013 season, coach Randy Wittman settled into a rotation where Jan Vesely, Chris Singleton and Trevor Booker took turns being the team's reserve power forward. It appeared to me as a fan that coach played Singleton as the guy for a while until his performance suffered, then he would switch to Vesely and then to Booker before just starting over with Singleton again. Towards the end of the season, though, Book got more than his fair share of playing time based on his production on the court.

Booker has one more year of NBA experience than Vesely and Singleton and is clearly the superior rebounder of that trio. He posted an average of 5.0 rebounds per game in about 18.5 minutes average game time. That rate puts him with more than 30% higher than either Ves or Singleton if those two had spent as much time on the court in an average game as Book.

But there is one thing I'd like to see improved in his rebounding. Book has a tendency to rebound the ball with one hand or sometimes even one arm. He rebounds this way despite there being no opponent holding his other arm or even any where in the vicinity. Every so often, a rebound gets away from him, which results in a turnover. This is not a big issue game after game, but every turnover adds up, especially for a team that has to work on getting their turnover number down. God gave you two hands for a reason, Trevor. In your case, it might just be to grab the ball with two hands and secure it. Use them! Please.

5. Nenê: More Passion

At the 2011-2012 trade deadline, the Wizards sent away perennial knucklehead JaVale McGee and his immense potentially never fulfilled potential in exchange for Nenê. The trade instantly reset the franchise's moral compass and signaled that management was serious about building a winning team around a team first concept. JaVale McGee is serious about his eating cinnamon and creating cartoon alter egos; Nenê is serious about making his team better and winning basketball games.

Nenê is so good at all phases of the game. He can score, rebound, defend and is possibly the best passer on our team. He makes everyone on the court better and makes the team way better. And so it's difficult for me to criticize any aspect of Nenê's game. But I do have one wish: I wish he would be more passionate about playing. And that wish may be totally unfair.

During the 2012-2013 season, Nenê sat out games for a variety of reasons, mostly due to plantar fasciatis, and at the end of the season there were reports of him considering retirement instead of playing in pain. I have no real idea how much pain Nenê plays through and I probably shouldn't question his toughness in any way but it seems to me that there are a lot of guys playing in the NBA in way more pain than Nenê does. I just have to look at Joakim Noah playing for the Bulls in the first round of this year's playoffs. Noah could barely drag his body up and down the court some possessions but he was out there battling.

The Washington press criticizes the McGee-Nenê trade every so often because the skinny on Nenê is that he gets hurt regularly, which isn't really true all the time. But he does sit a lot and the first report of him sitting the last few games on last season came from Nenê himself and not from the team which leads me to wonder is Nenê hurt regularly (even though he's not) because he's actually hurt or because he has a low threshold for pain. I guess I'll never know but I'd love him to suck it up more and play more. No doubt we are way better with him on the court.

I know none of these guys will ever read this and I really honestly don't want them making adjustments to their games based on fan input. But that's my Wizards wish list for this summer. Maybe I'll go bug them about it during Summer League.

Up Next: Off Season Priorities

Wizards Basketball Card Optimism

Now that I have a blog mostly about basketball (although it's really about me), I have an excuse to do stuff I couldn't in all good conscience do before, like buy basketball cards. I'm currently tracking down the Wizards players in the sixth of at least 12 basketball card series that Panini America, the officially licensed card manufacturer of the NBA, is producing this season. Who knew there was such a market for this stuff? There are cards which sell on the secondary market for over $2,000. Admittedly, there are some which are absolutely gorgeous but paying that much for a 3" by 4" piece of cardboard is insane! I'm not spending anywhere near that much money on these things; I may be obsessed and waste way too much time and money on this team but I'm not THAT stupid!

Just like the baseball and football cards I collected as a kid, the fronts of the cards show an image of the players and the backs of the cards contain stats as well as some random facts or future projections. I don't know who at Panini America writes the stuff on the backs of the cards, but some of it is pretty ironic with the Wizards off to a 4-23 start this season. In fact, you could make the case that some of it is just downright deluded. I thought I'd share some of my favorites. Or perhaps considering the context, my least favorites.

Hoops Card No. 175, Nenê

"Nenê has only hit the court 11 times with the Wizards, who acquired him from Denver via a trade. Assuming those 11 games were a preview of how it will fare with the Brazilian in 2012-13, Washington could be in for a gripping season." 

Gripping is probably a good word to describe our season so far, but I'm sure it's not what the author of the quote above quite had in mind. It's hard for me to pick on Nenê because he's far and away the best player on our team. There's no question we are a way better team with him on the court than on the bench.

Hoops Card No. 176, Kevin Seraphin
"Only 22 years old and in his second NBA season, Seraphin had an amazing closing kick to the 2011-12 season. He started all 15 of the Wizards' games and averaged 15.5 points and 7.0 rebounds while putting the ball through the net 53 percent of the time. April may have been his launching point."

Well, maybe not. While Kevin started the season strong, he's tailed off. He's currently averaging 10.7 points and 5.4 rebounds, which are both career highs, but his field goal percentage has dipped from last year to 45.1 percent. He needs to get better at recognizing double teams. Once he does that, I'm hopeful we'll see great things.

Hoops Draft Night Card No. 3, Bradley Beal
"There's not a whole lot this guy can't do on the basketball court. Beal is a great 3-point shooter, first and foremost."

Some nights this season have clearly been a struggle for Bradley as he gets used to being in the NBA on a bad team. But there's no question we are still waiting for "greatness" from the three point line: Bradley ranks 131st in the NBA from downtown and Martell Webster, A.J. Price and Jordan Crawford are shooting better from that range on our team.

Prestige Card No. 109, Emeka Okafor

"Okafor has been good for a double-double just about every night for his eight-year career."

Well, not this year. Okafor is averaging 7.5 points and 6.5 rebounds this season and has tallied a double-double in only two games. It's clearly the worst statistical season of his career. What is it about Washington that does that to people?

Prestige Card No. 178, Jan Vesely

"His popularity is on the rise in Washington."

I have no facts to dispute this claim, but it's not. It's just not. Sorry. And I like Ves a lot. I hope it all turns around when Wall returns.

Prestige Card No. 193, Shelvin Mack

"He was steady for Washington all season long, earning high marks from his coaches."

Not disputing the steady claim here but I doubt the high marks from the coaches considering we cut Shelvin during training camp. But...since we just re-signed him after firing his replacement (Jannero Pargo) and his replacement's replacement (Shaun Livingston), maybe he should have been on the team all along. Welcome back, Shelvin!

Totally Certified Card No. 8, Trevor Ariza

"After the club acquired him from the Hornets in the offseason, Ariza told The Washington Post, 'I definitely believe this can be a playoff team.'"

Well, believe away, Trevor. It's not going to be in 2012-13. The Wizards currently have the worst record in the NBA and it's not really that close. Admittedly, we are only 9-1/2 games out of the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference but it looks bleak, especially since we have only won four games so far. I believe the team deviated from the rebuild plan when trading for Okafor and Ariza in the hopes those two would get us over the hump. Doesn't look that way so far.

Totally Certified Card No. 28, Trevor Booker

"In his first two seasons since leaving Clemson, Booker has developed into a potentially dominant force on the glass for the Wizards."

I'm afraid I'm going to have to take issue with this whole statement. While Book has had some nice games, he's far from a "dominant force" or even a potential one. In his first two years, he averaged 3.9 and 6.5 rebounds per game but this year has dipped to 5.6 while only playing in nine of our first 27 games.

Totally Certified Card No. 158, Emeka Okafor

"After three seasons with the Hornets, Okafor now joins a young Wizards team with a strong nucleus that is looking to make a big jump in 2012-13."

We're still looking to make that jump. So far, our winning percentage has dropped from .303 last year to .148 this year. Even though I can feel good about last night's win over Orlando,  there is still a long way to go.

Totally Certified Card No. 236, Jan Vesely

"With Vesely, former No. 1 overall pick John Wall, and 2012 first rounder Bradley Beal, Washington has the makings of a high-speed, high scoring team this year."

I know this is unfair because Wall hasn't played a single minute yet, but "high scoring" absolutely positively cannot be used to describe the Wizards this year. The team is dead last in scoring  in the NBA this year at 89.2 points per game, a full 2.2 points per game behind the next highest (or should it be lowest?) team. We are also on track to set a franchise mark for fewest points per game in a season.

My friend Mike asked me a couple of weeks ago why every other team seems to get better and the Wizards don't. I don't have a good answer to that question. No doubt injuries have killed the Wizards in the first third of the season, probably making anything we do in the rest of the season irrelevant. And it's difficult to judge based on what happened last year, but most of our guys are clearly struggling. I'd be a much happier guy if just some of the stuff above were true and believe me, I really really want it to be true. Maybe when John Wall finally plays this year. Or maybe next year, right?