We're Only 3-1/2 Games Back

After the loss to the worst-team-in-the-NBA Cleveland Cavaliers last night (for the second time this season by the way), I'm very glass half empty on the Wizards right now. This post is for all the Wizards fans out there who are still clinging to playoff hope. I'm here today to mercilessly crush your spirit. And I'm going to do it with math.

I looked at the NBA standings this morning and noted the Wizards are just 3-1/2 games back of the Charlotte Hornets for the eight seed and like I've said I don't know how many times in years past I thought "Hey, we're only a few games out of the playoffs. That much ground is going to be easy to make up the rest of the way. All we need is Charlotte to lose four more games than us and we'll be in. Heck, maybe we even get the seven seed and take the Division from Miami."

So...to address all that: yes we are, no it won't, that won't happen and there's no way. Here's why.

Right now the Charlotte Hornets are 24-25. If they keep performing at that level they will win 40 games. I can totally see the eight seed in the East having a losing record so I'm on board with Charlotte making the playoffs with a 40-42 record.

The Washington Wizards currently sport a 21-29 record. There are 32 games left on their schedule. To get to 40 wins, they will need to go 19-13 the rest of the way. What universe does anyone see this Wizards team going 19-13 in? Not me. Not this year. Sure, they have more home games left than roadies so that helps but if they execute at the same win percentage home and away they will win 10.6 more home games and 3.46 more road games. Let's round up on both and call it 11 and 4 shall we? That's still only 15 wins. They need 19. Think there's no way the Wiz can't improve on their current 6-20 road win pace? They lost to Cleveland last night. That should kill that one.

Too much of a downer so far? Need some hope? I won't give you any. Let's say Charlotte fails. Let's say the Wizards get 15 more wins and end up 36-44 and Charlotte somehow goes 8-19 the rest of the way. Can that happen? Sure. Will it? At this point in the season? Probably not. What's going to cause Charlotte's performance to crater? Also remember the Detroit Pistons are still ahead of the Wizards. Even if Charlotte bottoms out, we'd still have to pass Detroit also.

Can turnarounds happen mid-season? Sure. The Brooklyn Nets started out 8-18 this season and they've gone 20-6 since. But this late in the season? And this Wizards team? Not likely. I Tweeted last night that if the Wizards lost to the Cavs last night, the playoff dream was dead. I'm sticking by that prediction. It's up to this team to prove me wrong.

And yes, I know the Cavs don't have the worst record in the NBA anymore. Thank the Wiz for that. The New York Knicks (who the Wizards just beat by 1 with 0.4 seconds left in the game) hold that honor now. I'm sticking by my Tweet.

Wiz don’t win this #WizCavs game and they aren’t making the playoffs. Not sure they are making it anyway and I’m not sure it would be a bad thing. Just saying they won’t make it with a loss here.

— Jonathan Hopwood (@jonathanhopwood) January 30, 2019

No More Agent Zero?

This past weekend the Washington Wizards signed guard Gary Payton II (not Jr.; his brother is Gary Payton Jr.) to a 10 day contract. It's common for teams to do that in the second half of the season. If Payton works out for the Wizards then that's great; maybe he'll get another 10 days with the team before the front office needs to make a decision if he sticks around the rest of the season. If he doesn't pan out, that's probably fine too.

Payton's basketball future is not why I'm writing about him. I'm writing about him because according to Chase Hughes of NBC Sports Washington, Payton has favored two numbers in his playing career: 23 and zero. Figuring he wouldn't be able to follow Michael Jordan, he decided against 23 but he did make a request for the number zero and was told it was off limits. Of course, zero was the number worn by Gilbert Arenas from 2004 to 2010 (he wore number 9 in his last partial season in D.C.) and Gil's time in Washington, shall we say, ended in a manner that some folks would rather forget. Particularly ownership.

For me, the end of Gil's tenure in a Wizards uniform was devastating because his career was cut short by an injury that he just couldn't recover from. Sure, sure, I know there was the whole guns in the locker room thing with Javaris Crittenton and the subsequent felony conviction but the real end of Arenas' career happened the moment Gerald Wallace wrecked Gilbert's knee in the first quarter of a Wizards-Bobcats game. That injury and all the ill-advised behavior that followed it does not for me erase the fact that Gil was probably the most exciting player to ever don a Wizards jersey. 

Yep, you read that right.

There's never been anyone before or after on the Wizards that could score the way Gil did. I would argue during the 2006-2007 season he was one of the best five players in the league. People were talking about a Kobe-Gil trade and were saying the Wizards should say no. He still holds the franchise record for points in a single game and is the only Wizard (I said Wizard, not Bullet) to make multiple All-NBA teams. One second and two thirds, if you must know. He's also the inspiration for this blog and this blog's title. There has not been a player in Washington in my 19 years as a season ticket holder like Gilbert Arenas and I mean that in the best, most complimentary way towards Gil. 

So about that number thing...

Usually franchises refuse number requests from players because they intend to retire the number requested. The Wizards have not necessarily followed that pattern in the past (they allowed DeJuan Blair to wear Phil Chenier's number 45 for the 29 games he played for the Wizards) and I don't think it's what they are doing here. It's also not the first time the issue of someone wearing number zero has come up. When Drew Gooden joined the team for his second stint, he commented on his consideration of wearing zero, which was a number he had worn in prior stops, as follows:

"They said I got to let zero cool off for a second."

So, if the Wizards aren't getting ready to raise Agent Zero's number zero jersey to the rafters, they must be exiling him and his number (the zero one, not the 9 one) from the franchise books forever, right? Right? I can't see it any other way.

If this is true, this is not entirely a surprise to me. This past summer, Capital One Arena was closed for a significant remodel; part of that renovation involved installation of new signage outside the 100 and 400 level seating sections featuring photographs representing significant events in the building's history as well as milestones in Wizards, Bullets, Mystics and Capitals history (and Valor history, I guess). 

Think there is anything celebrating Gilbert Arenas' time in a Wizards uniform? Not a one. And it's not just Gil. There's no mention at all of the mid-aughts at all. In case you forgot, that's the Wiz team that made four consecutive playoff appearances and had the best record in the Conference at the All-Star break one year. It's like basketball history in Washington consisted of the Bullets and then the John Wall era Wizards and nothing else. And yes, there is plenty celebrating the Bullets despite the fact they never played in the building. 56 new signs celebrating the building; not one features Gilbert Arenas.

Gilbert is also, for some reason, not a member of the Bullets / Wizards Alumni, a group created to connect past players to the current team. It's a great idea implemented after Ted Leonsis took over the franchise in full. But it's missing some parts, notably three-time All-Star Gilbert Arenas. Not all the players who were on those 2004-2008 playoff teams that Gil was a part of (admittedly, he was not much of a part of the last one) are absent from the alumni roster. Antawn Jamison is on there. So is Caron Butler and Larry Hughes. Oh, and don't forget about Awvee Storey.

Yep, that's right, Awvee Storey, who played in 25 games in his Wizards career and who scored fewer points (42) than Gilbert scored against the Lakers in one game in December 2006, is in the Alumni Association. But Gilbert is not. Actually come to think of it, Storey scored fewer than Gil scored against Phoenix in December 2006 also. And against Utah on MLK Day in 2007. And...well maybe a few other times too. I'm not sure how you get into the Bullets / Wizards Alumni club but I'm sure it has to be with the consent of the team. Who knows, maybe the team has reached out to Gilbert and he said no. On the other hand, maybe not.

Awvee Storey's bio on the Bullets / Wizards Alumni page.

I still see plenty of Gilbert Arenas jerseys at Wizards home games, even with the team loaded up with max players John Wall, Bradley Beal and Otto Porter, none of whom brings what Gil brought to the team. Yes, a couple of years ago, I ranked John Wall as the greatest Wizard ever; part of that evaluation considers the length of time each served with the team. John's body of work is better but he was never (and likely will never be) the player Gilbert was at his best.

I also sense as time passes away from the end of Gil's time with the team, most fans remember the times Agent Zero had that hibachi lit on the court with nothing but fond memories. If the current team had managed to make an NBA Finals or even compete in the Eastern Conference Finals maybe it wouldn't be that way. But they haven't so I see more and more Wizards fans clinging to the Arenas years more and more. And I don't think it's inappropriate. When he was at his best, nobody could touch Gil.

I may be all wrong here but I don't think that I am. If the team is truly trying to erase Gilbert from the franchise books by denying anyone the use of his number zero, maybe they are actually doing the exact opposite. But if they are just being spiteful about what they see as embarrassing and counterproductive behavior, I think they should move on and embrace Gil's legacy and Gil as a person. Let someone wear the number. Or retire it. 

I can't imagine I'm ever going to see Gilbert at Capital One Arena ever again like we see past players some nights in the building. But if Gil's ever inclined to come back, he can sit next to me any night and we can talk about how good those years last decade were. He'll always be Agent Zero to me and his swag will always be phenomenal in those stories.

Long Way To Go

Today is the annual Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday. As there are most years on this holiday (which is sadly not a holiday for everyone) there are a series of afternoon NBA games to mark the occasion and cause us to reflect at least hopefully a little bit about Dr. King's legacy. And hopefully also the lengths we still have to go in a country that promises equal rights for all. 

Since I've been writing this blog, I've featured a post dedicated to Dr. King or the Civil Rights Movement each year the Washington Wizards have hosted a home game on this date. I've tried to make an effort to visit relevant sites so I can write in the first person about how being in the places where these events happened made me feel, although honestly the logic behind someone white writing about how sites where racial injustice occurred is a little laughable I know. I figure better to do it anyway than just ignore it.

My intent this year was to write something about the Memphis Sanitation Workers' Strike of 1968, the event that led Dr. King to be in that city the day he was assassinated. Yes, I know I wrote about the assassination last year so that would make two consecutive posts about Memphis on this holiday day. 

As a civil rights event, the Sanitation Workers' Strike lacks the shock factor of women and children being beaten by policemen like they were in Selma, Alabama or school kids being subjected to high pressure water attacks like they were in Birmingham in the same state. Don't get me wrong, there was plenty of unprovoked police on non-violent protesters violence in Memphis; it just didn't affect the nation's consciousness the same way events in Selma or Birmingham did.

So I'm not writing that post. Instead, I'm saying as far as we think we have come as a country with race relations, we really haven't come very far at all. Sure, the law theoretically guarantees equal rights for all regardless of race. But there is still a huge problem here. If you need to look for any evidence of the work still left to be done, look no further than last Friday and Kentucky's own Covington Catholic High School.

In case you missed it, or in case you've been completely ignoring Twitter for the entire weekend, there were a few marches down on the National Mall last Friday. Two of these were the March for Life, a protest I guess against the fact that the United States legally allows safe abortions like pretty much every other modern country on the planet, and the Indigenous Peoples March, an event designed to bring attention to injustice against native Americans in our home of the free and land of the brave.

Somehow, parts of these two marches came together and ended up with a bunch of students from the all-male Catholic high school (who somehow have strong opinions at their young age about women having the right to abortions) wearing Make America Great Again hats taunting Nathan Phillips, an Omaha elder and Vietnam veteran, with chants about building a wall to keep immigrants out of our country.

I do not know the facts that led to this encounter, although I've read a number of varying accounts on the internet. I'm not sure it really matters that much to what I'm about to say but the idea of some teenagers from some private school in middle America mocking someone whose family has been on this land far longer than their families have with chants about stopping immigration is ludicrous. Also, no adults with these kids, who I assume are integral to their education about co-existing with other people who don't share the same skin color and privilege, spoke up and stopped this nonsense.

You think we've solved racial inequality in this country? Start by doing your own part next time you see something like that happening in front of you. And then remember it's the tip of the iceberg. We are challenged with this issue on a daily basis. 

During the Sanitation Workers' Strike in 1968 in Memphis, protesters carried and wore signs that read "I AM A MAN!" to affirm that the participants in the march in the late 1960 should be treated as men and not boys, which was (and still is I imagine in some places and for some people) a derogatory term leveled towards African-American men. The image at the top of this post is from a mural on Memphis' main street; the image at the bottom is from inside the National Civil Rights Museum. I imagine keeping this idea in mind would serve everyone well who ever gets into the kind of confrontation that happened on the National Mall on Friday.

At 2 p.m. today I'll be rooting for Bradley Beal and the Wizards to take down the Detroit Pistons and move into ninth place in the Eastern Conference. I also hope everyone in Capital One Arena pays attention to every message honoring Dr. King during the game. Go Wizards! I'll be back next year with a better post. I promise.

Why Not Jamison?

Last month, the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame released its list of eligible candidates for the 2019 enshrinement class. The list features men and women players and coaches in addition to early African-American pioneers and other contributors such as writers, broadcasters and referees. 

By all accounts, this year's list of NBA players eligible for election into the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame is thin. Like really thin. Like someone who maybe wouldn't make it into the Hall in a normal year might make it in just because there's nobody else to elect. Maybe so thin that two or even three of those types of players might make it in.

Last year's class was pretty darned good. Steve Nash and Jason Kidd headlined the NBA players version of the 2018 class with Ray Allen, Grant Hill and Maurice Cheeks joining the two headliners as maybe less automatic choices (although Allen was in his first year of eligibility just like Nash and Kidd). Next year's class is strong: Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett. If you are a fringe candidate, this is the year to get in. 

So who is among the players who might squeak in this year? How about Marcus Camby? Or Richard Hamilton? Or even Dale Ellis? Maybe Ben Wallace? What about Chauncey Billups or Mark Aguirre? Yep, all those folks are on the Hall's list this year. 

One name not on the list is Antawn Jamison. I'm asking why not? Did all those guys really have better careers than Jamison? I say no. I say AJ got snubbed here.

Now, before we go getting upset about Marcus Camby giving an enshrinement speech this September, there are other former finalists on the list (this list is not a list of finalists; that reduced list gets announced on All-Star weekend) who are more likely to make the Hall than any of the name written a couple of paragraphs ago. I could argue that Jamison is maybe more likely to make it in than some of those guys and I will. Read on.

When looking for serious contenders for the Hall this year, I think we have to look at four former finalists: Chris Webber, Sidney Moncrief, Tim Hardaway and Kevin Johnson. For me, Webber is in. Maybe I'm biased because he and I attended the same University but he was a five time All-Star, a five time All-NBA player, the Rookie of the Year and the best player on a Sacramento Kings team that should have made the Finals but didn't in a place where no team really before or after C-Webb in recent memory was any damn good. I say this is Webber's year.

I'm also not sure why Sidney Moncrief isn't already in the Hall of Fame. Like Webber, Moncrief was a five time All-Star and a five time All-NBA player during his time in Milwaukee. He also made the NBA All-Defense team five times (including the first time four times) and was voted the Defensive Player of the Year twice. How is that not a Hall of Fame resume?

As far as All-Star appearances and All-NBA appearances go, Webber and Moncrief kill Jamison, who had zero All-NBA nods and just two All-Star appearances. They also boast similar college accomplishments with Webber taking Michigan to two NCAA Final Four appearances like Jamison and Moncrief taking Arkansas there once in 1978. Who cares about college? Remember it's the Basketball Hall of Fame, not the Pro Basketball Hall of Fame. Jamison won the Naismith and Wooden Awards as the most outstanding player in his final year at North Carolina, something Webber and Moncrief did not do, for what that's worth.

Hardaway and Johnson do not have the colleges resumes of Webber, Moncrief or Jamison. They do probably have more accomplished NBA careers. Both earned five All-NBA team appearances and made more All-Star games than AJ. Johnson also made an NBA Finals appearance with the Phoenix Suns in 1993. Neither, though, has a Sixth Man Award (Jamison does) and both have baggage, Johnson having been accused of sexual misconduct in his capacity of mayor of Sacramento and Hardaway having declared on radio "I hate gay people" in 2007. What do these have to do with their impact on the game of basketball? Absolutely nothing. But they may keep both out of the Hall.

So...about those other guys listed above.

Marcus Camby: NBA Defensive Player of the Year; zero All-Star appearances; got the University of Massachusetts to the Final Four.

Richard Hamilton: NBA Champion; 3x All-Star; NCAA Champion.

Dale Ellis: 1x All-Star, 1x All-NBA Third Team; Most Improved Player.

Ben Wallace: NBA Champion; 4x All-Star; 5x All-NBA; 4x Defensive Player of the Year.

Chauncey Billups: NBA Champion; 4x All-Star; 3x All-NBA.

Mark Aguirre: 2x NBA Champion; 3x All-Star; Naismith College Player of the Year.

How is Jamison, with his college resume and his two All-Star appearances and his Sixth Man of the Year not a better candidate than all of these guys. Sure, everyone except Camby and Ellis (I mean how is AJ not on the list before those two?) has more All-Star appearances but I say all of these guys and Kevin Johnson and Tim Hardaway don't deserve greater consideration than Antawn Jamison for two reasons.

First, All-Star appearances are deceiving as an honor because they are often bestowed upon players who play on successful teams. Think Chauncey Billups or Ben Wallace would have made the All-Star team multiple times if they had played for the early 2000s Atlanta Hawks? Or Johnson's three appearances weren't helped by the Suns making the playoffs for 12 straight years? Go down the list and with the exception of Camby and Ellis you'll find team success. Team success leads to All-Star appearances. Jamison made the playoffs seven years but only once on three of those teams. In his four playoff years with the Wizards, he was an All-Star twice.

Second, nobody that I've argued for or against in this post (including Webber and Moncrief) has scored as many points as Antawn Jamison. Everyone eligible for the Hall of Fame who has scored as many points (20,042) as AJ is in the Hall of Fame except for Tom Chambers and Chambers only scored seven more total points than Jamison. I realize points are not the only responsibility of an NBA player but they count for something in a big way. They likely made the difference a guy like Mitch Richmond and he only scored about 450 more than Antawn.

I get that Antawn is not a sure fire Hall of Famer. But does he deserve to be on the list this year given some of the guys on the ballot? I think so. And if the court of public opinion went against Johnson and Hardaway...who knows? But at the very least, he deserves some consideration. There's one thing for sure and that's he's not making it next year. No way. Even if he makes the ballot.

No Excuses

Right before the Charlotte game at the end of December, rumors leaked out that John Wall was considering season-ending surgery on his heel, which had apparently been bothering him for some time. Before the game was over, the Wizards had confirmed the rumor and the team faced the certainty of being without their starting point guard for the rest of the 2018-2019 season. Considering the team's current 15-23 record; come and go injuries to Wall, Otto Porter, Keef Morris and Dwight Howard; and their performance season-to-date, this season is over. I know, I know, there are fans out there looking at the standings and saying "hey, we are only three games out of eighth place." Sorry to be glass half full but trust me, it's over.

Now what? Change has to be coming, right? There's no way this team stands pat without making some major moves, right? Let's take a look at the Wizards' future with very, very, very simple salary cap math.

HAD to find a way to use this pic sometime this year.

Next Year's Roster (Right Now)

If there's no change in the Wizards roster between now and the start of the next NBA season, the Wizards will have five players under contract: John Wall, Otto Porter, Bradley Beal, Ian Mahinmi and Troy Brown. The combined salaries of those five players will be a shade over $111.7 million. With Dwight Howard having a $5.6 million player option on his current contract (why...), let's assume he picks that up (I mean, why wouldn't he?) and ticks the Wiz payroll up to $117.3 million.

The salary cap next year is projected by the NBA to be $109 million and the luxury tax line will be $23 million higher at a total of $132 million. Let's assume Ted Leonsis is willing to exceed the salary cap but not the luxury tax (I'm basing that on current behavior where the team is trying to shave dollars around the margins this season). That means with no serious changes to the roster, the team will have a little less than $15 million to fill eight roster spots, since the NBA won't let a team carry fewer than 14 players. That amount of money won't be enough to put a competitive roster around our six players.

What does this mean? To me, it means one or more of these six has to move without taking an equivalent salary commitment back for next year. Plain and simple, that's it. If we don't move Wall, Porter, Beal or Mahinmi, we will not be competitive next year. Maybe there's a shot at getting there the year after with the luxury tax line being raised to $143 million and no Mahinmi or Howard. But next year? No way! A trade or some other move (like waiving using the stretch provision which allows the cap hit to be spread over several years) has to be coming. Has to be!

Key Restricted Free Agents

In my book, the Wizards have three key free agents going into this offseason: Thomas Bryant, Sam Dekker and Tomas Satoransky. The great thing about the Wizards situation is they can exceed the salary cap to re-sign these players. The bad thing about the Wizards situation is that they won't, because signing all three will mean exceeding the luxury tax threshold. Heck, signing two might mean exceeding the luxury tax line and there would still only be eight players on the roster. 

If it were me, I'd be looking to re-sign at least two of these guys and at this point, I'd probably prioritize Bryant and Satoransky over Dekker, even though I think Dekker's game is solid and will only likely get better for the next few years at least. All of these three can be solid rotation players or starters for the Wizards for the next few years. 

I'm assuming the Wizards will wait to see what kind of interest these three draw on the open market before making an offer since the team will be able to match any offer presented by another team. But bottom line...I think there's value in all three of these guys and realistically, the team will still need to move one or more of Wall, Porter, Beal or Mahinmi to afford to retain even one of these guys.

Everyone Else: Guys Who Can Help a Contender

So the Wizards are in salary cap hell for next year at least without some kind of major move but they do have other folks on the roster right now. Let's assume for the purposes of this post that the rest (and by that I mean Trevor Ariza, Markieff Morris, Jeff Green, Chasson Randle and Ron Baker) are not in the Wizards' long term plans. And if they are not and the season is truly lost (as I think it is) then if the Wiz can get some value for these players, then they should. I mean if they like it that much in Washington they can always come back next year, albeit with maybe not as much salary flexibility. If they don't, they are gone anyway and the Wizards won't have anything to say about it.

If I were the Wizards, I'd be looking to move Ariza, Morris or Green and I'd be looking to do it with a seller's market mentality, meaning cap relief via cheaper contracts isn't the only thing I'd want back in return. I get that maybe the rest of the league doesn't view the Wizards as playing in a seller's market but if another team wants Ariza, Morris or Green without returning a first round draft pick or a young player on a rookie deal then I'd think we'd have to insist on them taking either Porter or Mahinmi for a series of expiring contracts. I know I'm making it sound easier than it is but if there's no substantial relief and there's no trading our six under contract for next year, I'd just stand pat. The contract situation next year has to be resolved before next season or there's no next season. I would not trade any of these guys for a second round pick (because we don't value them) or an equivalent expiring deal. I just don't see the point. Morris' neck injury compromises this situation I guess. 

Everyone Else: Guys Who Can't Help a Contender

For the rest of the guys on the roster or on the fringe of the roster (I'm throwing in Devin Robinson and Jordan McCrae along with Baker and Randle), I'm assuming there's no value whatsoever for other teams, unless some team out there really sees value in Robinson. And if the Wiz ain't going to play Devin this year, I'd be fine getting something back for him just for his own sake and his career.

Sellers or Buyers?

I'm not sure how the Wizards viewed themselves in the Trevor Ariza deal. There's a realistic possibility that Ernie and Co. could really have been sitting around the conference room table at 601 F Street NW convincing themselves that Ariza was the missing piece for an Eastern Conference Finals run this season. With Wall out, they have to have disabused themselves of that notion, right? Right? I know, it's the Wiz front office and they don't think like I do. But they have to be sellers, right?

If they are not, what's the plan? Stand pat and re-sign Ariza, Morris and Green along with Satoransky, Bryant and Dekker? There's no way they can do that and be under the luxury tax line. In fact, they are likely to be way above the line and we all know Ted's just not at all interested in doing that. Also, I think there's some real doubt whether the team will be appreciably better than it is this year. Sure, Wall back healthy (hopefully) will help a ton but I'm not sure they are that much better. And it's moot because ownership is not going to pay for a team that costs north of $150 million in salary.

Draft Picks

What about draft picks? Won't those help fill the roster with cheap talent with tons of upside, especially if we shut the team down for the rest of the season and tank? What if we are bad enough to get the number one overall pick and get Zion Williamson?

Well, yep, all of that is true. And the idea of getting lucky and getting a super high draft pick while having Bradley Beal and a healthy John Wall on the team is really appealing. But there's still that issue of six players taking up more than 100% of next year's salary cap. There's no way the Wiz are doing any what if scenario, including winning the draft lottery, without trading or waiving at least one of the six under contract next year. That's it.

No Excuses

There are 22 Wizards home games remaining in this season. That's a lot of time to make up those three games that separate the Wiz from the Detroit Pistons at home. Then what? A first round loss to the Toronto Raptors or Milwaukee Bucks and the 15th pick in next year's draft who will sit on Scott Brooks' bench while mid-season castoffs from the New York Knicks get time on the floor? Sorry, Ron Baker. And maybe that situation has corrected itself now.

Those 22 remaining home games represent an investment of $5,984 on the part of yours truly and there's no way I'm getting that kind of value out of the rest of this season. That's a problem for me, especially in a season where I was promised the playoffs (Ted said "we have to make the playoffs"). This is the season of "no excuses" according to Wizards' ownership (again, Ted's words, not mine) where the aspirations were 50 games and the Eastern Conference Finals (not my words, again). Right now the Wizards have already lost 23 games. They can only afford to lose nine more in the final 44 if they want to get to the half century mark. There's no way that will happen. 50 games is dead. Eastern Conference Finals is dead. Sure, the playoffs are still possible but at what cost?

I'm betting despite Ted's talk before the season that there will be some excuses. I'm betting injuries are going to be all the excuse ownership of this team needs to explain to season ticket holders why the future is bright and that all we need to do is stay the course (at a couple of bucks more per ticket, no less). Ernie Grunfeld will still be running things and Scott Brooks will still be using questionable rotations while allowing the iso-heavy offense of the team to grind games to a halt and kill any long term chances that this team has of winning anything meaningful. 

No matter who is in charge of the Wizards next year, whether it's Ernie Grunfeld or someone else, they have to solve this salary cap issue with ownership insisting on not exceeding the luxury tax. I know I keep saying that but I think it's true. And that means they have to move one of the big three (I'm using that term loosely) or Ian Mahinmi or they will be in this same situation next year where we start the season with a roster that is really too pricey and start shipping pieces out to cut costs during the year. 

And they need to do it all while not making any silly mistakes, like trading the number five draft pick for two also-rans; or extending Andray Blatche when we didn't have to; or signing a Mahinmi-Nicholson-Smith combo as the solution to the team's future. Do we really want that same guy trying to restructure this roster with no excuses from the team owner? Change is coming whether anyone wants it or not. This roster as constructed is not sustainable. Sell! Sell! Sell! While there are teams out there willing to gamble big on a shot to win it all.

PYOB!

So we are two and a half-ish months into the 2018-2019 NBA season and the Wizards are screaming down the highway of irrelevancy at top speed. The hoped for recovery after a typical slow start to the season hasn't materialized like it has in past years and the team continuing to make trades to change the perimeter of the roster isn't going to make that much of a difference so here we are. Oh, and that's ignoring the fact that John Wall is done for the year. Happy new year! Although not really, I guess.

What am I going to do about it? How about blogging about pouring your own beer at Capital One Arena. Seems like an appropriate enough reaction to me. At least I'm not talking about effort or pride or playing hard or contested shots which are really wide open.

In case you missed it, a pour your own beer stand (officially the Over The Top self-serve beer stand) was added over the summer as part of the massive renovation project at Capital One Arena. If you've attended a few games this year and have still missed this gem, it's likely because it's on the typically half-full-on-game-days 400 level of the building. It's over by Section 417 on the north side of the building in case you want to go check it out after you read this post. Or before, if you are really impulsive. 

Instructions to PYOB. It all starts with scanning your $13.50 cup that you just bought. 

So how's it work? Well, it's pretty easy once you get a barcoded cup to start the process. There are  a series of six or so different screens displaying the various beer choices offered. Scan the code on your cup, pull the tap handle, tilt the cup like a professional beer pourer and fill your cup with sweet, sweet beer. From the time you scan your cup to the end of the pour you have 18 seconds. Seem unreasonable? It's not. There's more than enough time. No word on if you have extra cups if you can fill those with the remaining time (assuming not). Also no word on if you can pour from multiple taps simultaneously (your scan activates a bank which includes three taps.

Like most things in life, there are some good things about PYOB at Cap One and there are some not so good things. Let's start with the good. I got two things here.

First, the beer selection is better than in other spots around the building. I have never done a comprehensive beer survey of MCI Center or Verizon Center or Capital One Arena (believe me, it's crossed my mind a bunch of times) but I am not aware of any other spot in the place where I can get Dominion Oak Barrel Stout during a game. And I really like Oak Barrel Stout, although yes, I realize it's not as good as before Dominion sold out and turned the business over to Fordham but it's still pretty good.

Maybe a quick disclaimer is in order: only drink Bud Light at games? Probably need to go to a different stand. Sure you can get Bud Light here but why would you? You're just paying more (because it IS more expensive at PYOB) for the same product only you have to pour it yourself.

Second good thing: it was super easy once you have cup in hand. I have in the past had some performance anxiety about pouring my own beer, mostly stemming from cups of foam using hand pumps on kegs in someone's back porch in grad school. No such difficulty here. The operation was smooth and simple.

So, why wouldn't I do this all the time? Well besides the cost (I can get more been cheaper elsewhere in the building) and the distance (usually I sit in Section 109, three levels or one express escalator from the 400 level), it's confusing as hell.

I know, I know, I just said it was easy and smooth and simple. AFTER you get your cup. It's the getting the cup part that is difficult. 

Roll on up to the Over The Top stand and you will likely see a completely empty, customer-less bank of pour your own beer taps. It's not immediately obvious how you actually purchase a cup. Now in defense of the system, I guess, I've only tried to do this twice. The first time, there was someone standing just to the left of the taps with a scan device and access to a pile of cups, although it wasn't immediately obvious I should approach her because (1) the pile of cups wasn't visible and (2) she was talking to the person working the Over The Top food stand right next to PYOB. Eventually we asked her how we could get a cup and found out she was in fact the keeper of the cups. 

The second time I tried this, there was no person where we bought our cups the first time. The credit card scanner was there, just no person. We tried ordering a cup at the Over The Top stand and it just wasn't obvious that the drink options included buying a pour your own beer cup and the line was too long to just ask. So we left. No beer for us.

Credit card scanner but nobody to take our money.

I get that I haven't given this much of a chance, but with cheaper, quicker and more reliable beer options in the building, first impressions matter and I'm not likely heading back here again, even if they are the only spot (again, unconfirmed) where I can get an Oak Barrel Stout.

I've read on Twitter (great source of information, I know) that other stadiums and arenas in the country have tried a concept similar to this and have removed them. I haven't independently confirmed that in any way but if everyone's experience outside Section 417 at Cap One is any indication, it won't last long here. I'll stick with my 25 oz cans of Bud from the Budweiser Brewhouse. It's fun to do once I guess but I don't see the point of doing this long term and apparently from what I've seen at games, not too many other people do either. 

Oak Barrel Stout. Good stuff, just too impatient and too far to go through all this every time I'm at a game.