No Excuses

Right before the Charlotte game at the end of December, rumors leaked out that John Wall was considering season-ending surgery on his heel, which had apparently been bothering him for some time. Before the game was over, the Wizards had confirmed the rumor and the team faced the certainty of being without their starting point guard for the rest of the 2018-2019 season. Considering the team's current 15-23 record; come and go injuries to Wall, Otto Porter, Keef Morris and Dwight Howard; and their performance season-to-date, this season is over. I know, I know, there are fans out there looking at the standings and saying "hey, we are only three games out of eighth place." Sorry to be glass half full but trust me, it's over.

Now what? Change has to be coming, right? There's no way this team stands pat without making some major moves, right? Let's take a look at the Wizards' future with very, very, very simple salary cap math.

HAD to find a way to use this pic sometime this year.

Next Year's Roster (Right Now)

If there's no change in the Wizards roster between now and the start of the next NBA season, the Wizards will have five players under contract: John Wall, Otto Porter, Bradley Beal, Ian Mahinmi and Troy Brown. The combined salaries of those five players will be a shade over $111.7 million. With Dwight Howard having a $5.6 million player option on his current contract (why...), let's assume he picks that up (I mean, why wouldn't he?) and ticks the Wiz payroll up to $117.3 million.

The salary cap next year is projected by the NBA to be $109 million and the luxury tax line will be $23 million higher at a total of $132 million. Let's assume Ted Leonsis is willing to exceed the salary cap but not the luxury tax (I'm basing that on current behavior where the team is trying to shave dollars around the margins this season). That means with no serious changes to the roster, the team will have a little less than $15 million to fill eight roster spots, since the NBA won't let a team carry fewer than 14 players. That amount of money won't be enough to put a competitive roster around our six players.

What does this mean? To me, it means one or more of these six has to move without taking an equivalent salary commitment back for next year. Plain and simple, that's it. If we don't move Wall, Porter, Beal or Mahinmi, we will not be competitive next year. Maybe there's a shot at getting there the year after with the luxury tax line being raised to $143 million and no Mahinmi or Howard. But next year? No way! A trade or some other move (like waiving using the stretch provision which allows the cap hit to be spread over several years) has to be coming. Has to be!

Key Restricted Free Agents

In my book, the Wizards have three key free agents going into this offseason: Thomas Bryant, Sam Dekker and Tomas Satoransky. The great thing about the Wizards situation is they can exceed the salary cap to re-sign these players. The bad thing about the Wizards situation is that they won't, because signing all three will mean exceeding the luxury tax threshold. Heck, signing two might mean exceeding the luxury tax line and there would still only be eight players on the roster. 

If it were me, I'd be looking to re-sign at least two of these guys and at this point, I'd probably prioritize Bryant and Satoransky over Dekker, even though I think Dekker's game is solid and will only likely get better for the next few years at least. All of these three can be solid rotation players or starters for the Wizards for the next few years. 

I'm assuming the Wizards will wait to see what kind of interest these three draw on the open market before making an offer since the team will be able to match any offer presented by another team. But bottom line...I think there's value in all three of these guys and realistically, the team will still need to move one or more of Wall, Porter, Beal or Mahinmi to afford to retain even one of these guys.

Everyone Else: Guys Who Can Help a Contender

So the Wizards are in salary cap hell for next year at least without some kind of major move but they do have other folks on the roster right now. Let's assume for the purposes of this post that the rest (and by that I mean Trevor Ariza, Markieff Morris, Jeff Green, Chasson Randle and Ron Baker) are not in the Wizards' long term plans. And if they are not and the season is truly lost (as I think it is) then if the Wiz can get some value for these players, then they should. I mean if they like it that much in Washington they can always come back next year, albeit with maybe not as much salary flexibility. If they don't, they are gone anyway and the Wizards won't have anything to say about it.

If I were the Wizards, I'd be looking to move Ariza, Morris or Green and I'd be looking to do it with a seller's market mentality, meaning cap relief via cheaper contracts isn't the only thing I'd want back in return. I get that maybe the rest of the league doesn't view the Wizards as playing in a seller's market but if another team wants Ariza, Morris or Green without returning a first round draft pick or a young player on a rookie deal then I'd think we'd have to insist on them taking either Porter or Mahinmi for a series of expiring contracts. I know I'm making it sound easier than it is but if there's no substantial relief and there's no trading our six under contract for next year, I'd just stand pat. The contract situation next year has to be resolved before next season or there's no next season. I would not trade any of these guys for a second round pick (because we don't value them) or an equivalent expiring deal. I just don't see the point. Morris' neck injury compromises this situation I guess. 

Everyone Else: Guys Who Can't Help a Contender

For the rest of the guys on the roster or on the fringe of the roster (I'm throwing in Devin Robinson and Jordan McCrae along with Baker and Randle), I'm assuming there's no value whatsoever for other teams, unless some team out there really sees value in Robinson. And if the Wiz ain't going to play Devin this year, I'd be fine getting something back for him just for his own sake and his career.

Sellers or Buyers?

I'm not sure how the Wizards viewed themselves in the Trevor Ariza deal. There's a realistic possibility that Ernie and Co. could really have been sitting around the conference room table at 601 F Street NW convincing themselves that Ariza was the missing piece for an Eastern Conference Finals run this season. With Wall out, they have to have disabused themselves of that notion, right? Right? I know, it's the Wiz front office and they don't think like I do. But they have to be sellers, right?

If they are not, what's the plan? Stand pat and re-sign Ariza, Morris and Green along with Satoransky, Bryant and Dekker? There's no way they can do that and be under the luxury tax line. In fact, they are likely to be way above the line and we all know Ted's just not at all interested in doing that. Also, I think there's some real doubt whether the team will be appreciably better than it is this year. Sure, Wall back healthy (hopefully) will help a ton but I'm not sure they are that much better. And it's moot because ownership is not going to pay for a team that costs north of $150 million in salary.

Draft Picks

What about draft picks? Won't those help fill the roster with cheap talent with tons of upside, especially if we shut the team down for the rest of the season and tank? What if we are bad enough to get the number one overall pick and get Zion Williamson?

Well, yep, all of that is true. And the idea of getting lucky and getting a super high draft pick while having Bradley Beal and a healthy John Wall on the team is really appealing. But there's still that issue of six players taking up more than 100% of next year's salary cap. There's no way the Wiz are doing any what if scenario, including winning the draft lottery, without trading or waiving at least one of the six under contract next year. That's it.

No Excuses

There are 22 Wizards home games remaining in this season. That's a lot of time to make up those three games that separate the Wiz from the Detroit Pistons at home. Then what? A first round loss to the Toronto Raptors or Milwaukee Bucks and the 15th pick in next year's draft who will sit on Scott Brooks' bench while mid-season castoffs from the New York Knicks get time on the floor? Sorry, Ron Baker. And maybe that situation has corrected itself now.

Those 22 remaining home games represent an investment of $5,984 on the part of yours truly and there's no way I'm getting that kind of value out of the rest of this season. That's a problem for me, especially in a season where I was promised the playoffs (Ted said "we have to make the playoffs"). This is the season of "no excuses" according to Wizards' ownership (again, Ted's words, not mine) where the aspirations were 50 games and the Eastern Conference Finals (not my words, again). Right now the Wizards have already lost 23 games. They can only afford to lose nine more in the final 44 if they want to get to the half century mark. There's no way that will happen. 50 games is dead. Eastern Conference Finals is dead. Sure, the playoffs are still possible but at what cost?

I'm betting despite Ted's talk before the season that there will be some excuses. I'm betting injuries are going to be all the excuse ownership of this team needs to explain to season ticket holders why the future is bright and that all we need to do is stay the course (at a couple of bucks more per ticket, no less). Ernie Grunfeld will still be running things and Scott Brooks will still be using questionable rotations while allowing the iso-heavy offense of the team to grind games to a halt and kill any long term chances that this team has of winning anything meaningful. 

No matter who is in charge of the Wizards next year, whether it's Ernie Grunfeld or someone else, they have to solve this salary cap issue with ownership insisting on not exceeding the luxury tax. I know I keep saying that but I think it's true. And that means they have to move one of the big three (I'm using that term loosely) or Ian Mahinmi or they will be in this same situation next year where we start the season with a roster that is really too pricey and start shipping pieces out to cut costs during the year. 

And they need to do it all while not making any silly mistakes, like trading the number five draft pick for two also-rans; or extending Andray Blatche when we didn't have to; or signing a Mahinmi-Nicholson-Smith combo as the solution to the team's future. Do we really want that same guy trying to restructure this roster with no excuses from the team owner? Change is coming whether anyone wants it or not. This roster as constructed is not sustainable. Sell! Sell! Sell! While there are teams out there willing to gamble big on a shot to win it all.