When the 2013-2014 NBA schedule was released back in August of this year, I highlighted the Wizards' performance in the first 12 games of the season as a critical indicator of the season's success. Eight of the first 12 games were away from Verizon Center but only four of our opponents in those first dozen games made the playoffs last year. For a team last year that struggled on the road and against non-playoff opponents, I saw this first stretch of games as a potential bellwether of how our season might turn out.
Friday's road loss against the Toronto Raptors in Canada marked the twelfth game of the Wizards 2013-2014 season and I'm still not sure what we have. Our record this year is clearly way better at 4-8 than it was last year at 0-12 but my hopes that this year's team can duplicate last year's mid-season form, when we ran off a 21-15 record between January 7 and March 22, haven't been realized. In fact, I'm not sure we are any closer to understanding if this team is the playoff team they want to be after the first 15 percent of the season.
So in my confused fan state right now, and after having watched the Wizards knock off the New York Knicks last night behind a quality second half at Verizon Center, below is a six pack of thoughts about the first dozen games of the current season.
1. The East Is Terrible
OK, so this thought is not so much about the Wizards but about the Eastern Conference in general. But this fact, unless it changes drastically, is going to continue to keep the Wizards in playoff contention even if our record continues to languish below .500. At the close of Friday night's games, only four teams in the Eastern Conference could claim winning records: the Indiana Pacers, Miami Heat, Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls. Every other team in the conference, including the Atlantic Division leading Toronto Raptors and championship hopefuls the Brooklyn Nets and New York Knicks, had lost more than they had won.
The Conference is almost begging a team or two to take a step forward and fill in behind the four winning teams listed above and I don't see why that can't be the Wizards. Sure, we're not going to win the Eastern Conference title this year. As of this date, that looks like a two team race between the Pacers and Heat. But why not step up and make the playoffs, even if it's as a seven or eight seed? I see an enormous opportunity, especially with the Nets and Knicks in questionable at best shape. Go for it guys!
2. What Happened to the D?
Last year the Wizards managed to finish in the top third in the league in defensive efficiency behind some underrated individual defenders and some solid team defense. This year, the Wizards are hovering around the top of the bottom third of the league in that same category. Better than at the bottom of the bottom third, but not like last year.
I guess I'm hoping that part of this is early season jitters. In the first month of the season teams often struggle to defend more than they do score. Great defense over a long period of time relies on team play and a deep understanding of defensive schemes and responsibilities. Everybody has to be on the same page. Great individual offensive outputs can often be pulled off at the expense of poor defense and thus it's easier to have great individual offensive games than great team defensive success.
But there's no doubt we miss Emeka Okafor and probably to a lesser extent A.J. Price. I'm not knocking the Emeka for Marcin Gortat trade. I completely believe we made the right move to bring someone like Marcin in (we'll talk about the draft pick later) but he's not a premiere rim protector like Emeka. The last line of defense is often missing at the hoop without Okafor. We've been exposed badly in some situations especially by opposing teams' point guards either dribble penetrating or cutting to the rim without the ball. Hopefully with time and commitment from everyone, team D will improve to maybe the low teens.
3. The Team Is Paper Thin
One of the most glaring deficiencies about the Wizards team last year was a noticeable lack of depth. Other than Trevor Ariza, we really lacked dependability when we went beyond the starting five. Four of our roster spots were taken by guys (Trevor Booker, Kevin Seraphin, Chris Singleton and Jan Vesely) who were inconsistent at best, and that may be really kind, and we had effectively no backcourt depth.
So one of the off season priorities for the front office seemed to be to correct that situation. We re-signed Martell Webster, inked Eric Maynor to back up the point guard position and towards the end of the summer added free agent Al Harrington. I'm not sure that's fixed our lack of depth. Before the game against the Raptors Friday night the Wizards ranked 29th in bench scoring, ahead of only their opponent that night. In the 96-88 loss that night, the Wizards amassed only nine bench points, far behind Toronto's 25.
Admittedly, both Ariza and Harrington missed that game due to injuries, but Jan Vesely being the first man off the bench speaks volumes about the team's depth. Despite Jan's improved play in this first month, he can still only score on fast break and putback opportunities. Maynor as the backup point guard hasn't added much at all so far and I don't think Garrett Temple, while a quality third string guard, is the answer as a first backup in the backcourt. The team has managed to pull off wins in three of the five games both Ariza and Harringon have missed which is encouraging. But eventually somebody needs to step up and become a dependable bench player. Maybe first round draft pick Otto Porter is the guy, if he ever gets over the hip flexor and suits up.
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| Marcin Gortat's addition has been key through the first 12. I can't imagine where we would be without him. |
The Wizards' roster this year consists of four true backcourt players, one true center and ten other frontcourt players. Martell Webster and Trevor Ariza are still being used as shooting guards for periods in some games but they are really small forwards. Who's kidding who there?
One of the reasons for the Wizards being so forward heavy is our draft history. In 2010 we nabbed two forwards in the draft in Kevin Seraphin and Trevor Booker. A year later we selected Jan Vesely and Chris Singleton. Despite middling or lower production over the years each of those guys has been on the team, they are still all under contract and consuming roster spots. At this point in the season, only one of those four is averaging more than 15 minutes per game (Vesely) and the four combined are contributing less than ten points per contest. Singleton's out with an injury so these comments are a little unfair to him, but I'm not sure he's cracking the rotation in a significant way. That's four first round picks taking up almost 30 percent of the roster and contributing less than ten percent of the offense. Ideally, I'd love to have someone more dependable in one of those spots. Fortunately, all four are not under contract next year; that doesn't help us this year.
I see two potential personnel decisions that might loom large in the coming year. First, Eric Maynor has a player option on a second year with the team. I know it's only 12 games in but Maynor does not appear to be the answer at the backup point guard position. There's such a noticeable dropoff between him and John Wall. Second, there's that 2014 first round draft pick we gave to the Phoenix Suns in the Okafor-Gortat trade. I hate trading first round draft picks but if it gets us into the playoffs this year, it's probably worth it. If it doesn't, Gortat's likely gone and so is our draft pick at some point.
5. There Are Concentration Lapses
I know basketball is famously a game of runs. More than any other sport mostly due to just the frequency of scoring in the games, there are going to be periods in the game when teams just outscore the other team by an astounding margin. And it's likely going to happen whether you are the winning team or the losing team. Having said that, the Wizards' scoring droughts in some games have been so obvious and noticeable that it has either put them totally out of the game; put the game out of reach quickly; or almost wasted an outstanding effort.
Most noticeable in the first 12 games were the San Antonio Spurs' 16-0 run after the Wizards had battled back to within three in the third quarter; the Oklahoma City Thunder's ten point comeback to force overtime with less than three and a half minutes to play; and the Cleveland Cavaliers' 36-13 run to almost steal the win after the Wizards led by 27. In each case, the Wizards seemed to lose focus on what it was they were supposed to be doing on the court, and they lapsed into lazy, one-on-one hero ball and it cost them at least the Oklahoma City game and it almost took the Cleveland game from them. We haven't won in San Antonio since 1999, so it's pretty difficult for me to argue that unselfish play would have won that game.
I know this team is young to the point where arguably the two best players on the team are 20 and 23 (in Bradley Beal and John Wall) and I also realize neither of those two has had a veteran to mentor and teach them how to play their positions at the NBA level. But they have got to remember to listen to head coach Randy Wittman. I'm sure Randy is reminding them to share the ball and run the offense. They need to do it. It will save Randy's job and may save the season.
6. We Should Be 7-5
I'll end these observations on a hopeful note. In all honesty, this team should have won seven of the first 12, not four of first 12. We held a double digit lead against both Philadelphia and Cleveland in the second half at home and managed to squander both games and let the visitors walk off with a victory. We also had the Thunder dead to rights in Oklahoma City before Nenê picked up his second technical foul and the team lost all focus. There were also no games we won in the first 12 that we should have lost, so the three additional victories we should have is a true number.
In spite of that optimism, however, we didn't win seven of the first dozen games but the three we threw away should serve as a reminder for the team to realize they can achieve a winning record if they put forth 48 minutes of concentrated effort per game. I know that's going to be difficult for this team. Ideally everyone would like a few games where they can mail them in, but it doesn't appear our team is talented enough to do that. 48 minutes guys, not 36, 40 or even 44. 48! Do that every game and we might be OK.
On to the next 72! I feel better than I did last year.
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