Attrition

Every year since the 2014-2015 season, the Washington Wizards have been putting the names of each and every one of their season ticket holders on the court at Verizon Center / Capital One Arena. It's a pretty cool gesture that builds a little value and costs virtually nothing for the team to do. Once or twice a year (this year it was once), the team lets season ticketholders stay after a selected game and check out their names right there on the hardwood where the Wizards play. I skipped my session this year; I had sold my tickets that night and I already saw my name the prior game during my latest VIP session vs. the Cavs.

If you haven't noticed the names on the court while you've either been at a game live or watching on TV, I'm not surprised. They are pretty darned small. You might have noticed (but honestly probably not) sometime over the last half dozen years a sticker on the sides of the court on the opposite side from the player's benches that reads something like "DC FAMILY" or "dcRISING" or "@WASHWIZARDS". These are where the names of the season ticket holders are. 

It occurred to me last year when the Wizards sent this notice out that they are essentially publishing their list of season ticketholders here. Or close enough; they are actually just printing the way the season ticketholder wants their name printed and for most people this is probably the same thing. I then wondered if I could get an idea of how much season ticketholder attrition there was year to year just by saving last year's list and comparing to this year's. Yes, this would mean matching names year by year. Yes, this would be extremely tedious and a complete waste of time. Yes, I did it anyway.

If you had asked me what I would have expected at the start of this exercise I would have said three things: (1) the old time season ticket holder numbers, say 15+ years at this point, would be fairly stable; I mean after this much punishment and disappointment, why not keep coming back? (2) there would be obvious surges in season ticketholder numbers after successful season and not so much after failing to make the playoffs and (3) there would be substantially fewer numbers of season ticketholders this year than last year.

Before I get to all that,  a few clarifications. The years referred to below are the years when the season ticketholder started purchasing tickets. In other words, if the first purchase was for the 1999-2000 season, that account belongs to the nineties. Second, 2019 denotes this current season; 2018 is last season (mansplaining, I know). Finally, I'm merging the sixties and seventies together because there's only one account still active from the 1960s (1967, if you must know and it's Acme Paper. Kudos to them for sticking it out this long).

Here's how the list of names on the on court stickers breaks down by decade, this year vs. last year.

The Sixties and Seventies
2018 Number: 34
2019 Number: 26

The Eighties
2018 Number: 87
2019 Number: 66

The Nineties
2018 Number: 182
2019 Number: 140

The Aughts (or 2000s if you prefer)
2018 Number: 336
2019 Number: 245

The Teens (2010 to now)
2018 Number: 1,637
2019 Number: 928

These numbers represent the number of names on the court as counted by me. I have no idea if they are precisely the number of season ticketholders. But I have to think it's pretty close. Also, in checking the names (and yes, I checked every name) there were some names on the 2019 list that were not on the 2018 list. I'm assuming these are name changes based on season ticketholder preference. I know the company I work for has tickets. The 2018 sticker had one of our employees names on it; the 2019 one has our company name. In any event, I think the numbers above are close enough to accurate within say 1-2%. That's close enough for the conclusions I'm going to draw in this post.

Overall, from this year to last year based on counting names, the Wizards season ticket holder number dropped by 38.9%. In one year. I don't have historical context here to know if that number is high or low but I have to believe that is not the kind of attrition rate anyone in client management wants. Now, these numbers might represent way fewer dollars. If the 38.9% drop is solely in the upper deck, then the actual dollars lost is way, way lower.

Here's the bad news for the Wizards: the attrition rate is actually worse. The numbers above include the 114 new names added in 2019. The actual attrition rate for 1967 through 2018 is 43.8%. Yikes! The attrition rate for the nine years from 2010 through 2018 is slightly higher than 50%. I find this a little shocking. This can't say success on any level to the team.

Digging into the details, I'm surprised at a few things. First, as I assumed, it appears the number of season ticketholders spikes after playoff seasons. Generally the numbers are higher in seasons after playoff runs. But not always. There are still a substantial number of season ticketholders remaining from the 2011 season, the one where the team slashed a number of per seat prices in half. I'm surprised these people have stuck with it now that their cost has about doubled or maybe more.

I'm also surprised by the departures of '60s, '70s and '80s season ticketholders. Their attrition rate from 2018 to 2019 is over 20%. I guess enough was finally enough for some of those folks. These people (and indeed those with a little less tenure) should be hugely valued by the team. Although I guess when there are this few, it hardly seems worth bending over backwards to make a few people stay. Personally, I feel that in the customer service efforts over the last 10 years.

I'm not sure I really learned anything astonishing here and I don't think it was a total waste of time spending hours counting names but I'm glad I did it. I'm glad I know. And it sure does explain my account rep calling me way earlier than anyone has in past years.